Long Cycle of World Leadership

* Chapter: The Long Cycle of World Leadership. By George Modelski & William R. Thompson. In:Seapower in Global Politics, 1494–1993 pp 97–132

URL = https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-1-349-09154-6_5

Abstract

"The long cycle of global politics refers to the process of fluctuations in the concentration of global reach capabilities which provide one foundation for world leadership. Given the basic geographical nature of the world — great masses of land separated by large bodies of water — and the technological history of the modern, post-1500 era, a primary capability for global reach has been and continues to be seapower. Previous chapters have discussed why we believe this to be the case, how we propose to measure seapower, and what principles have guided the data collection of the predominantly capital-ship index of naval power. The subsequently collected information is reported in some detail in Chapters 7–9. With this information, guided by the insights of long cycle theory and the measurement rules reviewed earlier, we are now in a position to answer two questions. First, which states qualify as global and world powers and when do they qualify? Second, is there a long cycle of fluctuations in the extent to which naval power is concentrated that follows essentially a sequential pattern of global war, relatively high concentration, deconcentration, and then a return to global war?"