Kondratiev Waves: Difference between revisions

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For extensive treatment, see: [[Kondratiev Cycles]]


=Discussion=


From the Wikipedia:
=Definition=


"In pseudoeconomics, Kondratiev waves (also called supercycles, great surges, long waves, K-waves or the long economic cycle) are hypothesized cycle-like phenomena in the modern world economy.[10] It is stated that the period of a wave ranges from forty to sixty years, the cycles consist of alternating intervals of high sectoral growth and intervals of relatively slow growth.
George Modelski:


Such theories are dismissed by most economists on the basis of econometric analysis which has found that recessions are essentially random events, and the probability of a recession does not show any kind of pattern across time.[ Despite frequent use of the term business cycles to refer to changes in an economy around its trend line, the phrase is considered a misnomer. It is widely agreed that fluctuations in economic activity do not exhibit any kind of predictable repetition over time, and the appearance of cycles is a result of pareidolia."
"Let us ... define K-waves in particular as a pattern of regularity characteristic of structural change in the modern global economy. Some 50–60 years in length, it consists of an alternation of start-up periods of slow build-up of globally significant innovations, with others of high growth, chiefly in lead industries, but influencing the entire world system. ... K-waves arise from the bunching of basic innovations that launch technological revolutions that in turn create leading industrial or commercial sectors. ... global economy. Each K-wave has its own characteristic location in space and time. Britain's cotton wave was centered on Manchester. The Information (IT) K-wave (K19) is preferentially seen as originating in the United States, in California's Silicon Valley. K-waves also have a clear location in time, and can be dated. There is no standard listing, but following Kondratieff's practice, there is some agreement on the four or five most recent ones."


(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_cycle_theory)
(https://www.sociostudies.org/almanac/articles/files/evolution_3/pdf/018-029.pdf)
 
 
=Periodization=
 
Table from George Modelski:
 
Table 1. Global economics and politics co-evolving in the modern world system
 
1. K-Waves  2. Global  leading sectors  3. Date 4.
 
#K1 Printing and paper 930 LC1 Northern Song
#K2 National market 990   
#K3 Fiscal framework 1060 LC2 Southern Song
#K4 Maritime trade 1120   
#K5 Champagne Fairs 1190 LC3 Genoa
#K6 Black Sea trade 1250   
#K7 Galley fleets 1300 LC4 Venice
#K8 Pepper 1350   
#K9 Guinea gold 1420 LC5 Portugal
#K10 Spices 1492   
#K11 Baltic trade 1540 LC6 Dutch Republic
#K12 Asian trade 1580   
#K13 American plantations 1640 LC7 Britain I
#K14 Amerasian trade 1680   
#K15 Cotton, iron 1740 LC8 Britain II
#K16 Railroads 1792   
 
* World market 
 
#K17 Electric power, steel 1850 LC9 USA
#K18 Electronics, oil, autos 1914   
#K19 Computers, internet (IT)1973 LC10 
#K20  2030
 
(https://www.sociostudies.org/almanac/articles/files/evolution_3/pdf/018-029.pdf)
 
=More information=
 
'''* Article: [[Kondratieff Waves, Evolution  and Globalization]]. By George Modelski. In: Evolution: Development within Different Paradigms  2013 18–29.'''
 
URL = https://www.sociostudies.org/almanac/articles/files/evolution_3/pdf/018-029.pdf
 
Abstract: "Contemporary Kondratieff wave (K-wave) studies show two tendencies: one, a macroeconomic analysis that maps long trends of prosperity and depression with GDP data, but second, a sectoral approach that traces the influence of  K-waves of basic innovations, and the rise of a succession of leading industrial and/or commercial sectors on the emergence of a global economy. What is more,  K-waves are a not stand-alone feature of the modern world system but one in a cascade of processes that have shaped its emergence. They stand in a close relationship with world politics, democratization, and globalization. An evolutionary explanation of K-waves is one that gives a reasoned account of the emergence of the modern global economy over the past millennium, and one that may project equally far into the future."


[[Category:P2P Cycles]]
[[Category:P2P Cycles]]

Latest revision as of 07:37, 1 September 2023

For extensive treatment, see: Kondratiev Cycles


Definition

George Modelski:

"Let us ... define K-waves in particular as a pattern of regularity characteristic of structural change in the modern global economy. Some 50–60 years in length, it consists of an alternation of start-up periods of slow build-up of globally significant innovations, with others of high growth, chiefly in lead industries, but influencing the entire world system. ... K-waves arise from the bunching of basic innovations that launch technological revolutions that in turn create leading industrial or commercial sectors. ... global economy. Each K-wave has its own characteristic location in space and time. Britain's cotton wave was centered on Manchester. The Information (IT) K-wave (K19) is preferentially seen as originating in the United States, in California's Silicon Valley. K-waves also have a clear location in time, and can be dated. There is no standard listing, but following Kondratieff's practice, there is some agreement on the four or five most recent ones."

(https://www.sociostudies.org/almanac/articles/files/evolution_3/pdf/018-029.pdf)


Periodization

Table from George Modelski:

Table 1. Global economics and politics co-evolving in the modern world system

1. K-Waves 2. Global leading sectors 3. Date 4.

  1. K1 Printing and paper 930 LC1 Northern Song
  2. K2 National market 990
  3. K3 Fiscal framework 1060 LC2 Southern Song
  4. K4 Maritime trade 1120
  5. K5 Champagne Fairs 1190 LC3 Genoa
  6. K6 Black Sea trade 1250
  7. K7 Galley fleets 1300 LC4 Venice
  8. K8 Pepper 1350
  9. K9 Guinea gold 1420 LC5 Portugal
  10. K10 Spices 1492
  11. K11 Baltic trade 1540 LC6 Dutch Republic
  12. K12 Asian trade 1580
  13. K13 American plantations 1640 LC7 Britain I
  14. K14 Amerasian trade 1680
  15. K15 Cotton, iron 1740 LC8 Britain II
  16. K16 Railroads 1792
  • World market
  1. K17 Electric power, steel 1850 LC9 USA
  2. K18 Electronics, oil, autos 1914
  3. K19 Computers, internet (IT)1973 LC10
  4. K20 2030

(https://www.sociostudies.org/almanac/articles/files/evolution_3/pdf/018-029.pdf)

More information

* Article: Kondratieff Waves, Evolution and Globalization. By George Modelski. In: Evolution: Development within Different Paradigms 2013 18–29.

URL = https://www.sociostudies.org/almanac/articles/files/evolution_3/pdf/018-029.pdf

Abstract: "Contemporary Kondratieff wave (K-wave) studies show two tendencies: one, a macroeconomic analysis that maps long trends of prosperity and depression with GDP data, but second, a sectoral approach that traces the influence of K-waves of basic innovations, and the rise of a succession of leading industrial and/or commercial sectors on the emergence of a global economy. What is more, K-waves are a not stand-alone feature of the modern world system but one in a cascade of processes that have shaped its emergence. They stand in a close relationship with world politics, democratization, and globalization. An evolutionary explanation of K-waves is one that gives a reasoned account of the emergence of the modern global economy over the past millennium, and one that may project equally far into the future."

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