Using Sankey Diagrams To Electrify One Billion Machines with Renewable Energy
Contextual Quote
"let’s ... start looking at where our energy comes from, where it goes, and count all the machines along the way. What are those energy sources, where are all those machines and what are they? Once we know, we can electrify them."
- Saul Griffith [1]
Discussion
Saul Griffith:
"It’s hard for many people to imagine the pathway to achieving net-zero emissions in time to keep global heating under 1.5–2.0 degrees C above pre-industrial levels. But that pathway can be simply stated: electrify (almost) everything.
It’s time to demystify decarbonization so that we understand what we need to do to switch our economy from one that relies on fossil fuels to one powered by clean electricity. This requires understanding the machines we use, their energy needs, and how, and how quickly, we can transition those machines to ones that are fueled by renewable energy (predominantly wind and solar).
With the goal of identifying the industrial and economic opportunities associated with achieving net-zero emissions for the U.S., it’s useful to start with a list of the demand-side machines that drive our consumption of fossil fuels, and a list of the electrical infrastructure machines that will enable us to provide modern electric alternatives and substitutes. The accounting is based on published data sets — Sankey diagrams the Department of Energy and other agencies created in the 1970s to understand energy usage in light of the oil crisis. The Sankey diagrams show how energy from the supply side (those big fossil fuel producers) flows to the demand side (our cars, dryers, heaters, and other small appliances). We can get granular about where our energy comes from and goes, so we know just how much energy we need to replace to fight the climate crisis. When we do an accounting of where our energy comes from (supply side) and where it goes (demand side), we can see that in order to decarbonize our economy, we must electrify approximately one billion machines."
(https://saulgriffith.medium.com/one-billion-machines-48a7c3cf0694)
Status
Saul Griffith:
"The tally ends up at 1,063,000,000, which is just a little more than a billion machines. That means that 1 billion machines, or 50 million machines a year for the next 20–25 years, is a first-pass approximation at the task to be completed.
On the supply side, that’s a small number of machines that last about 50 years–machines that produce energy, like oil wells (bad!) or wind turbines (good!). On the demand side, that’s a large number of machines that last about 25 years — machines we use in our homes and businesses, like gas-powered trucks, lawnmowers, heaters, and hot tubs (bad!) or their electric equivalents like EVs, heat pumps, and electric-powered appliances backed by solar and wind (good!). It’s about one million large machines and one billion small ones.
This may sound like a lot, but we already have an extraordinary rate of annual machine sales and production. The U.S. manufactures around 12 million automobiles a year, and with imports included, purchases around 17 million. That’s 340 million vehicles in 20 years. Similarly we purchase around 9 million water heaters a year already. The challenge isn’t about making new machines as much as it is about making sure our machines are electric and powered by renewables or nuclear. Now let’s get a little more granular, and start looking at where our energy comes from, where it goes, and count all the machines along the way. What are those energy sources, where are all those machines and what are they? Once we know, we can electrify them."
(https://saulgriffith.medium.com/one-billion-machines-48a7c3cf0694)