Daniel Smihula's Long Wave Theory

Description

From the Wikipedia:

""A specific modification of the theory of Kondratieff cycles was developed by Daniel Šmihula. Šmihula identified six long-waves within modern society and the capitalist economy, each of which was initiated by a specific technological revolution:[

1. Wave of the Financial-agricultural revolution (1600–1780)

2. Wave of the Industrial revolution (1780–1880)

3. Wave of the Technical revolution (1880–1940)

4. Wave of the Scientific-technical revolution (1940–1985)

5. Wave of the Information and telecommunications revolution (1985–2015)

6. Hypothetical wave of the post-informational technological revolution (Internet of things/renewable energy transition?) (2015–2035?)

Unlike Kondratieff and Schumpeter, Šmihula believed that each new cycle is shorter than its predecessor. His main stress is put on technological progress and new technologies as decisive factors of any long-time economic development. Each of these waves has its innovation phase which is described as a technological revolution and an application phase in which the number of revolutionary innovations falls and attention focuses on exploiting and extending existing innovations. As soon as an innovation or a series of innovations becomes available, it becomes more efficient to invest in its adoption, extension and use than in creating new innovations. Each wave of technological innovations can be characterized by the area in which the most revolutionary changes took place ("leading sectors")."

(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kondratiev_wave#Modern_modifications_of_Kondratiev_theory)