Understanding and Predicting Societal Collapse

* Article/Chapter: Theories and Models: Understanding and Predicting Societal Collapse. by Sabin Roman. In: The Era of Global Risk: An Introduction to Existential Risk Studies. Edited by SJ Beard, Martin Rees, Catherine Richards, and Clarissa Rios Rojas. CSER,

URL = https://books.openbookpublishers.com/10.11647/obp.0336.pdf

Description

"The second chapter, ‘Theories and Models: Understanding and Predicting Societal Collapse’ by Sabin Roman, looks at what those who study global risks can learn from efforts to understand and model the process of societal and ecological collapse, which is a significant global risk in itself and also an example of the kind of extreme, non-linear, and potentially dangerous transition that is associated with extreme global risks more generally. Surveying the extensive and interdisciplinary literature on this subject, in some cases extending back several centuries, the chapter illustrates the ways in which many qualitative and quantitative modelling approaches can be applied to shed insight on the causes and nature of such collapses. Some of these approaches are primarily concerned with the exogenous causes of collapse, such as conflict or environmental catastrophes. However, other approaches view collapse as endogenous to societies themselves, originating in economic inequality or shifting societal dynamics, and it is argued that even in the presence of external causes we cannot fully understand collapse unless we take account of these endogenous effects that ultimately make societies vulnerable in the first place. Perhaps most promisingly, the chapter indicates how we can create constructive new approaches based around modelling a variety of feedback loops between different elements, and how these can be adapted to generate and test new hypotheses about social and ecological collapse (either past or future)."

(https://books.openbookpublishers.com/10.11647/obp.0336.pdf)