Collapse Bias

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Robert Conan Ryan:

"I agree with Middleton (see: Understanding Collapse more so than the critics.

First of all, the claims that Detroit collapsed are not true.

Detroit's suburbs are among the largest and richest in the nation. Over four million people live within 25 miles of Detroit city limits and are thriving. Detroit industry continues to be a top 4 industry cluster. Detroit culture continues to have an outsized influence on America with its entertainment industry about #4 in the country.

So what is this all about ? Collapse Bias.

Collapse bias is the assumption that we have all the necessary variables to analyze the system dynamics.

Stopping at the city limits of Detroit is not what a qualified person would do. It is what you do of you want to tell a biased political story. The critic is totally confused as to what a collapse is.

In fact, people continue to move to the greater Detroit area in search of jobs and opportunities.

What " collapsed" was not the city of Detroit but the manufacturing neighborhoods on the black side of town (about one third of Detroit proper but less than ten percent of the greater Detroit area ) , and the counterforce was the rise of Asian car manufacturers abroad with great jobs. It was a Displacement more than a collapse. As one system falls another rises elsewhere.

What happened, white flight, was not a Collapse but a temporary cultural race war. The city of Detroit is already in recovery. It never disappeared and it's population never declined or faced economic decline but grew dramatically outside of city limits.

Similarly; most so called collapses are better termed recessions, where cities or civilizations receded temporarily to recover from shock events.

It's really that Simple: Collapse is a loaded term and it doesn't really reflect history accurately. Recessions are usually displacement events ---- common... true collapses are rare (crises with no recession recovery and with no displacement effects)."