Transition to Global Society as a Singularity

* Article / Chapter: The Transition to Global Society as a Singularity of Social Evolution. By Sergey Dobrolyubov. Chapter in: The 21st Century Singularity and Global Futures pp 535–558, January 2020

URL = https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-33730-8_24

Part of the World-Systems Evolution and Global Futures book series (WSEGF)

Abstract

" Dobrolyubov considers three phases of social evolution: Adaptive, Structural and Cognitive (in the past, present, and future, respectively).

These phases are separated by two transitions (which can also be considered as two singularities) — the Neolithic and the Global transitions.

Social evolution is based on the phases’ differing means of individual and societal competition.

• In the present Structural Phase, individual competition leads to inequality, whereas societal competition leads to greater uniformity of societal structure. The combination of societal expansion and evolutionary growth limits lead to lifecycles of societies. The size of interacting societies tends to increase throughout evolution towards inclusion of all humankind. This global society can be considered a final point (singularity) of the Structural evolution phase.

Then society’s metamorphosis further continues in the Cognitive Phase, which might rely directly on individuals’ need for cognition and self-realization, and not on social institutions.

A mathematical trend is developed for the timing of these transformations towards this global singularity. It estimates a transformation to a distinct, larger societal organization type every 2000 years starting with the early Neolithic settlements in 10,000 BCE and culminating in the Global singularity in about 4000 CE."

Details

As summarized by ChatGPT:

Three Phases of Social Evolution

1. Adaptive Phase (Past):

Description: This phase corresponds to the early stages of human social evolution, characterized by humans adapting to their environment through trial and error. Survival depended heavily on individuals' and small groups' ability to adjust to immediate challenges like securing food, shelter, and avoiding threats.

Competition: Competition in this phase was primarily individual and group-based, with success measured by direct survival and reproductive outcomes.

Transition (Neolithic Revolution): The shift to the Structural Phase was marked by the Neolithic Revolution (~10,000 BCE), a singularity in social evolution where humans transitioned from hunter-gatherer societies to agricultural settlements. This change introduced new societal structures, such as permanent settlements, domestication of animals, and the beginnings of organized governance.

2. Structural Phase (Present):

Description: This phase defines the present era of social evolution, marked by complex societal structures such as nation-states, corporations, and global markets. Societies compete with one another, and individuals compete within these frameworks. Individual Competition: In this phase, individual competition often leads to inequality, with social hierarchies and economic disparities becoming prominent.

Societal Competition: Societies evolve toward greater uniformity in structure and organization. Examples include globalization trends, where political, economic, and cultural systems become increasingly interconnected and standardized. Expansion and Lifecycles: Societies expand geographically and culturally but face evolutionary limits, leading to cycles of societal growth and collapse. Over time, societies evolve to interact on increasingly larger scales, progressing toward the ultimate inclusion of all humankind.

Transition (Global Singularity): The next transition, referred to as the Global Singularity, is anticipated to occur as the Structural Phase reaches its culmination. At this point, all of humanity is expected to be integrated into a single global society. This marks the final stage of the Structural Phase, setting the stage for a radical metamorphosis.

3. Cognitive Phase (Future):

Description: The Cognitive Phase represents the speculative future of social evolution. It foresees a society based not on external institutions or hierarchies but on individuals' intrinsic needs for cognition, creativity, and self-realization.

Competition: Competition shifts away from societal frameworks and hierarchies, instead focusing on the intellectual and psychological fulfillment of individuals.

New Social Paradigm: This phase may involve decentralized systems where institutions no longer dominate individuals. Instead, a more personal and intrinsic drive shapes societal evolution, potentially enabled by advanced technology, AI, or a deeper understanding of consciousness.

Transitions Between Phases

1. Neolithic Transition (~10,000 BCE):

Marked by the development of agriculture, settlement, and early forms of social organization. Transitioned humanity from a nomadic, adaptive lifestyle to structured societies.

2. Global Transition (~4000 CE):

Envisions a culmination of Structural Phase evolution, integrating all human societies into a global network. Represents the singularity where humanity's current societal structures reach their maximum complexity and begin transitioning into the Cognitive Phase.

Timing of Transformations

A mathematical trend is proposed that places major societal transitions at roughly 2,000-year intervals. These transformations include shifts in the dominant types of societal organization, starting from the Neolithic settlements (10,000 BCE):

~10,000 BCE: Early agricultural settlements

~8,000 BCE: Advancements in societal organization

~6,000 BCE onward: Development of hierarchical city-states

~4,000 BCE: Early empires and significant cultural expansions

~2000 CE: Modern globalized society

~4000 CE: Predicted Global Singularity leading to the Cognitive Phase.

Key Concepts

Singularities:

The Neolithic Revolution and the Global Singularity serve as pivotal moments where societal organization fundamentally transforms. These singularities are moments of profound societal redefinition, reshaping both competition and cooperation.

Cycle Dynamics:

Societal evolution involves cycles of growth, adaptation, and collapse, with each cycle occurring on a progressively larger scale and incorporating more of humanity.

Global Integration:

The current trajectory points toward a unified global society, which will be the culmination of the Structural Phase.

Shift to Intrinsic Value:

The Cognitive Phase may redefine societal priorities, moving away from institutional structures toward individual fulfillment and intellectual growth.