Tokens: Difference between revisions
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==The long-term value of tokens== | |||
Dick Bryan: | |||
"Long-term token values will be determined by three factors: | |||
The current valuation of a token business | |||
Projections of the future positions of that business | |||
The level of ‘speculation’ on crypto assets and financial assets generally | |||
We know that the third factor is impossible to explain. It depends on what Keynes called ‘animal spirits’. It is likely that speculation will remain high, for this is an immature market with rapid new entry in a sector of the capital market with widely-appreciated potential but low levels of technical comprehension. It makes valuation difficult, but it is unavoidable. | |||
The second factor is also impossible to know with certainty. We know that the emerging landscape of cryptographically enabled distributed economic and social systems is changing exponentially, and that there will be some extraordinary success stories and some dismal failures. But we cannot yet know which is which. There is a proposition that, in this dimension, tokens be equated with call options: the right to participate in/own an as yet unknown future. It is an important insight, although our capacity to value the option is also limited. Critical to pricing options is quantifying the volatility of the underlying asset and the time to maturity. We cannot yet model volatility, and we cannot know the time horizons of success. | |||
But the first factor can potentially be known for crypto tokens that exist to produce something: an accountable, measurable value of some kind. This is an area where many token launches are vague, if not entirely silent. But it is the one domain in which current tokens can and should be critically valued. We face the danger that too many coin issuances are pitching an idea, but without nominating means to measure/validate its success. | |||
A thought experiment: the ECSA economy proposes to define and measure value as it has never before been measured. We want to measure value in terms of social contribution, not contribution only to profit. We want to measure produced social benefits, and most of them do not make conventionally-defined profits. Recognising the existence of these contributions is not new. Measuring them in terms of a new unit of account is new. But is it possible? | |||
The measurement process is important if we would like to report to the public, each year, estimates of the value of output created within ECSA. Our thinking right now is that financial markets place a value on this production. In combination with available data like the quantum of tokens in circulation and the balance sheets of ECSA, we believe that the ‘market’ will be able to assess the fundamental current value of ECSA. This is critical for the market needs this information to make clear evaluation of the current value of ECSA tokens." | |||
(https://medium.com/econaut/valuation-crisis-and-crypto-economy-39c5b7e373af) | |||
[[Category:Money]] | [[Category:Money]] | ||
Revision as of 13:21, 17 May 2018
= virtual currencies used in companies based on blockchains
Description
"Tokens are the new “new” thing in the blockchain space. Just when everyone thought that blockchains were hot enough, everyone realized that tokens *are* the business model for Web 3.0.
A decentralized system spreads control among many parties. It may or may not be tokenized. The key benefit of tokens is to align incentives among participants of the ecosystem. It’s a positive-sum game among the tribe of token holders. (And let’s not forget the windfall of a token launch, if you choose that path.)
So far, only startups have launched tokens. But what about enterprises? Could we tokenize Facebook? What about Amazon or IBM? How? What would be the benefit? In short: tokens will eat the enterprise from within, because investors will make money and the community will gain. We’ll have crypto tribes that started as companies. Repeat across many enterprises and it means goodbye to the stock market." (https://blog.bigchaindb.com/tokenize-the-enterprise-23d51bafb536)
Discussion
Designing Tokens for the Commons Economy
Akseli Virtanen:
"In their money role, crypto-tokens can be an alternative unit of account, not just a means of exchange. They open a possibility to invoke a new measure of value, not just facilitate new processes of trade. As such, tokens can have a ‘backing’ in the value of output they facilitate, and not function simply as tools of speculative position-taking. Here is their radicalness, that they open a possibility of re-thinking and re-engineering what we understand by production. What are the new social units of production? How is such production measured as a social contribution? How is output distributed, accessed and owned? Re-defining and re-measuring production provides the material basis of the crypto economy — a basis that gives crypto-tokens a long-term future as the currency of an alternative economic logic. A different way of doing economy." (https://medium.com/econaut/cryptoeconomics-working-sessions-at-nyu-stern-24a60d99d243)
Tokens as Derivatives
"We don’t know yet what tokens can do. To approach tokens only as “money” or “assets” is to approach through an old paradigm. In their ownership role, crypto-tokens can be derivatives (purchases of risk exposure, not just asset ownership) designed so that people risk together, not individually. They are distributed economic-organizational systems. Organizing tools in the interactive logic of contingent claims and speculative positions. Just like derivatives, tokens can work as collective tools, as collective approaches to risk taking, as ways to share the upsides created by facing change (volatility) together. Can we think, design, and use these decentralized organizational-economic applications (these “tokens 2.0”, these “cryptographically enabled distributed economic and social systems”) as derivatives in precisely this sense? Can we think them as a new value form?" (https://medium.com/econaut/cryptoeconomics-working-sessions-at-nyu-stern-24a60d99d243)
The long-term value of tokens
Dick Bryan:
"Long-term token values will be determined by three factors:
The current valuation of a token business Projections of the future positions of that business The level of ‘speculation’ on crypto assets and financial assets generally We know that the third factor is impossible to explain. It depends on what Keynes called ‘animal spirits’. It is likely that speculation will remain high, for this is an immature market with rapid new entry in a sector of the capital market with widely-appreciated potential but low levels of technical comprehension. It makes valuation difficult, but it is unavoidable.
The second factor is also impossible to know with certainty. We know that the emerging landscape of cryptographically enabled distributed economic and social systems is changing exponentially, and that there will be some extraordinary success stories and some dismal failures. But we cannot yet know which is which. There is a proposition that, in this dimension, tokens be equated with call options: the right to participate in/own an as yet unknown future. It is an important insight, although our capacity to value the option is also limited. Critical to pricing options is quantifying the volatility of the underlying asset and the time to maturity. We cannot yet model volatility, and we cannot know the time horizons of success.
But the first factor can potentially be known for crypto tokens that exist to produce something: an accountable, measurable value of some kind. This is an area where many token launches are vague, if not entirely silent. But it is the one domain in which current tokens can and should be critically valued. We face the danger that too many coin issuances are pitching an idea, but without nominating means to measure/validate its success.
A thought experiment: the ECSA economy proposes to define and measure value as it has never before been measured. We want to measure value in terms of social contribution, not contribution only to profit. We want to measure produced social benefits, and most of them do not make conventionally-defined profits. Recognising the existence of these contributions is not new. Measuring them in terms of a new unit of account is new. But is it possible?
The measurement process is important if we would like to report to the public, each year, estimates of the value of output created within ECSA. Our thinking right now is that financial markets place a value on this production. In combination with available data like the quantum of tokens in circulation and the balance sheets of ECSA, we believe that the ‘market’ will be able to assess the fundamental current value of ECSA. This is critical for the market needs this information to make clear evaluation of the current value of ECSA tokens." (https://medium.com/econaut/valuation-crisis-and-crypto-economy-39c5b7e373af)