Kondratiev Waves

For extensive treatment, see: Kondratiev Cycles

Definition

George Modelski:

"Let us ... define K-waves in particular as a pattern of regularity characteristic of structural change in the modern global economy. Some 50–60 years in length, it consists of an alternation of start-up periods of slow build-up of globally significant innovations, with others of high growth, chiefly in lead industries, but influencing the entire world system. ... K-waves arise from the bunching of basic innovations that launch technological revolutions that in turn create leading industrial or commercial sectors. ... global economy. Each K-wave has its own characteristic location in space and time. Britain's cotton wave was centered on Manchester. The Information (IT) K-wave (K19) is preferentially seen as originating in the United States, in California's Silicon Valley. K-waves also have a clear location in time, and can be dated. There is no standard listing, but following Kondratieff's practice, there is some agreement on the four or five most recent ones."

(https://www.sociostudies.org/almanac/articles/files/evolution_3/pdf/018-029.pdf)

Periodization

Table from George Modelski:

Table 1. Global economics and politics co-evolving in the modern world system

1. K-Waves 2. Global leading sectors 3. Date 4.

1. K1 Printing and paper 930 LC1 Northern Song
2. K2 National market 990
3. K3 Fiscal framework 1060 LC2 Southern Song
4. K4 Maritime trade 1120
5. K5 Champagne Fairs 1190 LC3 Genoa
6. K6 Black Sea trade 1250
7. K7 Galley fleets 1300 LC4 Venice
8. K8 Pepper 1350
9. K9 Guinea gold 1420 LC5 Portugal
10. K10 Spices 1492
11. K11 Baltic trade 1540 LC6 Dutch Republic
12. K12 Asian trade 1580
13. K13 American plantations 1640 LC7 Britain I
14. K14 Amerasian trade 1680
15. K15 Cotton, iron 1740 LC8 Britain II
16. K16 Railroads 1792

• World market

1. K17 Electric power, steel 1850 LC9 USA
2. K18 Electronics, oil, autos 1914
3. K19 Computers, internet (IT)1973 LC10
4. K20 2030

(https://www.sociostudies.org/almanac/articles/files/evolution_3/pdf/018-029.pdf)

More information

* Article: Kondratieff Waves, Evolution and Globalization. By George Modelski. In: Evolution: Development within Different Paradigms 2013 18–29.

URL = https://www.sociostudies.org/almanac/articles/files/evolution_3/pdf/018-029.pdf

Abstract: "Contemporary Kondratieff wave (K-wave) studies show two tendencies: one, a macroeconomic analysis that maps long trends of prosperity and depression with GDP data, but second, a sectoral approach that traces the influence of K-waves of basic innovations, and the rise of a succession of leading industrial and/or commercial sectors on the emergence of a global economy. What is more, K-waves are a not stand-alone feature of the modern world system but one in a cascade of processes that have shaped its emergence. They stand in a close relationship with world politics, democratization, and globalization. An evolutionary explanation of K-waves is one that gives a reasoned account of the emergence of the modern global economy over the past millennium, and one that may project equally far into the future."