Kondratiev Wave: Difference between revisions
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" Kondratiev Wave is a long-term economic cycle in commodity prices and other prices, believed to result from technological innovation, that produces a long period of prosperity alternating with economic decline. This theory was founded by Nikolai D. Kondratiev (also spelled "Kondratieff"), an agricultural economist who noticed agricultural commodity and copper prices experienced long-term cycles. Kondratiev believed that these cycles involved periods of evolution and self-correction." | " Kondratiev Wave is a long-term economic cycle in commodity prices and other prices, believed to result from technological innovation, that produces a long period of prosperity alternating with economic decline. This theory was founded by Nikolai D. Kondratiev (also spelled "Kondratieff"), an agricultural economist who noticed agricultural commodity and copper prices experienced long-term cycles. Kondratiev believed that these cycles involved periods of evolution and self-correction." | ||
(https://www.investopedia.com/terms/k/kondratiev.asp) | (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/k/kondratiev.asp) | ||
=Characteristics= | |||
From the Wikipedia: | |||
"Characteristics of the cycle | |||
Kondratiev identified three phases in the cycle, namely expansion, stagnation and recession. More common today is the division into four periods with a turning point (collapse) between expansion and stagnation. | |||
Writing in the 1920s, Kondratiev proposed to apply the theory to the 19th century: | |||
* 1790–1849, with a turning point in 1815. | |||
* 1850–1896, with a turning point in 1873. | |||
Kondratiev supposed that in 1896 a new cycle had started." | |||
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kondratiev_wave) | |||
=Discussion= | |||
From the Wikipedia: | |||
"Since the inception of the theory, various studies have expanded the range of possible cycles, finding longer or shorter cycles in the data. The Marxist scholar Ernest Mandel revived interest in long-wave theory with his 1964 essay predicting the end of the long boom after five years and in his Alfred Marshall lectures in 1979. However, in Mandel's theory there are no long cycles, only distinct epochs of faster and slower growth spanning 20–25 years. | |||
In 1996, George Modelski and William R. Thompson published a book documenting K-Waves dating back to 930 AD in China. Separately, Michael Snyder wrote: "economic cycle theories have enabled some analysts to correctly predict the timing of recessions, stock market peaks and stock market crashes over the past couple of decades". | |||
The historian Eric Hobsbawm also wrote of the theory: "That good predictions have proved possible on the basis of Kondratiev Long Waves—this is not very common in economics—has convinced many historians and even some economists that there is something in them, even if we don't know what". | |||
US-economist Anwar Shaikh analyses the movement of the general price level - prices expressed in gold - in the US and the UK since 1890 and identifies three long cycles with troughs ca. in 1895, 1939 and 1982. With this model 2018 was another trough between the third and a possible future fourth cycle. | |||
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kondratiev_wave) | |||
[[Category:P2P Cycles]] | [[Category:P2P Cycles]] | ||
Revision as of 09:08, 3 April 2021
Description
Investopedia:
" Kondratiev Wave is a long-term economic cycle in commodity prices and other prices, believed to result from technological innovation, that produces a long period of prosperity alternating with economic decline. This theory was founded by Nikolai D. Kondratiev (also spelled "Kondratieff"), an agricultural economist who noticed agricultural commodity and copper prices experienced long-term cycles. Kondratiev believed that these cycles involved periods of evolution and self-correction." (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/k/kondratiev.asp)
Characteristics
From the Wikipedia:
"Characteristics of the cycle Kondratiev identified three phases in the cycle, namely expansion, stagnation and recession. More common today is the division into four periods with a turning point (collapse) between expansion and stagnation.
Writing in the 1920s, Kondratiev proposed to apply the theory to the 19th century:
- 1790–1849, with a turning point in 1815.
- 1850–1896, with a turning point in 1873.
Kondratiev supposed that in 1896 a new cycle had started."
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kondratiev_wave)
Discussion
From the Wikipedia:
"Since the inception of the theory, various studies have expanded the range of possible cycles, finding longer or shorter cycles in the data. The Marxist scholar Ernest Mandel revived interest in long-wave theory with his 1964 essay predicting the end of the long boom after five years and in his Alfred Marshall lectures in 1979. However, in Mandel's theory there are no long cycles, only distinct epochs of faster and slower growth spanning 20–25 years.
In 1996, George Modelski and William R. Thompson published a book documenting K-Waves dating back to 930 AD in China. Separately, Michael Snyder wrote: "economic cycle theories have enabled some analysts to correctly predict the timing of recessions, stock market peaks and stock market crashes over the past couple of decades".
The historian Eric Hobsbawm also wrote of the theory: "That good predictions have proved possible on the basis of Kondratiev Long Waves—this is not very common in economics—has convinced many historians and even some economists that there is something in them, even if we don't know what".
US-economist Anwar Shaikh analyses the movement of the general price level - prices expressed in gold - in the US and the UK since 1890 and identifies three long cycles with troughs ca. in 1895, 1939 and 1982. With this model 2018 was another trough between the third and a possible future fourth cycle. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kondratiev_wave)