Satisfying Human Needs at Low Energy Use

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* Article: Socio-economic conditions for satisfying human needs at low energy use: An international analysis of social provisioning. By Jefim Vogel, Julia K. Steinberger, Daniel W.O'Neill et al. Global Environmental Change, 29 June 2021 [1]

URL = https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378021000662


Contextual Quote

"Need satisfaction saturates with energy use. Based on the international trend (regressions), all assessed needs could be sufficiently met at 60 GJ/cap of final energy use. Beyond that level, additional energy use comes with little to no improvements in need satisfaction: a doubling in energy use is associated with less than a 5% increase in need satisfaction (10% for basic education). However, only 70% of the countries with energy use above 60 GJ/cap currently achieve sufficient need satisfaction (75% for 80 GJ/cap). Thus, high energy use alone is not sufficient to meet human needs."


Description

"Highlights

• No country sufficiently meets human needs within sustainable levels of energy use.

• Need satisfaction and associated energy requirements depend on socio-economic setups.

• Public services are linked to higher need satisfaction and lower energy requirements.

• Economic growth is linked to lower need satisfaction and higher energy requirements.

• Countries with good socio-economic setups could likely meet needs at low energy use."

(https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378021000662)


Abstract

"Meeting human needs at sustainable levels of energy use is fundamental for avoiding catastrophic climate change and securing the well-being of all people. In the current political-economic regime, no country does so. Here, we assess which socio-economic conditions might enable societies to satisfy human needs at low energy use, to reconcile human well-being with climate mitigation.

Using a novel analytical framework alongside a novel multivariate regression-based moderation approach and data for 106 countries, we analyse how the relationship between energy use and six dimensions of human need satisfaction varies with a wide range of socio-economic factors relevant to the provisioning of goods and services ('provisioning factors'). We find that factors such as public service quality, income equality, democracy, and electricity access are associated with higher need satisfaction and lower energy requirements (‘beneficial provisioning factors’). Conversely, extractivism and economic growth beyond moderate levels of affluence are associated with lower need satisfaction and greater energy requirements (‘detrimental provisioning factors’). Our results suggest that improving beneficial provisioning factors and abandoning detrimental ones could enable countries to provide sufficient need satisfaction at much lower, ecologically sustainable levels of energy use.

However, as key pillars of the required changes in provisioning run contrary to the dominant political-economic regime, a broader transformation of the economic system may be required to prioritise, and organise provisioning for, the satisfaction of human needs at low energy use."

Research questions:

"We address these research gaps by making three contributions.

  • First, we develop a novel analytical approach for empirically assessing the role of socio-economic factors as intermediaries moderating the relationship between energy use (as a means) and need satisfaction (as an end), thus analytically separating means, ends and intermediaries (Fig. 1). For this purpose, we adapt and operationalise a novel analytical framework proposed by O’Neill et al. (2018) which centres on provisioning systems as intermediaries between biophysical resource use and human well-being (Fig. 1A).
  • Second, we apply this approach and framework for the first time, using data for 19 indicators and 106 countries to empirically analyse how the relationships between energy use and six dimensions of human need satisfaction vary with a range of political, economic, geographic and infrastructural ‘provisioning factors’ (Fig. 1B).
  • Third, we assess which socio-economic conditions (i.e. which configurations of provisioning factors) might enable countries to provide sufficient need satisfaction within sustainable levels of energy use.


Specifically, we address the following research questions:

1) What levels of energy use are associated with sufficient need satisfaction in the current international provisioning regime?

2) How does the relationship between energy use and human need satisfaction vary with the configurations of different provisioning factors?

3) Which configurations of provisioning factors are associated with socio-ecologically beneficial performance (higher achievements in, and lower energy requirements of, human need satisfaction), and which ones are associated with socio-ecologically detrimental performance (lower achievements in, and greater energy requirements of, need satisfaction)?

4) To what extent could countries with beneficial configurations of key provisioning factors achieve sufficient need satisfaction within sustainable levels of energy use?


Excerpt

"How much energy use is required to provide sufficient need satisfaction is only scarcely researched, and the few existing estimates are broadly scattered (Rao et al., 2019).

  • Empirical cross-national estimates include 25–40 GJ/cap primary energy use for life expectancy and literacy (Steinberger and Roberts, 2010), or 22–58 GJ/cap final energy use for life expectancy and composite basic needs access (Lamb and Rao, 2015).
  • Empirically-driven bottom-up model studies estimate the final energy footprints of sufficient need satisfaction in India, South Africa and Brazil to range between 12 and 25 GJ/cap (Rao et al., 2019), based on Rao and Min’s (2018a) definition of ‘Decent Living Standards’ that meet human needs. Global bottom-up modelling studies involving stronger assumptions of technological efficiency and equity, respectively, suggest that by 2050,
  • Decent Living Standards could be internationally provided with 27 GJ/cap (Grubler et al., 2018) or even just 13–18 GJ/cap final energy use (Millward-Hopkins et al., 2020). Together, these studies demonstrate that meeting everyone’s needs at sustainable levels of energy use is theoretically feasible with known technology.


What remains poorly understood, however, is how the relationship between human need satisfaction and energy use (or biophysical resource use) varies with different socio-economic factors (Lamb and Steinberger, 2017, O’Neill et al., 2018, Steinberger et al., 2020). A small number of studies offer initial insights.

  • The environmental efficiency of life satisfaction, presented as a measure of sustainability, follows an inverted-U-shape with Gross Domestic Product (GDP), increases with trust, and decreases with income inequality (Knight and Rosa, 2011).
  • The carbon or environmental intensities of life expectancy, understood as measures of unsustainability, increase with income inequality (Jorgenson, 2015), urbanisation (McGee et al., 2017) and world society integration (Givens, 2017). They furthermore follow a U-shape with GDP internationally (Dietz et al., 2012), though increasing with GDP in all regions but Africa (Jorgenson, 2014, Jorgenson and Givens, 2015), and show asymmetric relationships with economic growth and recession in ‘developed’ vs. ‘less developed’ countries (Greiner and McGee, 2020). Their associations with uneven trade integration and exchange vary with levels of development (Givens, 2018).
  • Democracy is not significantly correlated with the environmental efficiency of life satisfaction (Knight and Rosa, 2011) nor with the energy intensity of life expectancy (Mayer, 2017).

All of these studies either combine need satisfaction outcomes from societal activity and biophysical means to societal activity into a ratio metric, or analyse residuals from their regression. Hence, they do not specify how these socio-economic factors interact with the highly non-linear relationship between need satisfaction and biophysical resource use, or with the ability of countries to reach targets simultaneously for need satisfaction and energy (or resource) use."


Provisioning Factors

"The main advancement of our framework consists in operationalising the concept of provisioning systems (Brand Correa and Steinberger, 2017, Fanning et al., 2020, Lamb and Steinberger, 2017, O’Neill et al., 2018) by introducing the concept of ‘provisioning factors’.

Provisioning factors comprise all factors that characterise any element realising, or any aspect influencing, the provisioning of goods and services. This includes economic, political, institutional, infrastructural, geographic, technical, cultural and historical characteristics of provisioning systems (or the provisioning process), spanning the spheres of extraction, production, distribution, consumption and disposal. In other words, provisioning factors encompass all factors that affect how energy and resources are used to meet human needs (and other ends). For example, it matters whether provisioning caters to consumers with equal or unequal purchasing power, whether it occurs in an urban or rural context, in a growing or shrinking economy, whether electricity is available, and what transport infrastructure is in place. Provisioning factors are intermediaries that moderate the relationship between energy use and need satisfaction. Whereas provisioning systems are broad conceptual constructs that are difficult to measure, provisioning factors are tangible and measureable, and as such operational: provisioning factors characterise provisioning systems (or the provisioning process).

While interactions between energy use, provisioning factors and social outcomes may in principle go in all directions (Fanning et al., 2020, O’Neill et al., 2018), our focus here is on the role of provisioning factors for countries’ socio-ecological performance, i.e. their achievements in, and energy requirements of, human need satisfaction.

...


"We distinguish three types of provisioning factors. Beneficial provisioning factors are associated with socio-ecologically beneficial performance (higher achievements in, and lower energy requirements of, human need satisfaction). Countries with high values of a beneficial provisioning factor tend to achieve higher levels of need satisfaction at a given level of energy use, and tend to reach a particular level of need satisfaction with lower levels of energy use, compared to countries with median values of the provisioning factor. Detrimental provisioning factors are associated with socio-ecologically detrimental performance (lower achievement in, and greater energy requirements of, human need satisfaction). Countries with high values of a detrimental provisioning factor tend to exhibit lower need satisfaction at a given level of energy use, and tend to reach a particular level of need satisfaction only at higher levels of energy use, compared to countries with median values of the provisioning factor. Lastly, non-significant provisioning factors do not show significant interactions with the relationship between energy use and need satisfaction.

Examples of how these interrelations manifest themselves in the relationship between energy use and need satisfaction are shown in Fig. 3. Public service quality, income equality, and electricity access can be identified as beneficial provisioning factors (upward arrows, green rows), whereas extractivism and economic growth can be identified as detrimental provisioning factors (downward arrows, red rows). Taking healthy life expectancy as a need satisfaction variable and public service quality as a provisioning factor (1st row, 1st column in Fig. 3), for example, we find life expectancy outcomes for high public service quality (yellow curve) to be significantly higher and less dependent on energy use than life expectancy outcomes for median (orange curve) or low public service quality (blue curve). Taking extractivism as a provisioning factor (4th row) instead, we find life expectancy outcomes for high levels of extractivism (yellow curve) are substantially lower and more dependent on energy use than they are for lower levels of extractivism (blue curve).

...


Our analysis identifies public service quality, democratic quality, income equality, electricity access, access to clean fuels, trade and transport infrastructure, and public health coverage as consistently beneficial provisioning factors (Fig. 4). Extractivism and economic growth, on the other hand, are identified as consistently detrimental provisioning factors. Foreign direct investments and trade penetration are overall not significant."

(https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378021000662)


Conclusions

"Our findings suggest that the satisfaction of fundamental human needs does not only depend on energy use, but also on a broad range of provisioning factors that act as intermediaries between need satisfaction and energy use. Need satisfaction outcomes and their energy requirements vary substantially with the configuration of key provisioning factors. Accounting for provisioning factors allows us to statistically explain a significant share of international need satisfaction outcomes and their relation to energy use, whereas not accounting for provisioning factors generally leads to overestimating the importance of energy use. We thus find that human need satisfaction is generally less dependent on energy use than previous empirical studies have suggested. At the same time, high energy use alone is not sufficient to meet human needs. Both the social outcomes and the ecological sustainability of human development pathways are tightly linked to the configurations of key provisioning factors. A focus on provisioning factors may hence be crucial for achieving the twin goals of meeting everyone’s needs and remaining within planetary boundaries – goals which sit at the heart of the Sustainable Development Goals, but which are incompatible with current development pathways.


This study set out to address a crucial yet unstudied issue at the heart of the challenge to meet the needs of all people while remaining within planetary boundaries: how does the relationship between energy use and need satisfaction vary with different provisioning factors, and what configurations of these factors are suitable for sufficient need satisfaction within sustainable levels of energy use?

Our analysis suggests that the way countries operate their economies in the current political-economic regime is fundamentally misaligned with the twin goals of meeting human needs and ensuring ecological sustainability: in 77 of the 106 countries we analysed, people are significantly deprived of fundamental human needs, whereas the 29 countries in which these needs are sufficiently met all feature highly unsustainable levels of energy use. Based on a novel analytical framework and approach, we find that differences in the relationship between energy use and need satisfaction are linked to the configurations of a wide range of provisioning factors. For beneficial configurations of provisioning factors, need satisfaction outcomes tend to be significantly better, and substantially less dependent on energy use. For detrimental configurations of provisioning factors, it is the other way around: need satisfaction outcomes are significantly impaired and associated with higher levels of energy use.

Our analysis suggests that countries with beneficial configurations of key provisioning factors are more likely to reach high levels of need satisfaction at low levels of energy use. Countries with highly beneficial configurations of several key provisioning factors could potentially achieve sufficient need satisfaction within sustainable levels of energy use. Improvements in relevant provisioning factors may thus be crucial for ending human deprivation in currently underproviding countries without exacerbating ecological crises, and for tackling the ecological overshoot of currently needs-satisfying countries without compromising sufficient need satisfaction.

On that basis, we suggest that countries should pursue the provisioning configurations that our analysis identifies as beneficial, in particular, providing high-quality public services, strengthening democracy, establishing greater income equality, ensuring universal access to electricity and clean fuels, improving trade and transport infrastructure, increasing public health coverage, minimising extractive industries and abandoning economic growth beyond moderate levels of affluence. Given the dependence of provisioning systems on the broader political-economic regime, and the tight coupling between energy use and economic growth (a central pillar of the dominant regime), a fundamental transformation of the political-economic regime may be necessary to prioritise and realise the provisioning of sufficient need satisfaction within sustainable levels of energy use.

Our findings have important implications for development discourses, climate mitigation, and poverty eradication. They are particularly relevant for efforts to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals, Green New Deal programmes, ‘Doughnut economics’, and initiatives to ‘build back better’ after the Covid-19 crisis. Our analysis provides empirical support for transformative policies including Universal Basic Services, a minimum and maximum income, citizens’ assemblies, and for moving away from the pursuit of economic growth and extractivism towards a prioritisation of human needs and ecological sustainability.

Overall, this study offers and informs a new way of understanding the link between human development (in terms of need satisfaction) and ecological sustainability (in terms of energy use), and the role of the economy and key provisioning factors in reconciling these twin goals. Further research is needed to better understand the mechanisms underpinning the role of provisioning factors, to inform the design of policies to act on them, and to guide the design of and transition to an economic system that is aligned with human needs, equity and ecological sustainability." (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378021000662)