Three Horizons for the Patterning of Hope
* Book: Three Horizons: The Patterning of Hope. By Bill Sharpe
URL = http://www.internationalfuturesforum.com/p/three-horizons-the-patterning-of-hope
Description
"A practical framework for thinking about the future… and an exploration of 'future consciousness' and how to develop it.
Three Horizons is a simple and intuitive framework for thinking about the future. The framework explains how people often manage to disagree so violently about their visions of the future and how to achieve them - and it offers a practical way to begin constructive conversations about the future at home, in organisations and in society at large.
The three horizons are about much, much more than simply stretching our thinking to embrace the short, medium and long term. They offer a co-ordinated way of managing innovation, a way of creating transformational change that has a chance of succeeding, a way of dealing with uncertainty and a way of seeing the future in the present.
In this beautifully illustrated book, Bill Sharpe introduces the Three Horizons framework as a prompt for developing a ‘future consciousness’ – a rich and multi-faceted awareness of the future potential of the present moment – and explores how to put that awareness to work to create the futures we aspire to.
The book first outlines the Three Horizons framework and the practices it supports, including case studies of its effective application in rural community development, education, healthcare and elsewhere.
In the final section, Sharpe outlines the potential of future consciousness as a shared cultural practice, exploring his intuition that “we have within us a far deeper capacity for shared life than we are using, and that we are suffering from an attempt to know our way into the future instead of live our way”." (http://www.internationalfuturesforum.com/p/three-horizons-the-patterning-of-hope)
Summary
David Bent:
"At it’s core, Three Horizons uses, well, three horizons as a simple framing device:
The first horizon describes the current way of doing things, and the way we can expect it to change if we all keep behaving in the ways we are used to. H1 systems are what we all depend on to get things done in the world.
The third horizon is the future system. It is those new ways of living and working that will fit better with the emerging need and opportunity. H3 change is transformative, bringing a new pattern into existence that is beyond the reach of the H1 system.
The second horizon is the transition and transformation zone of emerging innovations that are responding to the shortcomings of the first horizon and anticipating the possibilities of the third horizon.
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When it comes to acting for deliberate change, the book argues that it is “natural, in almost any situation where people are working on some complex issue, to gently bring out the three ‘voices’ of the horizons: the managerial voice that is concerned with the first horizon responsibility for keeping things going; the entrepreneurial voice of the second horizon that is eager to get on and try new things (some of which won’t work); and the aspiration and vision of the third horizon voice that holds out for commitment to a better way and the opportunity that can be imagined in the mind’s eye.”
The steps to do that are:
- Examining present concerns. A three horizon conversation begins by bringing the issue of concern into view and describing the ways in which the current way of doing things is seen to be losing its fit with emerging conditions.
- Exploring future aspirations. This involves examining the third horizon, where visions, aspirations, and possibilities for the reality that will emerge over time are explored as a replacement of the first horizon.
- Exploring inspirational practice in the present. The second step generally merges with the third step, which is to identify “pockets of the future in the present,” which are concrete examples of where new ways of doing things are visible at the margins of the mainstream first horizon systems.
- Innovations in play. This step considers the second horizon, which is viewed as the realm of transition between the first and third horizons, and innovations are identified that can be seen to be going on in response to the failings of the first horizon and the possibilities of the third.
- Essential features to maintain. The final step draws attention to those aspects of the old system that will persist into the future within the context of the new dominant system. These are often examined as the key or desirable elements that need to be retained.
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The book develops the relationship between these three concepts of horizons, transformation and future consciousness around the following five propositions:
- Future consciousness can only be fully developed as a universal shared practice in which every person is a unique source of transformative insight and human potential.Future consciousness is an awareness of the future potential of the present moment.
- Transformative change is that change which requires a re-patterning of our collective lives rather than an extension of the current pattern.
- Transformative innovation can be understood as working with three different qualities of the future in the present that we characterise as the three horizons of future consciousness.
- Three Horizons provides a notation and framework for the collective practice of future consciousness for transformative innovation in a simple way – it brings all the perspectives and voices into the room with the potential for constructive dialogue.”