Escalation Trap

= much discussed during the attack on Iran in March 2026

Description

Robert Pape:

"The escalation trap is not simply that wars get bigger.

It is that efforts to control a conflict can make it harder to control.

Step 1: Limited force to achieve a defined objective.

Step 2: The opponent adapts through horizontal escalation—expanding the battlefield and raising costs.

Step 3: Each move to regain control creates pressure for further escalation.

The result is not stability.

It is a widening conflict with more actors, more geography, and higher stakes.

That is the trap."

(https://escalationtrap.substack.com/p/what-the-escalation-trap-actually)