Foundational Sector Disruptions in the Lifecycle of Civilizations
* Report: Rethinking Humanity: Five Foundational Sector Disruptions, the Lifecycle of Civilizations, and the Coming Age of Freedom. By James Arbib and Tony Seb. Rethinx, 2021.
URL = https://learn-rethinkx-com.sandbox.hs-sites.com/publications/rethinkinghumanity2020.en?
Discussion
Nafeez Ahmed:
"Information disruption has played a crucial role in the disruption of the global oil industry. In Rethinking Humanity ... James Arbib and Tony Seba explain how the arrival of the smartphone not only disrupted the telecoms market, but disrupted retail, food and transport with the introduction of ride-hailing and food delivery services. It also drove rapid improvements in lithium-ion batteries which, in turn, went on to make EVs far more affordable and competitive.
Cheaper EVs with increasingly powerful batteries has meant their cost per mile is rapidly becoming cheaper than gasoline vehicles. As ride-hailing converges with EVs, that lower cost per mile will make Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) more affordable than owning and running your own private car. When the information disruption makes autonomous EVs viable (A-EVs), TaaS will become so cheap – approximately ten times cheaper to be more precise – that it will strongly reduce individual car ownership and become the predominant paradigm for transport. That’s because, as RethinkX co-founder Tony Seba has said: “A 10x cost differential has always caused a disruption in history. Every single time.”
But of course, the information disruption did not stop at energy or transport. The application of information to materials has led to dramatic improvements in precision biology, which have driven down the costs of precision fermentation and cellular agriculture (PFCA) for the production of animal proteins without killing the animal.
This is driving a revolution in food production that is already on track to become cost-competitive with the livestock industry as early as 2025, and which will become ten times cheaper in as little as ten years. Shortly thereafter, it will only be a matter of time before the technology will begin disrupting industrial agriculture for products like soybeans and palm oil."
(https://www.rethinkx.com/blog/part-1-the-mythology-of-mineral-shortages)