Stabilized Run to Global Equilibrium
Discussion
Steve Keen:
“Less well known is its stabilised run, in which a range of policies were hypothetically introduced in 1975 to achieve a state of “global equilibrium … so that the basic material needs of each person on earth are satisfied and each person has an equal opportunity to realize his individual human potential” (Meadows, Randers et al. 1972, p. 24). The simulation concluded that no single policy was sufficient: population control on its own was not enough, nor pollution abatement without population control, and so on. But if all the policy changes they modelled were undertaken (they are described in Figure 3), then the world could achieve a sustainable future where average living standards for the globe as a whole were three times as high as they were in 1970—and much more equitably distributed.
Figure 3: The state of global equilibrium run (Meadows, Randers et al. 1972, p. 165)
As crucial as the need for a swathe of coordinated policies was the timing: if the changes were delayed for another 25 years till 2000, then they would fail: there would be overshoot of the biosphere’s capability to endure the pressure put upon it by humanity’s industrialized society. Both output and population would reach a peak in the mid-21st century and then decline.”