Kuznets Cycle
= The Kuznets 'Swing' is a 15-20 year hypothized economic cycle
Description
From the Wikipedia:
"The Kuznets swing (or Kuznets cycle) is a claimed medium-range economic wave with a period of 15–25 years identified in 1930 by Simon Kuznets. Kuznets connected these waves with demographic processes, in particular with immigrant inflows/outflows and the changes in construction intensity that they caused, that is why he denoted them as "demographic" or "building" cycles/swings. Kuznets swings have been also interpreted as infrastructural investment cycles.
Some modern economic commentators argue the Kuznets swing reflects an 18-year cycle in land values. Fred Harrison argues this cycle of boom and bust could be smoothed or avoided altogether by levying an annual tax on the value of land (land value tax)."
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuznets_swing)
More information
- Kuznets S. Secular Movements in Production and Prices. Their Nature and their Bearing upon Cyclical Fluctuations. Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1930.
- Forrester J. W. New Perspectives on Economic Growth. Alternatives to Growth – A Search for Sustainable Futures / Ed. by D. L. Meadows. Cambridge, MA: Ballinger, 1977. P. 107–121; Korotayev, Andrey V., & Tsirel, Sergey V. A Spectral Analysis of World GDP Dynamics: Kondratieff Waves, Kuznets Swings, Juglar and Kitchin Cycles in Global Economic Development, and the 2008–2009 Economic Crisis. Structure and Dynamics. 2010. Vol.4. #1. P.3-57.