Declining Net Energy in Society

* Master's Thesis: The Rise of Inefficient Energy - Are Gross Estimates of Fossil Fuel Production Hiding Declining Net Energy in Society? Kai_Ferragallo-Hawkins. University of Helsinki Open Repository.

URL = https://helda.helsinki.fi/items/879c298b-928f-4501-b488-944f2ee9ab1c [1]

Abstract

"Transforming fossil fuels into usable energy requires significant energy investment in its prior logistics and extraction. The measurement for this ratio of logistical to usable energy is called Energy Return on Investment (EROI). Researchers have indicated that EROI is declining for fossil fuels, which would cause these resources to have a lower energy efficiency. As no existing fossil production models have explored its implications, this thesis set out to simulate EROI’s effect on gross fossil production. The thesis qualitatively reviewed EROI literature and existing fossil fuel longevity models to select the theoretical EROI framework and production model best suited to addressing cross-implementation. The created methodology was then run through three different scenarios of total fossil fuel deposits.

This thesis’ results found that, while the negative effects of low EROI have been historically minimal, their impact would increase exponentially over the next century, leading to potentially significant discrepancies between gross fossil fuel production and the net energy available to society. This could encourage energy sprawl, or labor and capital focused on energy over other economic sectors, which decreases economic growth and encourages in- stability. Additionally, gas was found to outperform coal and oil’s energy efficiency, only facing the same negative effects from declining EROI decades later. Future work in EROI implementation into fossil production models would greatly benefit the understanding of its long-term economic impacts."