Global Risk Reports

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This is a huge pile; needs to be organized:


Global Risk Reports

  • Sillmann, J., Christensen, I., Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Huang-Lachmann, J., Juhola, S., Kornhuber, K., Mahecha, M., Mechler, R., Reichstein, M., Ruane, A.C., Schweizer, P.-J. and Williams, S. (2022). Briefing note on systemic risk. International Science Council. https://doi.org/10.24948/2022.01*

Special Competitive Studies Project. (2022). Mid Decades Challenges to US competitiveness. Special Competitive Studies Project. https://www.scsp.ai/2022/09/special-competitive-studies-project-releases-first-

  • Rios Rojas C., Rhodes, C., Avin, S, Kemp, L., & Beard, SJ. (2021). Foresight for unknown, long-term and emerging risks, Approaches and Recommendations. https://doi.org/10.17863/CAM.64582*
  • Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. (2022). States of Fragility 2022. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. https://doi.org/10.1787/c7fedf5e-en*

Ord, T., Mercer, A., Dannreuther, S. (2021). Future Proof. The Centre for Long-Term Resilience. https://www.longtermresilience.org/futureproof*

  • Wisner, B., Blaikie, P. M., Blaikie, P., Cannon, T., & Davis, I. (2004). At risk: natural hazards, people's vulnerability and disasters. Psychology Press.*


==Metrics / Governance

World Wildlife Fund. (2022). Living Planet Report 2022. World Wildlife Fund. https://livingplanet.panda.org/en-US/*

  • Liu, H.-Y., Lauta, K. C., & Maas, M. M. (2018). Governing Boring Apocalypses: A new typology of existential vulnerabilities and exposures for existential risk research. Futures, 102, 6–19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2018.04.009*
  • Wilson, D. S. (2016). Two meanings of complex adaptive systems. Complexity and evolution: Toward a new synthesis for economics, 19.*
  • O'Sullivan, T. L., Kuziemsky, C. E., Toal-Sullivan, D., & Corneil, W. (2013). Unraveling the complexities of disaster management: A framework for critical social infrastructure to promote population health and resilience. Social Science & Medicine, 93, 238-246.*
  • Beard, S., & Torres, P. (2020). Identifying and assessing the drivers of global catastrophic risk: A review and proposal for the global challenges foundation. Global Challenges Foundation.*
  • Rios Rojas, C., Payne, B., Kuang Heng, Y., Fysh, A., Kane, A., Rickli, J. M., ... & Okechukwu Effoduh, J. (2023). Building a Science-Policy Interface for tackling the Global Governance of Catastrophic and Existential Risks.*
  • Koehrsen, W. (2018). Unintended Consequences and Goodhart’s Law: The Importance of Using the Right Metrics. Towards Data Science, 24.*


Metacrisis / Polycrisis / Risk Governance

  • Patton, S. (2019). The peace of westphalia and it effects on international relations, diplomacy and foreign policy. The Histories, 10(1), 5.*
  • Osiander, A. (2001). Sovereignty, international relations, and the Westphalian myth. International organization, 55(2), 251-287.*
  • Gunderson, L. H., & Holling, C. S. (Eds.). (2002). Panarchy: understanding transformations in human and natural systems. Island press.*
  • Burger, A., Kennedy, W. G., & Crooks, A. (2021). Organizing theories for disasters into a complex adaptive system framework. Urban Science, 5(3), 61.*
  • Bommasani, R., Hudson, D. A., Adeli, E., Altman, R., Arora, S., von Arx, S., ... & Liang, P. (2021). On the opportunities and risks of foundation models. arXiv preprint arXiv:2108.07258.*
  • Anderies, J. M., Barfuss, W., Donges, J. F., Fetzer, I., Heitzig, J., & Rockström, J. (2022). Conceptualizing World-Earth System resilience: Exploring transformation pathways towards a safe and just operating space for humanity. arXiv preprint arXiv:2204.04471.*
  • Faulseit, R. K. (Ed.). (2016). Beyond collapse: Archaeological perspectives on resilience, revitalization, and transformation in complex societies. SIU Press.*
  • The Collective Intelligence Project. (n.d.). The Collective Intelligence Project Whitepaper. The Collective Intelligence Project. https://cip.org/whitepaper*
  • Fritsch, F., Emmett, J., Friedman, E., Kranjc, R., Manski, S., Zargham, M., & Bauwens, M. (2021). Challenges and approaches to scaling the global commons. Frontiers in blockchain, 4, 578721.*
  • Liu, H.-Y., Lauta, K. C., & Maas, M. M. (2018). Governing Boring Apocalypses: A new typology of existential vulnerabilities and exposures for existential risk research. Futures, 102, 6–19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2018.04.009
  • Ord, T. (2020). The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity. Hachette Books.

Deudney, D. (2020). Dark skies: Space expansionism, planetary geopolitics, and the ends of humanity. Oxford University Press.

Energy / Resources

Energy

Hall, C. A., Lambert, J. G., & Balogh, S. B. (2014). EROI of different fuels and the implications for society. Energy policy, 64, 141-152.*


Resources / Materials

  • Ibrahim, S. E., Centeno, M. A., Patterson, T. S., & Callahan, P. W. (2021). Resilience in global value chains: A systemic risk approach. Global Perspectives, 2(1), 27658.*


Food / Agriculture

  • Stockholm Resilience Center. (2022). Navigating transformations in times of crises towards healthy, sustainable and just Swedish and planetary food systems. Stockholm Resilience Center. https://doi.org/10.17045/sthlmuni.21275946.v1*



Barry, G. (2014). Terrestrial ecosystem loss and biosphere collapse. Management of Environmental Quality: An International Journal, 25(5), 542–563. https://doi.org/10.1108/MEQ-06-2013-0069

Persson, L., Carney Almroth, B. M., Collins, C. D., Cornell, S., de Wit, C. A., Diamond, M. L., Fantke, P., Hassellöv, M., MacLeod, M., Ryberg, M. W., Søgaard Jørgensen, P., Villarrubia-Gómez, P., Wang, Z., & Hauschild, M. Z. (2022). Outside the Safe Operating Space of the Planetary Boundary for Novel Entities. Environmental Science & Technology, 56(3), 1510–1521. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.1c04158

Mostofa, K. M. G., Liu, C.-Q., Zhai, W., Minella, M., Vione, D., Gao, K., Minakata, D., Arakaki, T., Yoshioka, T., Hayakawa, K., Konohira, E., Tanoue, E., Akhand, A., Chanda, A., Wang, B., & Sakugawa, H. (2016). Reviews and Syntheses: Ocean acidification and its potential impacts on marine ecosystems. Biogeosciences, 13(6), 1767–1786. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1767-2016

Guinotte, J. M., & Fabry, V. J. (2008). Ocean acidification and its potential effects on marine ecosystems. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1134, 320–342. https://doi.org/10.1196/annals.1439.013

Malagó, A., & Bouraoui, F. (2021). Global anthropogenic and natural nutrient fluxes: From local to planetary assessments. Environmental Research Letters, 16, 054074. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abe95f

de Vries, W., Kros, J., Kroeze, C., & Seitzinger, S. P. (2013). Assessing planetary and regional nitrogen boundaries related to food security and adverse environmental impacts. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 5(3), 392–402. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2013.07.004

Kulionis, V., & Pfister, S. (2022). A planetary boundary-based method to assess freshwater use at the global and local scales. Environmental Research Letters, 17(9), 094031. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac84f2

Zipper, S. C., Jaramillo, F., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Cornell, S. E., Gleeson, T., Porkka, M., Häyhä, T., Crépin, A.-S., Fetzer, I., Gerten, D., Hoff, H., Matthews, N., Ricaurte-Villota, C., Kummu, M., Wada, Y., & Gordon, L. (2020). Integrating the Water Planetary Boundary With Water Management From Local to Global Scales. Earth’s Future, 8(2), e2019EF001377. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001377

Gleeson, T., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Porkka, M., Zipper, S. C., Jaramillo, F., Gerten, D., Fetzer, I., Cornell, S. E., Piemontese, L., Gordon, L. J., Rockström, J., Oki, T., Sivapalan, M., Wada, Y., Brauman, K. A., Flörke, M., Bierkens, M. F. P., Lehner, B., Keys, P., … Famiglietti, J. S. (2020). Illuminating water cycle modifications and Earth system resilience in the Anthropocene. Water Resources Research, 56(4), e2019WR024957. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR024957

Bunsen, J., Berger, M., & Finkbeiner, M. (2021). Planetary boundaries for water – A review. Ecological Indicators, 121, 107022. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.107022

Heistermann, M. (2017). HESS Opinions: A planetary boundary on freshwater use is misleading. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 21(7), 3455–3461. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3455-2017

Wang-Erlandsson, L., Tobian, A., van der Ent, R. J., Fetzer, I., te Wierik, S., Porkka, M., Staal, A., Jaramillo, F., Dahlmann, H., Singh, C., Greve, P., Gerten, D., Keys, P. W., Gleeson, T., Cornell, S. E., Steffen, W., Bai, X., & Rockström, J. (2022). A planetary boundary for green water. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 3(6), Article 6. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00287-8

Shaikh, M. A., Hadjikakou, M., & Bryan, B. A. (2021). National-level consumption-based and production-based utilisation of the land-system change planetary boundary: Patterns and trends. Ecological Indicators, 121, 106981. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106981

Conijn, J. G., Bindraban, P. S., Schröder, J. J., & Jongschaap, R. E. E. (2018). Can our global food system meet food demand within planetary boundaries? Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 251, 244–256. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2017.06.001

Kedward, K., Ryan-Collins, J., & Chenet, H. (2022). Biodiversity loss and climate change interactions: Financial stability implications for central banks and financial supervisors. Climate Policy, 0(0), 1–19. https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2022.2107475

Lade, S. J., Fetzer, I., Cornell, S. E., & Crona, B. (2021). A prototype Earth system impact metric that accounts for cross-scale interactions. Environmental Research Letters, 16(11), 115005. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2db1

Lade, S. J., Steffen, W., de Vries, W., Carpenter, S. R., Donges, J. F., Gerten, D., Hoff, H., Newbold, T., Richardson, K., & Rockström, J. (2020). Human impacts on planetary boundaries amplified by Earth system interactions. Nature Sustainability, 3(2), Article 2. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0454-4

Lade, S. J., Norberg, J., Anderies, J. M., Beer, C., Cornell, S. E., Donges, J. F., Fetzer, I., Gasser, T., Richardson, K., Rockström, J., & Steffen, W. (2019). Potential feedbacks between loss of biosphere integrity and climate change. Global Sustainability, 2, e21. https://doi.org/10.1017/sus.2019.18

Chrysafi, A., Virkki, V., Jalava, M., Sandström, V., Piipponen, J., Porkka, M., Lade, S. J., La Mere, K., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Scherer, L., Andersen, L. S., Bennett, E., Brauman, K. A., Cooper, G. S., De Palma, A., Döll, P., Downing, A. S., DuBois, T. C., Fetzer, I., … Kummu, M. (2022). Quantifying Earth system interactions for sustainable food production via expert elicitation. Nature Sustainability, 5(10), Article 10. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-022-00940-6

Chen, S., Chen, D., Tan, Z., Chen, M., & Han, J. (2022). Knowledge mapping of planetary boundaries based on bibliometrics analysis. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29(45), 67728–67750. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-22292-6

Folke, C., Polasky, S., Rockström, J., Galaz, V., Westley, F., Lamont, M., Scheffer, M., Österblom, H., Carpenter, S. R., Chapin, F. S., Seto, K. C., Weber, E. U., Crona, B. I., Daily, G. C., Dasgupta, P., Gaffney, O., Gordon, L. J., Hoff, H., Levin, S. A., … Walker, B. H. (2021). Our future in the Anthropocene biosphere. Ambio, 50(4), 834–869. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-021-01544-8

Campbell, B., Beare, D., Bennett, E., Hall-Spencer, J., Ingram, J., Jaramillo, F., Ortiz, R., Ramankutty, N., Sayer, J., & Shindell, D. (2017). Agriculture production as a major driver of the Earth system exceeding planetary boundaries. Ecology and Society, 22(4). https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-09595-220408

Kopittke, P. M., Menzies, N. W., Dalal, R. C., McKenna, B. A., Husted, S., Wang, P., & Lombi, E. (2021). The role of soil in defining planetary boundaries and the safe operating space for humanity. Environment International, 146, 106-245. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2020.106245

Kim, R. E., & Kotzé, L. J. (2021). Planetary boundaries at the intersection of Earth system law, science and governance: A state-of-the-art review. Review of European, Comparative & International Environmental Law, 30(1), 3–15. https://doi.org/10.1111/reel.12383

MacLeod, M., Breitholtz, M., Cousins, I. T., Wit, C. A. de, Persson, L. M., Rudén, C., & McLachlan, M. S. (2014). Identifying Chemicals That Are Planetary Boundary Threats. Environmental Science & Technology, 48(19), 11057–11063. https://doi.org/10.1021/es501893m

Barbosa, M., Bertolami, O., & Francisco, F. (2019). Towards a Physically Motivated Planetary Accounting Framework (arXiv:1907.10535). arXiv. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1907.10535

Algunaibet, I. M., Pozo, C., Galán-Martín, Á., Huijbregts, M. A. J., Dowell, N. M., & Guillén-Gosálbez, G. (2019). Powering sustainable development within planetary boundaries. Energy & Environmental Science, 12(6), 1890–1900. https://doi.org/10.1039/C8EE03423K

Baum, S. D., & Handoh, I. C. (2014). Integrating the planetary boundaries and global catastrophic risk paradigms. Ecological Economics, 107, 13–21. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2014.07.024

Steffen, W., Richardson, K., Rockström, J., Cornell, S. E., Fetzer, I., Bennett, E. M., Biggs, R., Carpenter, S. R., de Vries, W., de Wit, C. A., Folke, C., Gerten, D., Heinke, J., Mace, G. M., Persson, L. M., Ramanathan, V., Reyers, B., & Sörlin, S. (2015). Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet. Science, 347(6223), 1259855. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1259855

Gerten, D., Heck, V., Jägermeyr, J., Bodirsky, B. L., Fetzer, I., Jalava, M., Kummu, M., Lucht, W., Rockström, J., Schaphoff, S., & Schellnhuber, H. J. (2020). Feeding ten billion people is possible within four terrestrial planetary boundaries. Nature Sustainability, 3(3), Article 3. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0465-1

Nykvist, B., Persson, Å., Moberg, F., Persson, L., Cornell, S., & Rockström, J. (2013). National Environmental Performance on Planetary Boundaries: A study for the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency (No. 6576). Swedish Environmental Protection Agency. https://mediamanager.sei.org/documents/Publications/SEI-Report-Naturvardsverket-

NationalEnvironmentalPerformance-2013.pdf de Vries, W., Kros, J., Kroeze, C., & Seitzinger, S. P. (2013). Assessing planetary and regional nitrogen boundaries related to food security and adverse environmental impacts. Current Opinion in Environmental

Technology Risk

AI

  • Galaz, V., Centeno, M. A., Callahan, P. W., Causevic, A., Patterson, T., Brass, I., … Levy, K. (2021). Artificial intelligence, systemic risks, and sustainability. Technology in Society, 67, 101741. doi:10.1016/j.techsoc.2021.101741*
  • Brundage, M., Avin, S., Clark, J., Toner, H., Eckersley, P., Garfinkel, B., … Amodei, D. (2018). The Malicious Use of Artificial Intelligence: Forecasting, Prevention, and Mitigation. ArXiv [Cs.AI]. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1802.07228*
  • Shackelford, G. E., Kemp, L., Rhodes, C., Sundaram, L., ÓhÉigeartaigh, S. S., Beard, S., … Sutherland, W. J. (2020). Accumulating evidence using crowdsourcing and machine learning: A living bibliography about existential risk and global catastrophic risk. Futures, 116, 102508. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2019.102508*
  • Huang, J., Gu, S. S., Hou, L., Wu, Y., Wang, X., Yu, H., & Han, J. (2022). Large language models can self-improve. arXiv preprint arXiv:2210.11610.*
  • Barrett, A. M., Hendrycks, D., Newman, J., & Nonnecke, B. (2022). Actionable Guidance for High-Consequence AI Risk Management: Towards Standards Addressing AI Catastrophic Risks. arXiv preprint arXiv:2206.08966.*
  • Dafoe, A., Bachrach, Y., Hadfield, G., Horvitz, E., Larson, K., & Graepel, T. (2021). Cooperative AI: machines must learn to find common ground. Nature, 593(7857), 33-36.*
  • Yudkowsky, E. (2016). The AI alignment problem: why it is hard, and where to start. Symbolic Systems Distinguished Speaker.*

Stokes, J. (2023). Here’s What It Would Take To Slow or Stop AI. https://www.jonstokes.com/p/heres-what-it-would-take-to-slow

  • Bakker, M. A., Chadwick, M. J., Sheahan, H. R., Tessler, M. H., Balaguer, J., McAleese, N., Glaese, A., Aslanides, J., Botvinick, M. M., & Summerfield, C. (2022). Fine-tuning language models to find agreement among humans with diverse preferences. ArXiv. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2211.15006.pdf
  • Eckersley, P. (2019). Impossibility and Uncertainty Theorems in AI Value Alignment (or why your AGI should not have a utility function). ArXiv. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.00064.pdf
  • Thomas, R., & Uminsky, D. (2020). The Problem with Metrics is a Fundamental Problem for AI (arXiv:2002.08512). arXiv. http://arxiv.org/abs/2002.085

Sedova, K., McNeill, C., Johnson, A., Joshi, A., & Wulkan, I. (2021). AI and the Future of Disinformation Campaigns Part 1: The RICHDATA Framework. Center for Security and Emerging Technology.

Zhang, D., Maslej, N., Brynjolfsson, E., Etchemendy, J., Lyons, T., Manyika, J., Ngo, H., Niebles, J. C., Sellitto, M., Sakhaee, E., Shoham, Y., Clark, J., & Perrault, R. (2022). Artificial Intelligence Index Report 2022. Stanford University Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence. https://aiindex.stanford.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/2022-AI-Index-Report_Master.pdf

Goldstein, J. A., Sastry, G., Musser, M., DiResta, R., Gentzel, M., & Sedova, K. (2023). Forecasting potential misuses of language models for disinformation. Stanford Internet Observatory. https://cdn.openai.com/papers/forecasting-misuse.pdf

Brundage, M., Avin, S., Wang, J., Belfield, H., Krueger, G., Hadfield, G., Khlaaf, H., Yang, J., Toner, H., Fong, R., Maharaj, T., Koh, P. W., Hooker, S., Leung, J., Trask, A., Bluemke, E., Lebensold, J., O’Keefe, C., Koren, M., … Anderljung, M. (2020). Toward Trustworthy AI Development: Mechanisms for Supporting Verifiable Claims (arXiv:2004.07213). arXiv. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2004.07213

Bommasani, R., Hudson, D. A., Adeli, E., Altman, R., Arora, S., von Arx, S., Bernstein, M. S., Bohg, J., Bosselut, A., Brunskill, E., Brynjolfsson, E., Buch, S., Card, D., Castellon, R., Chatterji, N., Chen, A., Creel, K., Davis, J. Q., Demszky, D., … Liang, P. (2022). On the Opportunities and Risks of Foundation Models (arXiv:2108.07258). arXiv. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2108.07258

Nilsson, N. J. (2009). The Quest for Artificial Intelligence. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511819346

Mohamed, S., Png, M.-T., & Isaac, W. (2020). Decolonial AI: Decolonial Theory as Sociotechnical Foresight in Artificial Intelligence. Philosophy & Technology, 33(4), 659–684. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13347-020-00405-8

Altman, S. & 2021. (2021). Moore’s Law for Everything. Moore’s Sam Altman. https://moores.samaltman.com/

Drexler, K. E. (2019). Reframing Superintelligence: Comprehensive AI Services as General Intelligence [FHI Technical Report]. Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford. https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Reframing_Superintelligence_FHI-TR-2019-1.1-1.pdf

Eckersley, P., & Nasser, Y. (2017, June 12). AI Progress Measurement. Electronic Frontier Foundation. https://www.eff.org/ai/metrics

Broussard, M. (2019). Artificial Unintelligence: How Computers Misunderstand the World. MIT Press. https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262537018/artificial-unintelligence/

Greer, J. (2022, August 29). The Apocalypse is Coming or Why I’ve Been Existentially Depressed. John Greer. https://www.johncgreer.com/the-apocalypse-is-coming/

Chapman, D. (2023). Better without AI. https://betterwithout.ai/

Barrett, A. M., Hendrycks, D., Newman, J., & Nonnecke, B. (2023). Actionable Guidance for High-Consequence AI Risk Management: Towards Standards Addressing AI Catastrophic Risks (arXiv:2206.08966). arXiv. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2206.08966

Karnofsky, H. (2022, June 9). AI Could Defeat All Of Us Combined. Cold Takes. https://www.cold-takes.com/ai-could-defeat-all-of-us-combined/

“Most important century” series: Roadmap. (2021, September 24). Cold Takes. https://www.cold-takes.com/most-important-century-series-roadmap/

Bai, Y., Kadavath, S., Kundu, S., Askell, A., Kernion, J., Jones, A., Chen, A., Goldie, A., Mirhoseini, A., McKinnon, C., Chen, C., Olsson, C., Olah, C., Hernandez, D., Drain, D., Ganguli, D., Li, D., Tran-Johnson, E., Perez, E., … Kaplan, J. (2022). Constitutional AI: Harmlessness from AI Feedback (arXiv:2212.08073). arXiv. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2212.08073

Boulanin, V., Saalman, L., Topychkanov, P., Su, F., & Carlson, M. P. (2020). Artificial Intelligence, Strategic Stability and Nuclear Risk. Stockholm Peace Research Institute. https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2020-06/artificial_intelligence_strategic_stability_and_nuclear_risk.pdf

Huang, J., Gu, S. S., Hou, L., Wu, Y., Wang, X., Yu, H., & Han, J. (2022). Large Language Models Can Self-Improve (arXiv:2210.11610). arXiv. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2210.11610

Wolfram, S. (2023, February 14). What Is ChatGPT Doing … and Why Does It Work? https://writings.stephenwolfram.com/2023/02/what-is-chatgpt-doing-and-why-does-it-work/ Transcript of EP 181 – Forrest Landry Part 1: AI Risk. (n.d.). Retrieved April 8, 2023, from https://jimruttshow.blubrry.net/the-jim-rutt-show-transcripts/transcript-of-ep-181-forrest-landry-on-ai-risk/

Landry, F. (n.d.). AI Alignment Area Index. MLFB. Retrieved April 8, 2023, from https://mflb.com/ai_alignment_1/index.html#p1

Wu, M., Parbhoo, S., Hughes, M. C., Roth, V., & Doshi-Velez, F. (2019). Optimizing for Interpretability in Deep Neural Networks with Tree Regularization (arXiv:1908.05254). arXiv. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1908.05254

Garg, V. K., & Kalai, A. T. (2017). Meta-Unsupervised-Learning: A supervised approach to unsupervised learning (arXiv:1612.09030). arXiv. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1612.09030

Doshi-Velez, F. (n.d.). Finale Doshi-Velez. https://finale.seas.harvard.edu/

Kim, B. (n.d.). Human-centered AI. https://beenkim.github.io/

Doshi-Velez, F., & Kim, B. (2017). Towards A Rigorous Science of Interpretable Machine Learning (arXiv:1702.08608). arXiv. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1702.08608

Rahwan, I. (2018). Society-in-the-loop: Programming the algorithmic social contract. Ethics and Information Technology, 20(1), 5–14. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10676-017-9430-8

Gabriel, I. (2020). Artificial Intelligence, Values, and Alignment. Minds and Machines, 30(3), 411–437. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11023-020-09539-2

Conitzer, V., Sinnott-Armstrong, W., Schaich Borg, J., Deng, Y., & Kramer, M. (2017). Moral Decision Making Frameworks for Artificial Intelligence. Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 31(1). https://doi.org/10.1609/aaai.v31i1.11140

Amodei, D., Olah, C., Steinhardt, J., Christiano, P., Schulman, J., & Mané, D. (2016). Concrete Problems in AI Safety (arXiv:1606.06565). arXiv. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1606.06565

Hanson, R., & Yudkowsky, E. (n.d.). The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate. Machine Intelligence Research Institute. https://intelligence.org/files/AIFoomDebate.pdf

Lee, K.-F. (2018). AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order. Houghton Mifflin Harcourt.

Kanaan, M. (2020). T-Minus AI: Humanity’s Countdown to Artificial Intelligence and the New Pursuit of Global Power. BenBella Books.

How to make AI trustworthy. (2020). ScienceDaily. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/08/200827105937.htm

10 Breakthrough Technologies 2021. (2021, February 24). MIT Technology Review. https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/02/24/1014369/10-breakthrough-technologies-2021/

Neuro-Symbolic AI Archives. (n.d.). MIT-IBM Watson AI Lab. Retrieved April 8, 2023, from https://mitibmwatsonailab.mit.edu/category/neuro-symbolic-ai/

Marcus, G. (2020). The Next Decade in AI: Four Steps Towards Robust Artificial Intelligence (arXiv:2002.06177). arXiv. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2002.06177

Brown, T. B., Mann, B., Ryder, N., Subbiah, M., Kaplan, J., Dhariwal, P., Neelakantan, A., Shyam, P., Sastry, G., Askell, A., Agarwal, S., Herbert-Voss, A., Krueger, G., Henighan, T., Child, R., Ramesh, A., Ziegler, D. M., Wu, J., Winter, C., … Amodei, D. (2020). Language Models are Few-Shot Learners (arXiv:2005.14165). arXiv. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2005.14165

Potember, R. (2017). Perspectives on Research in Artificial Intelligence and Artificial General Intelligence Relevant to DoD. https://irp.fas.org/agency/dod/jason/ai-dod.pdf

Sculley, D., Holt, G., Golovin, D., Davydov, E., Phillips, T., Ebner, D., Chaudhary, V., & Young, M. (2014). Machine Learning: The High Interest Credit Card of Technical Debt. SE4ML: Software Engineering for Machine Learning (NIPS 2014 Workshop). https://research.google/pubs/pub43146/

King, A., Lippmann, R., Miller, B., Reynolds, D., Richardson, F., Sahin, C., Tran, A., Trepagnier, P., Zipkin, J., Roeser, C., Hennighausen, K., Mohindra, S., & Thornton, J. (2019). Artificial Intelligence: Short History, Present Developments, and Future Outlook. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. https://www.ll.mit.edu/sites/default/files/publication/doc/2021-03/Artificial%20Intelligence%20Short%20History%2C%20Present%20Developments%2C%20and%20Future%20Outlook%20-%20Final%20Report%20-%202021-03-16_0.pdf

Moore, A. W., & Shaneman, S. (2018). The AI stack: A blueprint for developing and deploying artificial intelligence—The Robotics Institute Carnegie Mellon University. https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2309483

Artificial Intelligence Ethics Framework for the Intelligence Community. (2020). Intelligence. https://www.intelligence.gov/artificial-intelligence-ethics-framework-for-the-intelligence-community

Horowitz, M. C. (2018). Artificial Intelligence, International Competition, and the Balance of Power. Texas National Security Review, 1(3), 36–57. https://doi.org/10.15781/T2639KP49

Sisson, M., Spindel, J., & Kozyulin, V. (2020). The Militarization of Artificial Intelligence. Stanley Center for Peace and Security. https://stanleycenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/TheMilitarization-ArtificialIntelligence.pdf

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Allison, G., & Schmidt, E. (2020). Is China Beating the U.S. to AI Supremacy? (Avoiding Great Power Conflict Project). Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. https://www.belfercenter.org/sites/default/files/2020-08/AISupremacy.pdf

Webster, G., Creemers, R., Triolo, P., & Kania, E. (2017). Full Translation: China’s “New Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan” [2017]. New America. http://newamerica.org/cybersecurity-initiative/digichina/blog/full-translation-chinas-new-generation-artificial-intelligence-development-plan-2017/

Allen, G. C. (2019). Understanding China’s AI Strategy: Clues to Chinese Strategic Thinking on Artificial Intelligence and National Security. Center for New American Security. https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org/hero/documents/CNAS-Understanding-Chinas-AI-Strategy-Gregory-C.-Allen-FINAL-2.15.19.pdf?mtime=20190215104041&focal=none

Tanner, M. S. (2017, July 20). Beijing’s New National Intelligence Law: From Defense to Offense. Lawfare. https://www.lawfareblog.com/beijings-new-national-intelligence-law-defense-offense

Zwetsloot, R., & Dafoe, A. (2019, February 11). Thinking About Risks From AI: Accidents, Misuse and Structure. Lawfare. https://www.lawfareblog.com/thinking-about-risks-ai-accidents-misuse-and-structure United Nations Activities on Artificial Intelligence (AI) 2021. (2021). ITU Hub. https://www.itu.int/hub/publication/s-gen-unact-2021/

Yudkowsky, E. (2017, December 7). A reply to Francois Chollet on intelligence explosion. Machine Intelligence Research Institute. https://intelligence.org/2017/12/06/chollet/ Redwood Research. (n.d.). Exploratory AI Alignment Research. Retrieved April 9, 2023, from https://www.redwoodresearch.org

AI Risk Management Framework. (2021, July 12). NIST. https://www.nist.gov/itl/ai-risk-management-framework

Bioterrorism

  • Sharma, A., Gupta, G., Ahmad, T., Krishan, K., & Kaur, B. (2020). Chapter 12 - Next generation agents (synthetic agents): Emerging threats and challenges in detection, protection, and decontamination. In S. J.
  • Tucker, J. B. (Ed.). (2000). Toxic Terror: Assessing Terrorist Use of Chemical and Biological Weapons. MIT Press.
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Blockchain


Democracy / Elections / Politics

  • International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance. (2021). Global State of Democracy 2021. International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance. https://doi.org/10.31752/idea.2021.91*
  • Carpenter, D. P., & Moss, D. A. (Eds.). (2014). Preventing regulatory capture: Special interest influence and how to limit it. Cambridge University Press.


Media / Journalism

Kavanagh, J., & Rich, M. D. (2018). Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life. https://doi.org/10.7249/RR2314*

  • Sedova, K., McNeill, C., Johnson, A., Joshi, A., & Wulkan, I. (2021). AI and the Future of Disinformation Campaigns - Part 1: The RICHDATA Framework. Center for Security and Emerging Technology. https://doi.org/10.51593/2021CA005*
  • Sedova, K., McNeill, C., Johnson, A., Joshi, A., & Wulkan, I. (2021). AI and the Future of Disinformation Campaigns - Part 2: A Threat Model. Center for Security and Emerging Technology. https://doi.org/10.51593/2021CA005*


Refugees / Migration / Poverty / Social Issues


Climate Change / Environment

  • United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security. (2022). Interconnected Disaster Risks 2022. United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security. https://interconnectedrisks.org/*
  • United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security. (2021). UNU Interconnected Disaster Risks Report 2020/2021. United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security. http://collections.unu.edu/view/UNU:8288*
  • Steffen, W., Richardson, K., Rockström, J., Cornell, S. E., Fetzer, I., Bennett, E. M., … Sörlin, S. (2015). Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet. Science, 347(6223), 1259855. doi:10.1126/science.1259855*
  • Beard, S. J., Holt, L., Tzachor, A., Kemp, L., Avin, S., Torres, P., & Belfield, H. (2021). Assessing climate change’s contribution to global catastrophic risk. Futures, 127, 102673. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2020.102673*
  • International Military Council on Climate and Security. (2020). The World Climate and Security Report 2020. International Military Council on Climate and Security. https://imccs.org/report2020/*
  • Izdebski, A., Haldon, J., & Filipkowski, P. (2022). Perspectives on Public Policy in Societal-Environmental Crises: What the Future Needs from History (p. 347). Springer Nature.*


Military / Defense

  • Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. (2022). Environment of Peace: Security in a New Era of Risk. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. https://doi.org/10.55163/LCLS7037*
  • International Military Council on Climate and Security. (2020). The World Climate and Security Report 2020. International Military Council on Climate and Security. https://imccs.org/report2020/*

dEAsign. (n.d.). The threat of synthetic bioterror demands even further action and leadership—EA Forum. EA Forum. Retrieved April 8, 2023, from https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/EArsSv7QuKyy8GyBg/the-threat-of-synthetic-bioterror-demands-even-further


Geopolitics

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Nuclear Weapons

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Biological Threats. Nuclear Threat Initiative. https://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/strengthening-global-systems-to-prevent-and-respond-to-high-consequence-biological-threats/*


Health / Physical & Mental / Natural Disasters


Generalities

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  • Yudkowsky, E. (2017). Inadequate Equilibria: Where and How Civilizations Get Stuck. Machine Intelligence Research Institute.


Debates

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O'Keefe, C., Cihon, P., Garfinkel, B., Flynn, C., Leung, J., & Dafoe, A. (2020, February). The windfall clause: Distributing the benefits of AI for the common good. In Proceedings of the AAAI/ACM Conference on AI, Ethics, and Society (pp. 327-331).*

Greer, J. C. (2022).The Apocalypse is Coming or Why I’ve Been Existentially Depressed. https://www.johncgreer.com/the-apocalypse-is-coming/*


Economics

Constitutional economics. (n.d.). In Wikipedia. Retrieved from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitutional_economics#Hayek

Buchanan, J. M. (1987). The constitution of economic policy. Science, 236(4807), 1433-1436. Perverse incentive. (n.d.). In Wikipedia. Retrieved from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perverse_incentive

  • Hagens, N. J. (2020). Economics for the future–Beyond the superorganism. Ecological Economics, 169, 106520.*

Chinoy, S., Nunn, N., Sequeira, S., & Stantcheva, S. (2022). Zero-Sum Thinking and the Roots of US Political Divides.*

  • Yudkowsky, E. (2013). Intelligence explosion microeconomics. Machine Intelligence Research Institute, accessed online October, 23, 2015.*
  • Yudkowsky, E. (2011). Complex value systems are required to realize valuable futures. The Singularity Institute, San Francisco, CA.*
  • Tooze, A. (2018). Crashed: How a decade of financial crises changed the world. Penguin.*

Marshall Plan. (n.d.). In Wikipedia. Retrieved from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marshall_Plan

  • Carew, A. (1987). Labour under the Marshall Plan: The politics of productivity and the marketing of management science. Wayne State University Press.*

Lowenstein, R. (2011). The Nixon Shock. Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2011-08-04/the-nixon-shock

  • Eichengreen, B. (2011). Exorbitant privilege: The rise and fall of the dollar and the future of the international monetary system. Oxford University Press.*
  • Frum, D. (2008). How we got here: The 70's: the decade that brought you modern life (for better or worse). Basic Books.*
  • Nixon, R. (1971). Address to the nation outlining a new economic policy: The challenge of peace. The American Presidency Project, 15.
  • Garber, P. M. (1993). The collapse of the Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate system. In A retrospective on the Bretton Woods system: Lessons for international monetary reform (pp. 461-494). University of Chicago Press.*
  • Bordo, M. D., & Eichengreen, B. (Eds.). (2007). A retrospective on the Bretton Woods system: lessons for international monetary reform. University of Chicago Press.*
  • Xiaochuan, Z. (2009). Reform the international monetary system. Bis Review, 41, 1-3.

Xin, Z. (2017). China's central bank chief makes reform appeal: 'Please free the yuan'. South China Morning Post. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/article/2114601/chinas-central-bank-chief-makes-reform-appeal-please-free-yuan

  • United Nations General Assembly. (2009). Recommendation of the Commission of Experts of the President of the General Assembly on reforms of the international monetary and financial system. https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/653789
  • Stiglitz, J., Sen, A., & Fitoussi, J. P. (2009). The measurement of economic performance and social progress revisited. Reflections and overview. Commission on the measurement of economic performance and social progress, Paris.

Robert, M., S. Edward,Asher, E. (n.d.). The World Bank since Bretton Woods: The origins, policies, operations, and impact of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the other members of the World Bank Group [Text/HTML]. World Bank. Retrieved March 30, 2023, from https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/306851505231641661/The-World-Bank-since-Bretton-Woods-the-origins-policies-operations-and-impact-of-the-International-Bank-for-Reconstruction-and-Development-and-the-other-members-of-the-World-Bank-Group


Miscellaneous

Aris, B., & Campbell, D. (2004). How Bush’s grandfather helped Hitler’s rise to power. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2004/sep/25/usa.secondworldwar

2022 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community. (2022). Office of the Director of National Intelligence. https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2022-Unclassified-Report.pdf


Finance


International Law

Fassbender, B., & Peters, A. (Eds.). (2012). The Oxford Handbook of the History of International Law. In The Oxford Handbook of the History of International Law (p. 0). Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/law/9780199599752.002.0008

International law. (n.d.). In Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_law International organization. (n.d.). In Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_organization

Nations, U. (n.d.). History of the United Nations. United Nations; United Nations. Retrieved April 8, 2023, from https://www.un.org/en/about-us/history-of-the-un


Non-State Actors


What ??

Christiano, P. (n.d.). Paul F. Christiano. https://paulfchristiano.com/ Piper, K. (n.d.). Kelsey Piper. Vox. https://www.vox.com/authors/kelsey-piper

Until Here

Sustainability, 5(3), 392–402. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2013.07.004 Steffen, W., Sanderson, A., Tyson, P., Jäger, J., Matson, P., Moore, B., Oldfield, F., Richardson, K., Schellnhuber, H. J., Turner, B. L., & Wasson, R. J. (2005). Global Change and the Earth System: A Planet Under Pressure. Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/b137870

Armstrong McKay, D. I., Staal, A., Abrams, J. F., Winkelmann, R., Sakschewski, B., Loriani, S., Fetzer, I., Cornell, S. E., Rockström, J., & Lenton, T. M. (2022). Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points. Science, 377(6611), eabn7950. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn7950

Boers, N., Ghil, M., & Stocker, T. F. (2022). Theoretical and paleoclimatic evidence for abrupt transitions in the Earth system. Environmental Research Letters, 17(9), 093006. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac8944 Mackie, E. (2021). Tipping Points in the Earth System. Cambridge Open Engage. https://doi.org/10.33774/coe-2021-fvll2

Brovkin, V., Brook, E., Williams, J. W., Bathiany, S., Lenton, T. M., Barton, M., DeConto, R. M., Donges, J. F., Ganopolski, A., McManus, J., Praetorius, S., de Vernal, A., Abe-Ouchi, A., Cheng, H., Claussen, M., Crucifix, M., Gallopín, G., Iglesias, V., Kaufman, D. S., … Yu, Z. (2021). Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in the Earth system. Nature Geoscience, 14(8), Article 8. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00790-5

Heinze, C., Blenckner, T., Martins, H., Rusiecka, D., Döscher, R., Gehlen, M., Gruber, N., Holland, E., Hov, Ø., Joos, F., Matthews, J. B. R., Rødven, R., & Wilson, S. (2021). The quiet crossing of ocean tipping points. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 118(9), e2008478118. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2008478118

Pereira, J. C., & Viola, E. (2018). Catastrophic Climate Change and Forest Tipping Points: Blind Spots in International Politics and Policy. Global Policy, 9(4), 513–524. https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.12578

Lenton, T. M., Held, H., Kriegler, E., Hall, J. W., Lucht, W., Rahmstorf, S., & Schellnhuber, H. J. (2008). Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 105(6), 1786–1793. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0705414105

Franzke, C. L. E., Ciullo, A., Gilmore, E. A., Matias, D. M., Nagabhatla, N., Orlov, A., Paterson, S. K., Scheffran, J., & Sillmann, J. (2022). Perspectives on tipping points in integrated models of the natural and human Earth system: Cascading effects and telecoupling. Environmental Research Letters, 17(1), 015004. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac42fd


Wunderling, N., Donges, J. F., Kurths, J., & Winkelmann, R. (2021). Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming. Earth System Dynamics, 12(2), 601-619.

Klose, A. K., Wunderling, N., Winkelmann, R., & Donges, J. F. (2021). What do we mean,‘tipping cascade’?. Environmental Research Letters, 16 (12), 125011.

Xu, X., Zhang, X., Riley, W. J., Xue, Y., Nobre, C. A., Lovejoy, T. E., & Jia, G. (2022). Deforestation triggering irreversible transition in Amazon hydrological cycle. Environmental Research Letters, 17(3), 034037. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01263-3.

Pinho, P. F., Anjos, L. J., Rodrigues-Filho, S., Santos, D. V., & Toledo, P. M. (2020). Projections of Brazilian biomes resilience and socio-environmental risks to climate change. Sustainability in Debate, 11(3), 225-259.

Wunderling, N., Staal, A., Sakschewski, B., Hirota, M., Tuinenburg, O. A., Donges, J. F., ... & Winkelmann, R. (2022). Recurrent droughts increase risk of cascading tipping events by outpacing adaptive capacities in the Amazon rainforest. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 119(32), e2120777119.

Lawrence, D., & Vandecar, K. (2015). Effects of tropical deforestation on climate and agriculture. Nature Climate Change, 5(1), 27-36. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2430.

Boers, N., & Rypdal, K. (2021). Critical slowing down suggests that the western Greenland Ice Sheet is close to a tipping point. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 118(23), e2024192118. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2024192118.

Feldmann, J., & Levermann, A. (2015). Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet after local destabilization of the Amundsen Basin. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 112(46), 14191-14196. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1512482112.

Rosier, S. H. R., Gudmundsson, G. H., & Green, J. A. M. (2021). The tipping points and early warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica. The Cryosphere, 15(3), 1501-1516. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1501-2021.

Rockström, J., Steffen, W., Noone, K., Persson, Å., Chapin III, F. S., Lambin, E. F., ... & Nykvist, B. (2009). Planetary boundaries: exploring the safe operating space for humanity. Ecology and Society, 14(2). https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-03180-140232.

Gupta, J., Liverman, D., Prodani, K., Aldunce, P., Bai, X., Broadgate, W., ... & Verburg, P. H. (2023). Earth system justice needed to identify and live within Earth system boundaries. Nature Sustainability, 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-023-01064-1.

Mengel, M., Levermann, A., & Born, A. (2012). Enhanced Atlantic subpolar gyre variability through baroclinic threshold in a coarse resolution model. Earth System Dynamics, 3(2), 189-197. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-3-189-2012.

Swingedouw, D., Bily, A., Esquerdo, C., Borchert, L. F., Sgubin, G., Mignot, J., & Menary, M. (2021). On the risk of abrupt changes in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in CMIP6 models. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1504(1), 187-201.

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Chen, D. B., van der Beek, J., & Cloud, J. (2019). Hypothesis for a Risk Cost of Carbon: Revising the Externalities and Ethics of Climate Change. Understanding Risks and Uncertainties in Energy and Climate Policy: Multidisciplinary Methods and Tools for a Low Carbon Society, 183-222. Chen, D. (2018). Utility of the blockchain for climate mitigation. The Journal of The British Blockchain Association, 1(1).

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Battersby, S. (2017). Can humankind escape the tragedy of the commons?. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 114(1), 7-10. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1619877114

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sovereignty, international relations, and the myth of westphalia - https://www.jstor.org/stable/3078632

two meanings of complex adaptative systems - https://davidsloanwilson.world/papers-and-studies/two-meanings-of-complex-adaptive-systems/

building the global seismographic network for nuclear test ban - https://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~richards/EARTHmat.html

EROI research 

 - https://www.energyflux.news/p/scraping-the-barrel
 - EROI of different fuels and implications for society - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421513003856 
 - Nate EROI constistent framwork - https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18488548/ 
 - economics for the future - https://reader.elsevier.com/reader/sd/pii/S0921800919310067?token=EF40DD6D625BDDF73A661B6DD9BA3F33DA7C35B7ADAE69F1F9A2BA81F5192C31F010BB977D7762C2056745F300BAFE5D&originRegion=us-east-1&originCreation=20220919182307


Pace layering: how complex systems learn - https://jods.mitpress.mit.edu/pub/issue3-brand/release/2


At risk - natural hazards, vulnerabilities - https://www.preventionweb.net/files/670_72351.pdf


Unraveling the complexities of disaster management - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277953612005953


Use of CAS for modeling global change - https://dlc.dlib.indiana.edu/dlc/bitstream/handle/10535/2630/use_of_complex.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y


Organizing theories of disaster into CAS framework - mckinsey global institution: on the cusp of a new era https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/risk/our%20insights/on%20the%20cusp%20of%20a%20new%20era/mgi-on-the-cusp-of-a-new-era.pdf

Opportunities and risks of foundations ml models - https://arxiv.org/pdf/2108.07258.pdf


Large language models improving recursively - https://arxiv.org/abs/2210.11610


the case for degrowth - https://www.wiley.com/en-gb/The+Case+for+Degrowth-p-9781509535620


windfall clause - https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/windfallclause/


at last an ai risk rpolicy -https://www.slowboring.com/p/at-last-an-ai-existential-risk-policy?utm_source=email


what's long-term about longtermism - https://www.slowboring.com/p/whats-long-term-about-longtermism



actionable guidance for high-consequence AI risk management: standards addressing AI catastrophic risks - - https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.08966



CIP whitepaper - https://static1.squarespace.com/static/631d02b2dfa9482a32db47ec/t/63e01fcbf73bb003a722792f/1675632588509/CIP+Whitepaper.pdf


cooperative AI - https://www.cooperativeai.com/


conceptualizing world-earth system resilience - wolfram barfuss -- https://arxiv.org/pdf/2204.04471.pdf


vincent conitzer & ai agents may cooperate better if they don't resemble us - https://www.cooperativeai.com/seminars/ai-agents-may-cooperate-better-if-they-dont-resemble-us


challenges and approaches to scaling the global commons - https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fbloc.2021.578721/full


assessing the drivers of GCRs (global challenges foundation) - https://globalchallenges.org/assessing-the-drivers-of-global-catastrophic-risk-final/



the model is the message - https://www.noemamag.com/the-model-is-the-message/

Collapse - https://muse.jhu.edu/book/43700/#:~:text=In%20Beyond%20Collapse%3A%20Archaeological%20Perspectives,and%20reorganization%20of%20complex%20societies

Cser science and policy interface https://www.cser.ac.uk/media/uploads/files/UCA970_Report_on_the_challenge_of_GCRs_v10_AW_FOR_EMAILDOWNLOAD.pdf


Comprehensive list of arms control agreements - https://www.armscontrol.org/treaties John greer ai apocalypse https://www.johncgreer.com/the-apocalypse-is-coming/ Bretton woods project https://www.brettonwoodsproject.org/ Human development report UN Constitutional economics - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitutional_economics#Hayek Buchanan nobel lecture - https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/1986/buchanan/lecture/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perverse_incentive


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-26/goodhart-s-law-rules-the-modern-world-here-are-nine-examples#xj4y7vzkg


https://towardsdatascience.com/unintended-consequences-and-goodharts-law-68d60a94705c


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodhart%27s_law https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/european-review/article/abs/improving-ratings-audit-in-the-british-university-system/FC2EE640C0C44E3DB87C29FB666E9AAB https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afghanistan_Papers https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_11_56


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_choice


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Externality


https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/stantcheva/files/lecture7.pdf


https://scholar.harvard.edu/stantcheva/home


https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/stantcheva/files/zero_sum_us_political_divides.pdf


https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/basics/pdf/helbling-externalities.pdf

Israel strikes defense compound in iran - https://www.wsj.com/articles/israel-strikes-iran-amid-new-international-push-to-contain-tehran-11675004979

Intelligence explosion microeconomics - https://intelligence.org/files/IEM.pdf

Ai alignment why its’ hard and where to start - https://intelligence.org/2016/12/28/ai-alignment-why-its-hard-and-where-to-start/

Complex value systems are required to realize valuable futures - ​​https://intelligence.org/files/ComplexValues.pdf

Bancor - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bancor

Adam tooze’ crash - https://www.amazon.com/Crashed-Decade-Financial-Crises-Changed/dp/0670024937

Special drawing rights - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_drawing_rights

Triffin dilemma - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triffin_dilemma

Marshall plan - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marshall_Plan

Labour under the marshall plan - https://archive.org/details/labourundermarsh0000care

Nixon shock - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nixon_shock

The nixon shock - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2011-08-04/the-nixon-shock#xj4y7vzkg

https://web.archive.org/web/20150916005310/http://www.federalreservehistory.org/Events/DetailView/28

Exorbitatn privilege - rise and fall of the dollar - https://books.google.com/books?id=TIlpAgAAQBAJ&pg=PA4#v=onepage&q&f=false

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exorbitant_privilege

Shrinking gold supply - https://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/center/mm/eng/sc_sub_3.htm

How we got here - the 70s https://books.google.com/books?id=hNsSttYnmxsC&pg=PA296#v=onepage&q&f=false

Nixon’s address “the challenge of peace” - https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/address-the-nation-outlining-new-economic-policy-the-challenge-peace

The collapse of the bretton woods fixed exchange rate system - https://www.nber.org/system/files/chapters/c6876/c6876.pdf

A retrospective on teh bretton woods system - ​​https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/R/bo3632896.html

Zhou xiaochuan: reform the international monetary system - https://www.bis.org/review/r090402c.pdf

China’s central bank chief makes reform appeal - https://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/article/2114601/chinas-central-bank-chief-makes-reform-appeal-please-free-yuan

Recommendation of the commision of experts of the preseitn of the general assembly on reforms of the IMF – https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/653789?ln=en#record-files-collapse-header

Commission on the measurement of economic performance and social progress - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commission_on_the_Measurement_of_Economic_Performance_and_Social_Progress The measurement of economic performance and social progress revisited - https://web.archive.org/web/20140211022119/http://www.stiglitz-sen-fitoussi.fr/documents/overview-eng.pdf

International monetary fund - reserve accumulation and international monetary stability - https://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2010/041310.pdf

Bretton woods conference - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_Conference

The world bank since bretton woods - https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/306851505231641661/the-world-bank-since-bretton-woods-the-origins-policies-operations-and-impact-of-the-international-bank-for-reconstruction-and-development-and-the-other-members-of-the-world-bank-group

Bretton woods transcripts – https://www.amazon.com/Bretton-Woods-Transcripts-Kurt-Schuler/dp/1941801013

General agreement on tariffs and trade - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Agreement_on_Tariffs_and_Trade

John maynard keynes and international relations: economic paths to war and peace – https://www.amazon.com/John-Maynard-Keynes-International-Relations/dp/0198292368

Federal reserve, creation of the bertton woods system - https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/bretton-woods-created

Bretton woods system - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_system

Keynes the economic consequences of the peace – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Economic_Consequences_of_the_Peace





How it feels to have your mind hacked by an AI - https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9kQFure4hdDmRBNdH/how-it-feels-to-have-your-mind-hacked-by-an-ai

Gradient Dissent - better without AI - https://betterwithout.ai/gradient-dissent Artificial neurons considered harmful - https://betterwithout.ai/artificial-neurons-considered-harmful A better future without backpropagation - https://betterwithout.ai/beyond-backprop How to understand AI systems - https://betterwithout.ai/understanding-AI-systems

Language theoretic security - http://langsec.org/ Capability-based security - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capability-based_security Capability hardware enhanced RISC instructions - https://www.cl.cam.ac.uk/research/security/ctsrd/cheri/ Limits to reasoning, reduction, and simulation - https://betterwithout.ai/limits-to-AI-simulation#fn_Lowe_Shrager


Here’s why we’re not prepared for the next wave of biotech innovation - https://www.statnews.com/2022/11/03/why-were-not-prepared-for-next-wave-of-biotech-innovation/


Alignment research center - https://alignment.org/


Towards a philosophy of safety - https://rootsofprogress.org/towards-a-philosophy-of-safety



Yudokowsy’s reply to chollet on intelligence explosion - https://intelligence.org/2017/12/06/chollet/ Pugwash conferences on science and world affairs - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pugwash_Conferences_on_Science_and_World_Affairs


Russell- einstein manifesto - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russell%E2%80%93Einstein_Manifesto


Perhaps it is a bad thing that the world’s leading AI companies cannot control their AIs - https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/perhaps-it-is-a-bad-thing-that-the


My current summary of the state of AI risk - https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2023/02/17/my-current-summary-of-the-state-of-ai-risk/


Most people start with the same few bad ideas (ai alignment) - https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Afdohjyt6gESu4ANf/most-people-start-with-the-same-few-bad-ideas


Worlds where iterative design fails - https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xFotXGEotcKouifky/worlds-where-iterative-design-fails#Why_RLHF_Is_Uniquely_Terrible


Redwood research AI alignment - https://www.redwoodresearch.org/


Here’s what it would take to slow down AI - https://www.jonstokes.com/p/heres-what-it-would-take-to-slow


Is it time to hit pause on AI - https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/is-it-time-to-hit-the-pause-button Preventing regulatory capture - https://www.tobinproject.org/books-papers/preventing-capture The alignment problem from a deep learning perspective - https://arxiv.org/pdf/2209.00626.pdf Inadequate equilibria - https://equilibriabook.com/ Fine tuning language models to find agreement among diverse preferences - https://openreview.net/forum?id=G5ADoRKiTyJ Categorizing variants of goodhart’s law - https://arxiv.org/pdf/1803.04585.pdf Building less flawed metrics - https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/98288/5/MPRA_paper_98288.pdf Impossibility and uncertainty theorems in AI alignment - https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.00064.pdf Reliance on metrics is a fundamental problem for AI - https://arxiv.org/pdf/2002.08512.pdf history of international law - https://academic.oup.com/edited-volume/43488 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_law international organizations -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_organization prescott bush funding the third reich - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2004/sep/25/usa.secondworldwar




global reserve currency histories https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_currency https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserve_currency history of the united nations https://www.un.org/en/about-us/history-of-the-un mutually assured destruction - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_assured_destruction The threat of synthetic bioterror demands even further action and leadership - EA Forum forum.effectivealtruism.com

Complete genomes: Ebolavirus ncbi.nlm.nih.gov Viruses and Bioterrorism - PMC ncbi.nlm.nih.gov Next generation agents (synthetic agents): Emerging threats and challenges in detection, protection, and decontamination - PMC ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

A vaccine printer at your local drugstore? We are making it happen - Telesis Bio telesisbio.com Printing vaccines at the pharmacy or at home will be the way of the future | Ars Technica arstechnica.com

Bioterrorism interpol.int Bioterrorism: Applying the Lens of COVID-19 - Report 2021 london.gov.uk Toxic Terror mitpress.mit.edu Overstatements and Understatements in the Debate on Synthetic Biology, Bioterrorism and Ethics frontiersin.org The myths (and realities) of synthetic bioweapons - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists thebulletin.org Impact of Synthetic Genomics on the Threat of Bioterrorism with Viral Agents dspace.mit.edu Synthetic Viral Genomics: Risks and Benefits for Science and Society Ralph S. Baric University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill jcvi.org Engineered Pathogens and Unnatural Biological Weapons: The Future Threat of Synthetic Biology ctc.westpoint.edu

Using Blockchain to Store Illicit or Copyrighted Content: To Censor or Validate? Beincrypto.com The risks and unintended consequences of blockchain - https://mitsloan.mit.edu/ideas-made-to-matter/risks-and-unintended-consequences-blockchain Zero knowledge proofs and nuclear disarmament - https://academy.affinidi.com/applications-of-zero-knowledge-proofs-part-2-nuclear-disarmament-abb5c879a7c5 https://www.science.org/content/article/nuclear-physicists-may-have-just-invented-zero-knowledge-warhead-inspection-system https://news.mit.edu/2018/nuclear-weapons-isotope-detection-method-0419 https://mae.princeton.edu/about-mae/spotlight/zero-knowledge-proof-verification-without-information Conflict vs mistake theory - https://slatestarcodex.com/ Hanlon’s razor - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon%27s_razor#:~:text=Hanlon's%20razor%20is%20an%20adage,unlikely%20explanations%20for%20human%20behavior. US Intelligence Community's Annual Threat Assessment 2022 Report Summary Report And for 2023 National Intelligence Council's Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World Summary The yuan is an unlikely winner from russia’s growing isolation - https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-03-14/russia-ukraine-the-yuan-is-an-unlikely-winner-from-moscow-s-isolation?leadSource=uverify%20wall Saudi arabia considers accepting yuan instead of dollars for chinese oil sales - https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-considers-accepting-yuan-instead-of-dollars-for-chinese-oil-sales-11647351541 Nonstate actors, warfare, entropy - https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/the-new-era-of-non-state-actors-warfare-and-entropy https://www.researchgate.net/publication/344848497_The_Rise_of_Non-State_Actors_in_Globalization_and_Democratization_Era_Terrorist_Group_versus_State_Actors Democracy in multipolar world - https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0305829809103232 Governing Boring Apocolypse- The vulnerable world hypothesis - https://nickbostrom.com/papers/vulnerable.pdf The fragile world hypothesis - https://philpapers.org/archive/MANSFA-3.pdf assessing the drivers of GCRs (global challenges foundation) - https://globalchallenges.org/assessing-the-drivers-of-global-catastrophic-risk-final/ Ord’s the precipice Daniel deudney Dark skies Bounding power AI and the future of disinformation campaigns - georgetown Stanford university AI index report 2022- https://aiindex.stanford.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/2022-AI-Index-Report_Master.pdf Forecasting potential misuses of language models for disinformation campaigns - https://cyber.fsi.stanford.edu/news/forecasting-potential-misuses-language-models-disinformation-campaigns-and-how-reduce-risk Toward trustworthy AI development - https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.07213 Opportunities and risks of foundations ml models - https://arxiv.org/pdf/2108.07258.pdf history of AI research (2010 - -what’s the change ?) https://ai.stanford.edu/~nilsson/QAI/qai.pdf decolonial AI theory : https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13347-020-00405-8 moores law for everything https://moores.samaltman.com reframing superintelligence - comprehensive AI services as General intelligence https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Reframing_Superintelligence_FHI-TR-2019-1.1-1.pdf EFF AI Progress Measurement: https://www.eff.org/ai/metrics Artificial unintelligence: How computers misunderstand the world (Broussard) https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/artificial-unintelligence John greer ai apocalypse https://www.johncgreer.com/the-apocalypse-is-coming/ better without AI link: https://betterwithout.ai/ actionable guidance for high-consequence AI risk management: standards addressing AI catastrophic risks - - https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.08966 ai could defeat all of us combined - https://www.cold-takes.com/ai-could-defeat-all-of-us-combined/ most important century series - https://www.cold-takes.com/most-important-century-series-roadmap/ anthropic constitutional AI - https://www.anthropic.com/constitutional.pdf Artificial intelligence, strategic stability and nuclear risk https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2020-06/artificial_intelligence_strategic_stability_and_nuclear_risk.pdf Large language models can self improve - https://arxiv.org/abs/2210.11610 What is chatgpt doing - https://writings.stephenwolfram.com/2023/02/what-is-chatgpt-doing-and-why-does-it-work/ Forrest on AI risk - https://mflb.com/ai_alignment_1/single_post_psr.html#note3 & https://mflb.com/ai_alignment_1/index.html optimizing for interpretability in deep neural nets with tree regularization - https://www.jair.org/index.php/jair/article/view/12558/26715


meta-unsupervised-learning: supervised approach to unsupervised learning - https://arxiv.org/pdf/1612.09030.pdf


finale doshi-velez - https://finale.seas.harvard.edu/


been kim - humam-centered AI - https://beenkim.github.io/


towards a rigrous science of interpretable ML - https://arxiv.org/pdf/1702.08608.pdf



society-in-the-loop: programming the algorithmic social contract - https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10676-017-9430-8


artificial intelligence, values, and alignment - https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11023-020-09539-2 moral decision making frameworks for AI - https://users.cs.duke.edu/~conitzer/moralAAAI17.pdf Concrete problems in AI safety https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.06565 Hanson yudokowsky debate - http://intelligence.org/files/AIFoomDebate.pdf ai superpowers - https://www.amazon.com/AI-Superpowers-China-Silicon-Valley/dp/0358105587/ref=asc_df_0358105587/?


t-minus ai - https://www.amazon.com/T-Minus-Humanitys-Countdown-Artificial-Intelligence/dp/1948836947

How to make ai trustworthy - https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/08/200827105937.htm Mit tech review - https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/02/24/1014369/10-breakthrough-technologies-2021/ Neuro-symbolic AI - https://mitibmwatsonailab.mit.edu/category/neuro-symbolic-ai/ Marcu,s, next decade in AI : four steps towards robust artificial intelligence - https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.06177 Language models are few-shot learners - https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165 Darpa perspective on artificial intelligence - https://www.darpa.mil/attachments/AIFull.pdf Machine learning: high interest credit card of technical debt- https://research.google/pubs/pub43146/ Artificial intelligence history, developments, prospects - https://www.ll.mit.edu/sites/default/files/publication/doc/2021-03/Artificial%20Intelligence%20Short%20History%2C%20Present%20Developments%2C%20and%20Future%20Outlook%20-%20Final%20Report%20-%202021-03-16_0.pdf The AI stack: https://www.spiedigitallibrary.org/conference-proceedings-of-spie/10635/2309483/The-AI-stack--a-blueprint-for-developing-and-deploying/10.1117/12.2309483.short Ai ethics framework for the intelligence community - https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/AI_Ethics_Framework_for_the_Intelligence_Community_10.pdf Artificial intelligence international competition and the balance of power - https://repositories.lib.utexas.edu/bitstream/handle/2152/65638/TNSR-Vol-1-Iss-3_Horowitz.pdf?sequence=2&isAllowed=y Militarization of AI - https://stanleycenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/MilitarizationofAI-Russia.pdf DOD ethics of AI - https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/2091996/dod-adopts-ethical-principles-for-artificial-intelligence/ Is China beating the US to AI supremacy - https://www.belfercenter.org/sites/default/files/2020-08/AISupremacy.pdf China’s new generation of artificial intelligence translation - https://www.newamerica.org/cybersecurity-initiative/digichina/blog/full-translation-chinas-new-generation-artificial-intelligence-development-plan-2017/ Understanding China’s AI strategy - https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/understanding-chinas-ai-strategy Beijing’s New National Intelligence LAw - https://www.lawfareblog.com/beijings-new-national-intelligence-law-defense-offense Framework for AI risk - https://www.lawfareblog.com/thinking-about-risks-ai-accidents-misuse-and-structure UN ON AI The latest and first report on United Nations Activities on Artificial Intelligence (AI) 2021 can be found here. As per the associated website, the report is characterized as an “interactive directory [and] highlights over 200 cases and AI projects run by the UN system, covering all 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) ranging from smart agriculture and food systems to transportation, financial services, healthcare and AI solutions to combat COVID-19. In this edition, 46 UN entities were contacted, 40 entities participated, and 226 projects have been presented.” Eliezer yudkowsky - we’re all gonna die – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gA1sNLL6yg4 Minute 28 he describes super intelligence x-risk scenario Resources pulled from this: Debate with chollet on intelligence explosion - https://intelligence.org/2017/12/06/chollet/ Redwood ai alignment research - https://www.redwoodresearch.org/ Paul christanio - https://paulfchristiano.com/ Kelsey piper - https://www.vox.com/authors/kelsey-piper NIST AI risk governance framework - https://www.nist.gov/itl/ai-risk-management-framework Quantifying Earth system interactions for sustainable food production via expert elicitation, Chrysafi et al. (2022) Knowledge mapping of planetary boundaries based on bibliometric analysis, Chen et al. (2022) Our future in the Anthropocene biosphere, Folke et al. (2021) Agriculture production as a major driver of the Earth system exceeding planetary boundaries, Campbell et al. (2017) The role of soil in defining planetary boundaries and the safe operating space for humanity, Kopittke et al. (2021) Planetary boundaries at the intersection of Earth system law, science and governance: A state-of-the-art review, Kim & Kotze (2020) Identifying Chemicals That Are Planetary Boundary Threats, MacLeod et al. (2014) Towards a physically motivated planetary accounting framework, Barbosa et al. (2020) Powering sustainable development within planetary boundaries, Algunabeit et al. (2019) Integrating the planetary boundaries and global catastrophic risk paradigms, Baum & Handoh (2014)


Tipping points Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Armstrong-McKay et al. (2022) Theoretical and paleoclimatic evidence for abrupt transitions in the Earth system, Boers et al. (2022) Tipping Points in the Earth System, Mackie (2021) Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in the Earth system, Brovkin et al. (2021) The quiet crossing of ocean tipping points, Heinze et al. (2021)

Catastrophic Climate Change and Forest Tipping Points: Blind Spots in International Politics and Policy (2018) Tipping elements of the Earth’s climate system, Lenton et al. (2008) Perspectives on tipping points in integrated models of the natural and human Earth system: cascading effects and telecoupling, Franzke et al. (2022) Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming, Wunderling et al. (2021) What do we mean, ‘tipping cascade’ Klose et al. (2021) Deforestation triggering irreversible transition in Amazon hydrological cycle, Xu et al. (2022)

…


Projections of Brazilian biomes resilience and socio-environmental risks to climate change, Pinho et al. (2020) Recurrent droughts increase risk of cascading tipping events by outpacing adaptive capacities in the Amazon rainforest, Wunderling et al. (2021) Effects of tropical deforestation on climate and agriculture, Lawrence & Vandercar (2015) Critical slowing down suggests that the western Greenland Ice Sheet is close to a tipping point, Boers & Rypdal (2021) Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet after local destabilization of the Amundsen Basin Feldmann & Levermann (2015) The tipping points and early warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica Rosier et al. (2021) Rockström, Johan, et al. "Planetary boundaries: exploring the safe operating space for humanity." Ecology and society 14.2 (2009). Earth systems justice - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-023-01064-1


Enhanced Atlantic subpolar gyre variability through baroclinic threshold in a coarse resolution model, Mengel et al. (2012)


On the risk of abrupt changes in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in CMIP6 models, Swingedouw et al. (2021) Perspectives on tipping points in integrated models of the natural and human Earth system: cascading effects and telecoupling, Franzke et al. (2022) Impact of an AMOC weakening on the stability of the southern Amazon rainforest, Ciemer et al. (2021)



Thomas homer dixon environment , scarcity, violence Ingenuity gap The upside of down Commanding hope

delay, detect, defend - thousands can release new pandemics -- https://dam.gcsp.ch/files/doc/gcsp-geneva-paper-29-22 https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-biotechnology/ current edition on emerging risks of tech - https://technologyandsociety.org/transactions/current-edition/ next generation security challenges - https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?tp=&arnumber=9889776 BISMARCK ON DRONES https://spectrum.ieee.org/lethal-autonomous-weapons-exist-they-must-be-banned#toggle-gdpr army of none - https://www.amazon.com/Army-None-Autonomous-Weapons-Future/dp/0393608980 Autonomous weapons are new territory for arms races and therefore a new semi-precedented MPT – particularly cause it’s post nuclear Exampels kill chain - https://www.amazon.com/Kill-Chain-Defending-America-High-Tech/dp/031653353X Us perspective of new warfare given tech – security theory and examples the fifth domain- https://www.amazon.com/Fifth-Domain-Defending-Companies-Ourselves/dp/052556196X Cyber security defense


dark territory - https://www.amazon.com/Dark-Territory-Secret-History-Cyber/dp/1476763267


sandworm - https://www.amazon.com/Sandworm-Cyberwar-Kremlins-Dangerous-Hackers/dp/0385544405

Risk from authoritarianism https://www.overcomingbias.com/2018/11/world-government-risks-collective-suicide.html CYBER See notes on foresight’s defend against cyber threats fragile world hypothesis - https://philpapers.org/archive/MANSFA-3.pdf vulnerable world hypothesis - https://nickbostrom.com/papers/vulnerable.pdf lethal autonomous weapons exist - https://spectrum.ieee.org/lethal-autonomous-weapons-exist-they-must-be-banned us rejects bio weapons convention protocol - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1173329/ ensuring compliance with the bio weapons convention - https://armscontrolcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/SWG-sponsored-bwc_compliance-meeting-1.pdf benefits and risks of biotech - https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-biotechnology/ the malicious use of AI https://img1.wsimg.com/blobby/go/3d82daa4-97fe-4096-9c6b-376b92c619de/downloads/MaliciousUseofAI.pdf?ver=1553030594217 Advanced Persistent Threat Compromise of Government Agencies, Critical Infrastructure, and Private Sector Organizations - https://www.cisa.gov/uscert/ncas/alerts/aa20-352a chinese state-sponsored cyber operations - https://www.cisa.gov/uscert/ncas/alerts/aa21-200b cyber war - https://www.amazon.com/Cyber-War-Threat-National-Security/dp/0061962244 transparent society - https://www.amazon.com/Transparent-Society-Technology-Between-Privacy/dp/0738201448#:~:text=The%20Transparent%20Society%20is%20full,than%20one%20where%20secrecy%20reigns. world government risks collective suicide - https://www.overcomingbias.com/2018/11/world-government-risks-collective-suicide.html the great filter - https://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/greatfilter.html engines of creation - https://archive.org/details/enginesofcreatio0000drex/page/188/mode/2up nano solutions for the 21st century - https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/201310Nano_Solutions.pdf big nanotech - https://web.archive.org/web/20181123032424/https://www.theguardian.com/science/small-world/2013/oct/14/big-nanotech-post-industrial-manufacturing-apm the precipice - https://theprecipice.com/ treaty on non-proliferation of nuclear weapons - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons risks and benefits of gain-of-function research - https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/21666/potential-risks-and-benefits-of-gain-of-function-research-summary gernot heiser - https://gernot-heiser.org/ computer security as the future of law - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kOFzisF7aNw long tail problem in ai, autonomous markets, ali yahya - https://a16z.com/2020/07/24/long-tail-problem-in-a-i/ ethereum is dark forest - https://www.paradigm.xyz/2020/08/ethereum-is-a-dark-forest cyber security links architectures of robust openness - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NAfjEnu6R2g&list=PLzDw4TTug5O0ywHrOz4VevVTYr6Kj_KtW&index=24&t=714s horton; delegating responsibility in digital systems - https://research.google/pubs/pub33037/ automated vulnerability detection - https://arxiv.org/pdf/1702.06162.pdf https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/2692915.2628165 http://static1.1.sqspcdn.com/static/f/543048/26931843/1464016046717/A2_SP_2016.pdf?token=dkkDM4KAn4b1AbIo4Df%2Bxa0U2YM%3D Colonial pipeline ransomware attack - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colonial_Pipeline_ransomware_attack

Peter zeihan’s the end of the world is just the beginning



Further Resources Section: individuals, organizations, and articles

VERTIC’s Verification and Implementation - Analysis on International Agreements About VERTIC: “The Verification Research, Training and Information Centre (VERTIC) is an independent, not-for-profit, non-governmental organization. Our mission is to support the development, implementation and effectiveness of international agreements and related regional and national initiatives, with particular attention to issues of monitoring, review, legislation and verification”


Remote Sensing and Environmental Treaties work by SEDAC - last updated 2006


Walter Dorn Book: PeaceKeeping Satellites: The Case for International Surveillance and Verification Book: Keeping Watch: Monitoring, Technology & Innovation in UN Peace Operations


Ram Avtar Article: “Utilizing geospatial information to implement SDGs and monitor their progress” Article: “Assessing Sustainable Development Prospects through Remote Sensing” Article: “Remote sensing for international peace and security”


Daniel Deudney, author of Dark Skies: Space Expansionism, Planetary Geopolitics, and the Ends of Humanity


Gain Forest – integrating AI enabled smart-contracts with satellite data for sustainability purposes


UNOSAT – the United Nations Operational Satellite Applications Programme


The Geospatial Technology and Human Rights program at the American Association for the Advancement of Science


Miscellaneous articles “The Use of remote sensing satellites for verification in international law” “Sattelite imagery as evidence for international crimes” “Emerging issues facing the use of remote sensing evidence of international criminal justice” “Remote sensing in human rights and international humanitarian law monitoring: concepts and methods” “Problems from hell, solution in the heavens?: identifying obstacles and opportunities employing geospatial tech to mitigate mass atrocities”




Bo Rothstein quality of government standard dataset codebook - https://www.qogdata.pol.gu.se/dataarchive/qog_std_jan21.pdf oxford handbook of quality of government - https://academic.oup.com/edited-volume/33431 controlling corruption: the social contract approach - https://academic.oup.com/book/39713 causes of corruption - https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781315739175-9/causes-corruption-bo-rothstein-jan-teorell from routledge handbook of political corruption - https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/edit/10.4324/9781315739175/routledge-handbook-political-corruption-paul-heywood?refId=ef337ce5-a1c0-4dea-a6f2-ecfc1f686c0b&context=ubx good societies need good leaders on a leash - https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1057/9781137556288_2


trusting other people - https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/pa.1645 preventing markets from self-destruction: the quality of government factor - -file:///Users/creativityculture/Downloads/SSRN-id1328819.pdf the indirect strategy for fighting systemic corruption - https://watermark.silverchair.com/daed_a_00501.pdf?token=AQECAHi208BE49Ooan9kkhW_Ercy7Dm3ZL_9Cf3qfKAc485ysgAAAq8wggKrBgkqhkiG9w0BBwagggKcMIICmAIBADCCApEGCSqGSIb3DQEHATAeBglghkgBZQMEAS4wEQQMnCjTjeHz-v6KritpAgEQgIICYpmfLmcJs-yfV9YshggCwStBc8vlsI1bqdVH4DCAbTksSVRF1rbyjCvjzSIZSs5MzaAoXexQB7y1gKlr7UIxxz76bo9CZ2yXDShBwAMMstVhOD518P3_lC6l8eVHj-ueCxJdsaTqegnnsyX2JBYb1iHgSdHNRmdHb_6P9g7DX-G4HPO35qI7H6OHH1je5r-XFmhsRXlf6LMzKhll4op8QXMOkUDiUUFUKvGwjymL5Hl6BeQnhRG54goHy_NgL-MTe9sylIdhBonhUgeK1QJ1iFYEuqTb6t2Y_9T88ej2Bbcim2RKwzmzweoTujYo6JIO6bu4hjz425MSPDefJDr9cWUp1CkANCVSNv6aoFljVHR57N2oQObkTCTScs56CYhdbiZ_4q9LeSgoHeU0Fox7aJEwzXdu4FWUWWH_6C9oadxGpRuJut2I8v8ChgZKieTijey4-XOsxwxsjWb5_fkJHAr_eK07MPmjRoHWIjJ4qCBEtrSxab70jPItVafSQs8f8EdLuI7Atc6vdJO9lKvJZ7lPTsgYTvol7-ZPtYvMFjhp5CUnIRKZq_v6Oq8nQVTEilhWFgkAADH2umG5Pr5l5ld_4Y9eLSAR4a3N3FAl4k0YfRY_k_UP8NqkNieSuLPqsyiUQICE8QvwnfvH5HZfRuR99BDrx_CViuoAJ68AeOPYr3vITwR2bQTz5-wi7mOQ4oA_bWexWbMRRcEzdmTp7X1QfgeLGwNUdUn5evFvcf0MKpOc6ANxV_gkXu_SldLEWDPJSb8AmwsPBfS3-P3tt1wZdwdUrdTcFw076P1wVFQdz_U regions of trust and distrust: how good institutions can foster social cohesion - https://ora.ox.ac.uk/catalog/uuid:e20194bb-663c-4e66-92f5-00e2904404b8/download_file?file_format=application%2Fpdf&safe_filename=Regions%2Bof%2BTrust%2Band%2BDistrust%2BTBP.pdf epistemic democracy and the quality of government - https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23745118.2018.1515873 getting the basic nature of systemic corruption right- https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gove.12403


ortwin renn: https://www.iass-potsdam.de/en/people/ortwin-renn#m-tab-0-selectedpublications systemic risk perspective: social perception of uncertainty and tipping points -https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-74458-8_2 social perception of systemic risks - https://publications.iass-potsdam.de/rest/items/item_6001249_6/component/file_6001250/content risks and opportunities of the digital transformation - https://revistaidees.cat/en/risks-and-opportunities-of-the-digital-transformation/ risk communication - https://publications.iass-potsdam.de/rest/items/item_6001774_2/component/file_6001973/content call for international research on global polycrisis - https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4058592 transdisciplinarity: synthesis towards a modular approach - https://publications.iass-potsdam.de/rest/items/item_6000908_2/component/file_6000909/content characteristics, potentials, and challenges of transdisciplinary research - https://public

Jeremy pitt -https://www.imperial.ac.uk/people/j.pitt/publications.html?respub-action=search.html&id=00004695&limit=30&keywords=collective+action&iminyear=1994&imaxyear=2020&itypes=Book%2CBook+chapter%2CConference+paper%2CJournal+article%2COther%2CPatent%2CPoster%2CReport%2CScholarly+edition%2CSoftware%2CThesis+dissertation%2CWorking+paper&_type=on&type=Book&type=Book+chapter&type=Conference+paper&type=Journal+article&type=Other&type=Patent&type=Poster&type=Report&type=Scholarly+edition&type=Software&type=Thesis+dissertation&type=Working+paper&minyear=1994&maxyear=2020&page=1&person=true axiomatization of ostrom - https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/2382570.2382575 Solving social dilemmas by reasoning about expectations - https://arxiv.org/abs/2105.03552 Pitt also does work on novelty search - https://arxiv.org/abs/2201.12896 Public interest technology, citizen assemblies, and performative governance - https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9527285 Soft laws and hard decisions - https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?tp=&arnumber=9640314 Sustainable development goal-sensitive design - https://www.ijimai.org/journal/sites/default/files/2021-02/ijimai_6_5_3.pdf Self-organising multi-agent systems - algorithmic foundations of cyber-anarcho-socialism - https://www.worldscientific.com/worldscibooks/10.1142/q0307#t=aboutBook Bayesian model of information cascades - https://arxiv.org/abs/2105.03166 Trust and other things - thinking about trust - https://www.cell.com/patterns/fulltext/S2666-3899(20)30044-1?_returnURL=https%3A%2F%2Flinkinghub.elsevier.com%2Fretrieve%2Fpii%2FS2666389920300441%3Fshowall%3Dtrue Collective intelligence for computer supported collective action - https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/bitstream/10044/1/32234/8/ATN-coacts.pdf Formal models of social processes: the pursuit of computational justice in self-organizing multi-agent systems - https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/6676519 miguel fuentes: https://sites.google.com/site/miguelfuentessite/work complex systems modeling for public policy - https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11581/1/150727_livro_modeling_complex_systems_public_policies.pdf social dynamics of paradigm shifts - https://repositorio.udd.cl/bitstream/handle/11447/223/The%20Underlying%20social.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y social crises: signatures of complexity in fast-growing economy - https://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/complexity/2018/9343451.pdf social crises - network model approach - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0378437118303510 digital outburst: expression of a social crisis through online social networks - https://www.hindawi.com/journals/complexity/2022/8980913/ public policy modeling and applications 2021 https://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/complexity/2022/9764151.pdf

Seshat database single dimension of social complexity - https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1708800115 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abn3517 rise of the war machines: charting evolution of military tech - https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0258161 consequences of crisis - https://seshatdatabank.info/seshat-projects/crisis-and-recovery-database/consequences-of-crisis/


center for strategic and international studies - https://www.csis.org/ Choking chinas access to AI - https://www.csis.org/analysis/choking-chinas-access-future-ai gregory allen US export controls and china -https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11627 chip exports to russia plunged - https://www.reuters.com/technology/chip-exports-russia-plunged-by-90-after-curbs-us-official-2022-06-29/

James Scott - seeing like a state and legibility

Nate Hagens Reality Blind (particularly energy and monetary theory sections)

Harris, Cultural Materialism

Bratton, The Stack

Habermas, Legitimation Crisis

Wallerstein, World Systems Analysis

West, Scale

Capra & Luisi, The Systems View of Life

Dona Meadows et al. Limits to Growth

Fuller, Critical Path

Deudney, Bounding Power

Turchin, the Ages of Discord

Tainter, Collapse of Complex Societies

Beaudrillard, Simulacra

Schneier, Liars and Outliers

Rothstein, Social Traps and The Problem of Trust (particularly intro)

Frans P.B. Osinga, Science, Strategy and War: The Strategic Theory of John Boyd

Slate Star Codex, “Meditations on Moloch” Also see Nintil’s response “Slaying Alexander’s Moloch”

“International Control of Powerful Technology: Lessons from the Baruch Plan for Nuclear Weapons” - ​​https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/International-Control-of-Powerful-Technology-Lessons-from-the-Baruch-Plan-Zaidi-Dafoe-2021.pdf

AI alignment and the Principal Agent Problem – https://arxiv.org/pdf/1804.04268.pdf

Paul Stern - Design Principles for Global Commons

The Cartography of Global Catastrophic Governance : ​​https://globalchallenges.org/the-cartography-of-global-catastrophic-governance/



Citations from social traps piece


[1] The term social trap is often traced to John Platt’s, “Social Traps” in American Psychology: https://psycnet.apa.org/doiLanding?doi=10.1037%2Fh0035723


[3] For example, see Robert Costanza’s “Review Essay: The Nuclear Arms Race and the Theory of Social Traps.” Journal Of Peace Research, Vol. 21, No. 1, 1985 and his “Social Traps and Environmental Policy.” BioScience, Vo. 37. No. 6 (Jun., 1987). p 407-412;


[4] For the concept of a wicked problem, see for example, Rittel, H.W.J., Webber, M.M. “Dilemmas in a general theory of planning.” Policy Sci 4, 155–169 (1973). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01405730 For a discussion of catastrophic risks, see Global Catastrophic Risks edited by Nick Bostrom and Milan M. Cirkovic’s. For the novelty of 21st century traps, see Paul Stern’s “Design principles for global commons: natural resources and emerging technologies.” International Journal of the Commons. Vol. 5, No. 2 (August 2011). Pp 213-232 Also see Eugen Skolnikoff’s international governance in a technological age [9] Robert Wright’s Nonzero, Deudney Bounding Power


The foresight institute’s “Gaming the Future: technologies for intelligent voluntary cooperation


Hayek’s “Use of Knowledge in Society” - summary ( http://www.coordinationproblem.org/2016/05/hayeks-the-use-of-knowledge-in-society-a-summary.html Lastly, see the seminal text by Mancur Olson The Logic of Collective Action. Harvard University Press, 1965, and its revisittation by Todd Sandler, “Collective Action fifty years later.” Public Choice (2015) 164: 195-216. https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11127-015-0252-0.pdf [16] See, Robert Jervis’ “Realism, Game Theory, and Cooperation.” World Politics. Vol. 40, No. 3 (Apr., 1988), pp. 317-349. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2010216 John Von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern’s Theory of Games and Economic Behavior was arguably the seminal text on the topic. [19] For an overview of variations on the prisoners’ dilemma, see Kuhn, Steven, "Prisoner’s Dilemma", The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (Winter 2019 Edition), Edward N. Zalta (ed.), https://plato.stanford.edu/archives/win2019/entries/prisoner-dilemma/. For game theory applied to the study of cooperation, see Robert Axelrod’s seminal, The Evolution of Cooperation, New York: Basic Books ,1984. And Jonathan Bendor and Piotr Swistak, “The Evolutionary Stability of Cooperation,” American Political Science Review, 91 (2): 290–307 1997. Note, however, that the results of the prisoners’ dilemma are not necessarily empirically the case; see Menusch Khadjavi, Andreas Lange,"Prisoners and their dilemma." Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Volume 92,2013, Pages 163-175, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2013.05.015.


[24] Citation from Trinley on nuclear war not leading to total extinction [ZS]


[27] See Garret Hardin’s original “The Tragedy of the Commons.”Science, vol. 162, no. 3859, 1968, pp. 1243–48. JSTOR, http://www.jstor.org/stable/1724745. Accessed 15 Sep. 2022. Also see Dietz, T., Ostrom, E., & Stern, P. C. (2003). The Struggle to Govern the Commons. Science, 302(5652), 1907–1912. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1091015


[29] See Ramsay MacMullen’s Corruption and the Decline of Rome. Yale University Press, 1988. [30] Robert Wright, Nonzero. Vintage, 2001. [31] The Logic of Political Survival [36] Autonomous technics [38] See Eugene Skolnikoff, “International Governance in a Technological Age.” in Science, Technology and Global Governance. Routledge, 2013.


[43] https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18488548/ [44] https://www.climaterealityproject.org/blog/how-feedback-loops-are-making-climate-crisis-worse 

Mads Qvist Frederiksen, “4 ways climate change is opening the Arctic up for business,” World Economic Forum, September 27, 2019, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/09/4-ways-climate-change-is-opening-the-arctic-up-to-business/ https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/p/russias-long-term-bet-on-the-arctic

[50] See Louis Henkin’s infamous quote in How Nations Behave. Columbia University Press, 1979: "Almost all nations observe almost all principles of international law and almost all of their obligations almost all of the time." For an overview of international law see David Bederman and Chimène Keitner’s International Law Frameworks. Foundation Press, 2016. [53] https://www.axios.com/2021/05/11/satellite-data-environmental-transparency


[55] See David Rozas, Antonio Tenorio-Fornès, and Samer Hassan. “Analysis of the Potentials of Blockhain for the Governance of Global Digital Commons.” Frontiers in Blockhain, 28 April 2021. https://doi.org/10.3389/fbloc.2021.577680


Innovation, dual use and security - edited by tucker


GPT-4 System Card OpenAI March 15, 2023

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