Types of Temporal Societal and Civilizational Cycles

= The 'Civilizational Cycles Cheatsheet' compiled with the assistance of the Civilizational Research Institute:

Cycles sorted by length)

1. Kondratiev Cycles (50 years, political economy) (Kondratiev]
2. Fourth Turning / Saeculum (100 years, generational) (Strauss, Howe)
3. Hegemonic cycle (100 years) (Modelski)
4. Learning cycle (250 years) (Modelski)
5. Centralization-Decentralization cycle (500 years) (Hillis, Spengler)
6. Value regime change cycle (500 years) (Karatani, Bauwens)
7. Civilizational cycle (1000 years) (Spengler)

Kondratiev Cycles

The Kondratiev cycle, also known as the K-wave or long economic cycle, is a 50-year cycle in the modern world economy. Identified by Nikolai Kondratiev, this cycle consists of alternating periods of high and low sectoral growth. It typically includes:

1. High growth period

2. Peak

3. Low growth period

4. Collapse

5. Transition period

The cycle is closely tied to technological innovations and their diffusion throughout the economy. Examples of technologies driving Kondratiev cycles include:

- 1780-1830: Steam engine, textile industry - 1830-1880: Railway, steel - 1880-1930: Electrical engineering, chemistry - 1930-1970: Automobiles, petrochemicals - 1970-2010: Information technology - 2010-present: Artificial intelligence, renewable energy

This cycle is particularly relevant to political economy, as it often correlates with periods of social upheaval and technological revolution.

Fourth Turning== (Saeculum) Cycle

The Fourth Turning, also known as the Saeculum cycle, is a generational theory proposed by William Strauss and Neil Howe. In contrast to the Kondratiev cycle, the generational cycle focuses on the renewal and decline of civic institutions, such as changes in forms of governance. This 100-year cycle consists of four "turnings," each lasting about 20-25 years:

1. First Turning (High): A period of strong institutions and weakening individualism.

2. Second Turning (Awakening): A time of spiritual upheaval, when new values regime challenges the old order.

3. Third Turning (Unraveling): An era of strengthening individualism and weakening institutions.

4. Fourth Turning (Crisis): A period of destruction or revolution, when society focuses on reorganizing institutions.

Examples from recent American history:

- First Turning: Post-World War II boom (1946-1964) - Second Turning: Consciousness Revolution (1964-1984) - Third Turning: Culture Wars, Postmodernism (1984-2008) - Fourth Turning: Global Financial Crisis and beyond (2008-present)

This cycle provides a framework for understanding generational changes in society and predicting broad social trends.

Hegemonic Cycle

The Hegemonic cycle, also known as the Long Cycle of Global Politics, is a 100-year cycle in global power dynamics. Developed by George Modelski, this theory suggests that world politics has been dominated by a succession of global powers. The cycle typically includes:

1. Global War

2. World Power

3. Delegitimation

4. Deconcentration

Examples of hegemonic powers in recent centuries:

- Portugal (15th-16th centuries) - Netherlands (16th-17th centuries) - United Kingdom (18th-19th centuries) - United States (20th-21st centuries)

Each hegemon has contributed to the evolution of the global system, often through technological and organizational innovations. The theory suggests that as one power declines, a period of global conflict ensues before a new hegemon emerges. This cycle provides insights into long-term patterns of international relations and global governance. Stein, in his essay Education Must Make History Again: Remembering Comenius in a Time between Worlds, published in Perspectiva in 2022, offers a slightly different framing of the hegemonic cycle.

Learning Cycle

The Learning cycle (most associated with George Modelski), spanning approximately 250 years, is a concept in civilizational theory that focuses on the accumulation and transformation of knowledge across generations. While less formally defined than some other cycles, it encompasses:

1. Acquisition of new knowledge

2. Integration of knowledge into existing systems

3. Transformation of societal structures based on new understanding

4. Crisis or limitation of current knowledge paradigm

5. Emergence of new questions or challenges

Examples of learning cycles in history:

- Classical Greek philosophy to Hellenistic science (5th century BCE - 2nd century CE) - Medieval scholasticism to Renaissance humanism (11th - 16th centuries) - Enlightenment to Industrial Revolution (17th - 19th centuries) - Modern science to Information Age (19th - 21st centuries)

This cycle highlights the role of knowledge and learning in shaping civilizational development and provides a framework for understanding long-term intellectual and cultural trends.

Further reading: https://wiki.p2pfoundation.net/Long-Term_Trends_in_Politics

Centralization-Decentralization Cycle

The Centralization-Decentralization cycle is a 500-year pattern observed in the organization of societies and political structures. This cycle alternates between periods of:

1. Decentralization: Characterized by local autonomy, diverse power centers, and often rapid innovation. 2. Centralization: Marked by the consolidation of power, standardization, and often empire-building.

Key features of each phase:

Decentralized Phase:

- City-states or small kingdoms - Cultural and technological dynamism - Competition between polities

Centralized Phase:

- Empire or large state formation - Standardization of culture and administration - Focus on stability and replication rather than innovation

Historical examples:

1. Ancient Greece to Hellenistic and Roman Empire
2. European feudalism and Italian city-states to absolute monarchies and colonial empires
3. In China, from the Warring States Period to the unification under the Qin and consolidation in the Han Empire.

This cycle provides insights into the long-term dynamics of political organization and the trade-offs between innovation and stability in societal structures. This perspective is congruent to Spengler's distinction between the Culture and Civilization phases; but Jon HIllis has summarized it (see below).

Further reading: https://creators.mirror.xyz/s9h4_PQAcJyqgC0rnsWjw9geU2wJs-IBPXIzHhgi-P8 https://wiki.p2pfoundation.net/Centralization_vs_Decentralization_Historic_Cycle

Value Regime Change Cycle

The Value Regime Change cycle, occurring approximately every 500 years, represents fundamental shifts in how societies conceptualize and organize value. This cycle encompasses changes in economic, social, and cultural systems that define what is considered valuable and how it is exchanged. Key aspects include:

1. Transformation of economic systems

2. Shifts in social hierarchies

3. Changes in cultural and spiritual values

4. Evolution of exchange mechanisms

Historical examples:

1. Ancient to Classical (1000 BCE - 500 BCE): From gift economies to early market systems 2. Classical to Feudal (500 BCE - 500 CE): From slave-based to land-based economies 3. Feudal to Early Modern (500 CE - 1500 CE): From land-based to early capitalist systems 4. Early Modern to Industrial (1500 CE - 2000 CE): From mercantilism to industrial capitalism

Each transition involves:

- New forms of value creation and exchange - Shifts in power structures - Changes in societal organization - Emergence of new technologies and institutions

This cycle provides a framework for understanding long-term changes in economic and social systems, highlighting the interconnection between material conditions and value systems.

One of these shifts, from Classical to Medieval, is discussed in detail by : Suriano, Benjamin, "From Modes of Production to the Resurrection of the Body: A Labor Theory of Revolutionary Subjectivity & Religious Ideas" (2016): https://epublications.marquette.edu/dissertations_mu/628

Civilizational Cycle

The Civilizational cycle, spanning approximately 1000 years, is a concept primarily associated with Oswald Spengler's theory of historical development. This cycle encompasses the entire lifespan of a civilization, including:

1. Birth/Spring: Emergence of a new cultural worldview

2. Growth/Summer: Cultural flourishing and expansion

3. Maturation/Autumn: Increasing materialism and rationalization

4. Decline/Winter: Loss of cultural vitality, focus on technology and empire

Key aspects:

- Each civilization has a unique "prime symbol" or worldview - The cycle is seen as organic and deterministic - Civilizations are viewed as largely isolated, not learning from each other

Examples of civilizational cycles according to Spengler:

- Classical (Greco-Roman): 1100 BCE - 400 CE - Magian (Byzantine-Arabic): 0 - 1400 CE - Faustian (Western): 900 - 2200 CE (projected)

This theory provides a grand narrative for understanding the rise and fall of major cultural complexes, though it has been criticized for its determinism and lack of emphasis on inter-civilizational learning.