Planetary Phase Shift
Context
Nafeez Ahmed:
"We are in the midst of a planetary phase shift: a planetary-scale metamorphosis that will determine not just our geopolitical and economic future in the near term, but the very fate of the human species in the long term. Humanity finds herself on the cusp of the next great leap in our evolution potentially heralding the end of scarcity within our lifetimes. But if we fail to leap, we could abort this momentum and plunge into an abyss.
Clues to the dynamics of this planetary phase shift can be seen in the way change works at far smaller scales of physical, chemical, and biological systems. At these scales a “sharp transition” in the degree of organisation within the system can be triggered by rapidly shifting external pressures – such as when we apply heat to boil water, turning it into steam.
At these small scales, scientists measure the ‘phase’ of a system – its level of organisation – by examining relevant physical forces like temperature and magnetism. But on the planetary scale involving human civilisation and its relationship to the earth, understanding the ‘phase’ of the entire planetary system requires a much wider lens capable of making sense of the astonishing complexity of human and earth systems.
When we do this, we can see that the very same patterns of change we find among molecules and cells, are playing out across societies and civilisations through the evolutionary march of culture and technology."
(https://ageoftransformation.org/the-end-of-scarcity-from-polycrisis-to-planetary-phase-shift/)
Article
* Article: "Planetary phase shift" as a new systems framework to navigate the evolutionary transformation of human civilisation. By Nafeez Ahmed. Foresight: The Journal of Futures Studies, 2024 doi
"Planetary phase shift theory offers a new collective anticipatory intelligence framework for foresight study and practice, formalising the notion that humanity has arrived at an unprecedented historical and geological turning point. It is based on a transdisciplinary integration of C. S. Holling’s adaptive cycle with phase transition theory at societal and civilisational scales. This framework is used to assess empirical data across energy, transport, food and information, revealing that the proliferation of multiple global crises across earth and human systems is related to the last stages of the life-cycle of global industrial civilisation. The planetary phase shift implies that humanity has arrived at an evolutionary turning point that is either the precursor for collapse, or a new civilisational life-cycle representing the next stage in the material and cultural evolution of the human species. This life-cycle could comprise a networked ‘postmaterialist’ ecological civilisation unleashing an unprecedented possibility space for post-carbon prosperity within planetary boundaries. Yet its success requires a fundamental reorganisation of the governance, economy, politics, culture, worldview and value-system of our societies, guiding the design and acceleration of key technologies."
More information
- The Adaptive Cycle