Michael Haupt's Synthesis of the Phases of Civilization
Typology
Source: copied from Roam Research file at https://roamresearch.com/#/app/MichaelHaupt/page/bFgI2JAHp
Michael Haupt:
"Social Cycles Science argues that events and stages of society and history generally repeat themselves in cycles, hence the Cycle of Civilization. A deep study of Collapsology has identified that many historians generally agree on seven distinct phases in this cycle. For example, in Carroll Quigley's 1961 book, The Evolution of Civilizations, he offered the seven stages of a civilization's change as: mixture, gestation, expansion, age of conflict, universal empire, decay, and invasion. John Glubb's 1977 book, The Fate of Empires and Search for Survival describes an arc that starts with an Age of Pioneers (or Conquests) and then moves successively through the Ages of Commerce, Affluence, and Intellect before terminating in an Age of Decadence.
We have combined the numerous viewpoints from extensive literature and created a combined model. The phases listed below helps explain the cycle that each Class-Based Society goes through during its rise and inevitable collapse. Importantly, we have added "dominant traits" to make it easier to identify which phase your country is in.
The cycle has repeated methodically over the past 8,000 years, with each cycle lasting between 225 & 325 years (average is 275). There have been 26 deeply researched civilizations, with a total of 80+ that have all followed the same cycle.
Phase 0/7 - Collapse of the Old/Emergence of the New
The slow appearance of the Next System, usually driven by the same grassroots movements who felt oppressed in Stages 5 & 6
Depending on independent perspective, some see this phase as collapse of the current paradigm while others see it as the birth of the new. The two events occur simultaneously, which leads to wide-scale confusion.
See Emergence Theory.
Phase 1 - Stability
High social cohesion
Egalitarian - all people are equal and have equal rights and opportunities - see "Values-Based Society"; no one has power over another
Ecosophy - ecological and economic harmony and equilibrium
Extraordinary eloquence, rhetoric and reasoning skills; enormous amount of time spent in public debates, particularly when a crime occurs
Vigor and virtue are the hallmarks of the civilization
Phase 2 - Early Growth (Age of Pioneers or Conquests)
Expansion is funded, usually through a Debt-Based Monetary System
Division of Labour - the origins of a Class-Based Society
Class-based governance systems are built, which are distinctly different to Indigenous Governance systems
Resource allocation systems are built - see Understanding Economics
Characterized by optimism, confidence, devotion to duty, a sense of honor, a shared purpose, and adherence to a strict moral code
Phase 3 - Prosperity (Age of Commerce)
Relatively long period of growth, peace and prosperity
Organized complexity, where challenges with many variables can be analyzed and understood
Virtues of courage, patriotism and devotion to duty are still in evidence. The nation is proud, united and full of self-confidence
Modern equivalent: Invisible Revolution (1946-1975)
Phase 4 - Overshoot (Age of Affluence)
Overshoot is the action of exceeding the resource limits of the planet and continuing to use resources which should be reserved for future generations (stealing from the future)
Personal debt and socio-economic inequalities increase
Money replaces honour and adventure as the objective of the best young men.
"Beneath the surface, greed and selfishness crowd out the ideals of duty and service. In addition, success breeds hubris in the form of complacency, arrogance, self-righteousness, and over-confidence. A spoiled society begins to rot from within." - William Ophuls
Phase 5 - Hubris (Age of Intellect)
Rise of One Percent, which refers not to a concentration of wealth, but to a concentration of Hubris
Elitist Democracy - power concentrated in the hands of a few Narcissistic Leadership - extreme self-interest and disregard of the citizenry
Fatal flaws start appearing in the economy; standard of living plummets
Disorganized complexity, where variables and interrelationships cannot be fully analyzed or understood, much less resolved
Diminishing returns on previously profitable/useful investments e.g. conquests, energy, infrastructure, food systems, education, health
Where rhetoric and reasoning were skills used to navigate disagreements in Phase 1, disagreements in Phase 5 and 6 are settled through pure power
Where vigor and virtue were the hallmarks of the civilization in Phase 1, decadence and decay are the hallmarks of Phase 5 and 6
Excess funds are poured into advanced education and the pursuit of knowledge. "But the shadow side of this flourishing intellectual climate is such a luxuriance of discussion, debate, and argument that public affairs drift from bad to worse, amid an unceasing cacophony of argument that vitiates the power of action.” - William Ophuls
Phase 6 - Totalitarianism (Age of Decadence)
Government overreaches, becomes more dictatorial and requires complete subservience to the state in all matters of importance.
Rise of Totalitarianism and various forms of Fascism, like Ecofascism. "Gratuitous cruelty, derision, nastiness — they are one of a piece with authoritarianism because they feed off the same anger and fear. They also fuel the hate and paranoia that are causing Americans to distrust our electoral system and one another. And they can fuel violence." - Robert Reich: https://robertreich.substack.com/p/saved-from-trumpism
Censorship and Propaganda - see Climate Censorship
Protests and peaceful 'civil disobedience'
Appropriation of Remaining Resources
Challenges that were once separate begin to coalesce into a “problematique,” a nexus of seemingly insurmountable challenges that mutually aggravate each other, ultimately leading to collapse
"Frivolity, aestheticism, hedonism, cynicism, pessimism, narcissism, consumerism, materialism, nihilism, fatalism, fanaticism, and other negative attributes, attitudes, and behaviors suffuse the population... Rotten to the core, the society awaits collapse, with only the date remaining to be determined." - William Ophuls
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