Global Cooperation Barometer
- The Global Cooperation Barometer.
URL = https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_The_Global_Cooperation_Barometer_2024.pdf
Description
"The Global Cooperation Barometer is structured along five dimensions of global connection: trade and capital, innovation and technology, climate and natural capital, health and wellness, and peace and security. These five pillars were chosen because of their impact on global development and their explicit dependence on cooperative efforts among nations and economies. As a guiding element in the analysis, the barometer identified goals that actors are working toward in each of these themes. In doing so, the barometer draws inspiration from the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and the efforts of other global institutions. To quantify change in these pillars, 42 indicators were identified that research suggests are either cooperative actions that advance progress on the goals of the pillars or demonstrate a broad outcome from those actions. Cooperative action metrics measure actions that provide evidence of cooperation; these indicators (such as flows of goods and exchange of intellectual property) are evidence of real, manifested cooperation and do not include “on paper” commitments. Outcome metrics (such as life expectancy) measure the progress of cooperation, but typically are influenced by additional factors beyond just cooperation. The metrics span countries in all geographies and all levels of development. The barometer looks back at the last 11 years, from 2012 through 2022 to establish a trend line of cooperation."
Summary
From the Executive Summary:
"The world is facing complex challenges. Addressing them demands cooperation at the global level. Today’s economy is in a fragile state, with growth expected to be well below the historical average, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Revitalizing trade will be crucial to strengthening the economic outlook ahead and boosting livelihoods. However, the IMF has raised alarms about the possibility of global fragmentation, which could shave off 7% of global GDP.
Similarly, technological innovation is key to boosting currently sluggish productivity growth, with generative artificial intelligence (AI) holding extraordinary potential – $2.6 trillion to $4.4 trillion in additional annual value across industries, as estimated by the McKinsey Global Institute.
The only way to unlock this benefit and manage undesirable consequences is through global coordination. Climate change requires governments and businesses to work together to reach net zero, adapt to shifts in climate already locked in by previous emissions, and do all of this in a way that supports economic development across the globe. Just like the health of the planet, the health of people requires cooperation globally between governments and businesses. Long-term advancements in health and immediate responses to acute crises like pandemics require parties around the world to work together. Yet, in terms of addressing the health and well-being of people and the planet, the world appears off course, with just 15% of the Sustainable Development Goals on track.
Yet, as cooperation is becoming an imperative, the world order appears to be fragmenting. Indeed, the global security landscape – once a largely cooperative domain in the post-Cold War era – is deteriorating, with the United Nations noting at the start of 2023 that the world was witnessing the highest number of violent conflicts since World War II.
The Global Cooperation Barometer 2024 presents an approach to measure the current state of global cooperation. In doing so, the report is meant to serve as a tool for leaders to better understand the contours of cooperation broadly and along five pillars – trade and capital flows, innovation and technology, climate and natural capital, health and wellness, and peace and security. After trending positively for much of the past decade, global cooperation risks moving into reverse.
The story varies by pillar:
– Trade and capital: trade and capital cooperation grew through the pandemic disruption, but slowed in 2023; geopolitical tensions and new restrictions make the future path unclear.
– Innovation and technology: flows of data, IP and international students powered an increase in cooperation until 2020, but new questions have arisen about how to work together to harness opportunities.
– Climate and natural capital: the level of cooperation for climate and natural capital has been rising steadily, due in large measure to an increase in commitments, but emissions also continue to rise.
– Health and wellness: cooperation in health and wellness rose swiftly in response to the pandemic, but appears to be settling back to historical patterns.
– Peace and security: cooperation in peace and security has declined since 2016 and plummeted recently.
Because it is unlikely that the current geopolitical climate will change and competition and confrontation will soon cool, the barometer suggests that leaders in business and government should reimagine cooperation."
(https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_The_Global_Cooperation_Barometer_2024.pdf)