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| '''Project by Robert Searle''' | | The following is a brief paper which also appears in a respected academic book edited by Dr Debesh Bhowmik. It is entitled ''An Approach Towards Central Bank Digital Currency'' published by Kunal Books, New Delhi, 2022. In Chapter4 the material below is presented. Also, it should be mentioned that a paper published in 2016 entitled ''Orthodox Monetary Theory: A Critique From Post-Keynesianism and Transfinancial Economics'' by Dante A. Urbina appears in a book called ''International Monetary System. Past, Present, and Future'' Regal Publishing, India. RS |
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| | == FUTURISTIC ECONOMICS FOR THE 21ST CENTURY? == |
| | by [[Robert Searle]] |
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| | === Abstract === |
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| | ''The following is in brief concerned with the very basics of an emerging paradigm known as Transfinancial Economics or TFE. It can be seen as a form of Keynesian Economics. Basic to it is the huge relevance of the use of computers and information technology in finance. This would act as a means of notably influencing the economy towards a more ethical, and greener environmentally friendly economy as never before. Many will regard TFE as being similar to Modern Monetary Theory or MMT which has gained a large amount of publicity in recent years. However, the latter is regarded as being a precursor and possible stopgap to TFE which is far more advanced. At the time of writing what follows is still “work in progress”. Of course, it raises many questions which may be answered in the near future such as TFE’s connection with exchange rates and of course the possible emergence of Central Bank Digital Currencies, or CBDCs.'' |
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| '''Tranfinancial Economics in a Nutshell'''
| | Keywords: Transfinancial Economics, Modern Monetary Theory, Inflation Taxation, Digital Price Controls, Climate Change |
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| | JEL Classification Codes: E42,F33,F65,G00,O3,Q54 |
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| | === 1. Nationwide Electronic/Digital Price Controls === |
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| | Essentially, Transfinancial Economics or TFE believes notably that new unearned repayable and non-repayable money can be digitally created ex nihilo and phased into the economy safely without leading to uncontrolled levels of inflation or indeed hyperinflation. This is simply done with the aid of highly flexible electronic digital price controls used for nearly every kind of financial transaction in real time. Thus, if there is a concern about some rise in the prices of certain goods and services these could be digitally capped temporarily. This would be an instantaneous process and could occur automatically in any part of the economy. This could be undertaken with the help of supercomputers or more likely by quantum computers (Clegg, 2021). |
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| | Of course, such digital price controls are not the ideal way of doing things but they are better than nothing. Some form of compensation could be created for retailers if desired. However, it must be stressed here that with the right algorithms the market price is allowed to change naturally as much as possible. Whether we like it or not most of the money exists as digital data in a bank. It is used in any number of transaction but “real” money like cash and coin can still be used (unmonitored or possibly monitored in some way) but it would make up only a tiny fraction of the overall economy, and hence, would have near zero significance in our understanding of the whole economy. This is an important but basic point to understand. |
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| | Also, in connection notably with vital climate change projects a legally binding agreement should ideally be undertaken to use certain algorithms to track funding. They could detect and instantly ” freeze” in real-time any money that may be involved in fraud. |
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| | === 2. Big Data and Real-Time Economics/The Uncloaking of the “Invisible Hand”. === |
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| | As one might well realize it would be possible to understand the entire economy in real-time (or near real-time). This colossal accounting data would be created 24/7 with virtually every transaction notably using barcodes, or something similar. The central Inflation Authority would be programmed to instantly check the inflation status of each product or service and if at all necessary instant temporary price capping may occur. Hence, a huge picture of the economy would be possible and could prove invaluable for future economists. Also, such incoming real-time economic indicators would be totally up to date and as such would have no long-time lags unlike conventional economic data. |
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| '''Transfinancial Economics, or TFE is a an advanced futuristic form of Deficit Spending, and believes that largely non-repayable new unearned money can be created electronically, and slowly phased into the economy itself. If sufficient amounts of it can be produced this should not lead to serious inflation, or even hyperinflation (ie. Primary TFE similar to Quantitative Easing, or QE or indeed Modern Monetary Theory, or MMT). However, if further new money was required then special temporary unconventional super-flexible electronic controls would probably be necessary. In TFE they could monitor, and control inflation, and yet, allow the Free Market Price to rise, and fall naturally as much as possible (ie. Advanced TFE). Such an arrangement could gradually phase out taxation and interest rates "altogether". These are in part the normal conventional methods to control inflation by helping to reduce money in circulation. But the super-flexible (price) controls mentioned are far more advanced, and beneficial. If TFE is ultimately possible it would be essentially targeted at many high ethical/social projects, and a highly comprehensive New Green Deal in which there would be a period of massive growth. The only limits to all this ofcourse would not be money but limited natural, and human resources. But in some future decade of such developments this could lead to a situation in which excess money would exist in the economy. This could be dealt with by notably saving it until a time may, or may not come when it can be more be fully invested. Ofcourse it could be taxed or deleted out of existence but this should be avoided.'''
| | In spite of this though such information cannot fully rule out uncertainty in the economy. Yet, the data emerging instantaneously should at least give us a far better idea of how it is “working” and this could be important for decision-making. AI or Artificial Intelligence could also play a vital role in all this. Apart from identified transaction data there are what are referred to as Faster Indicators. These use various types of economic activity to be factored in to give us an even wider understanding of the economy in real time (Salina, 2020; Haldane, 2018). |
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| | It must be made clear that what we have been saying so far is a capitalist economy. TFE though can also be adapted into a socialist or communist type of economy because it can notably make central planning a lot easier and more likely to succeed unlike conventional economics. Indeed, Economic Cybernetics is an example of this kind of approach, and it is also possible in some future time to have an economy which is “completely” automated and where money is no longer necessary (Cockshott & Cottrell, 1993). |
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| '''One day TFE may be recognized as a highly important approach in economics. The reason being is that it would (among other things) be able to give us a highly accurate understanding of the economy itself in Real-Time (or near Real-Time). This ofcourse does not exist in present day economics. Also, a very credible "inventory" of the amount of scarce resources used in the production of goods, and services could be created...again in Real-Time ideally.'''
| | The concepts of TFE are like those proposed by Clifford Douglas and his Social Credit Movement but they have the added dimension of using Big Data and instant digital price capping which did not exist in his time. If he were around today, he would have been impressed by the use of computers, smart phones, plastic cards, et al in developing a futuristic economy. Modern Monetary Theory or MMT is to some extent similar. It should be added too that the term “Social Credit” has nothing to do with the dystopian system of the same name in China (Heydorn, 2014). |
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| | Finally in this section of this brief paper it should be said that in time the financial industry will hopefully be powered more and more by sustainable (non-fossil fuel) electricity, and it should be said too that it is possible |
| | to have a high degree of commercial confidentiality in connection with the digital transaction data instantaneously going to the Inflation Authority 24/7 for specific businesses of one kind, or another. |
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| '''It must be made clear that TFE is not fantasy economics as our financial world is essentially a vast computing system made up of a vast number of networks. IT, or Information Technology has become such that something very much like TFE will inevitably emerge.'''
| | === 3. Maintaining the Value of Money in Real-Time. === |
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| '''It must be stated in no uncertain terms that TFE would work within the context of capitalism but one which is more ethical, and environmentally friendly. But it can also be adapted to socialist type system as well.It should be noted though that there will always be those who will totally misrepresent it as something akin to full-blooded communism especially Americans. However, TFE can also have some degree of nationalization of industry if required as in the case of many genuine democratic European countries.'''
| | TFE would be able to maintain the value of money in real-time at the point of sale (POS). For example, person T buys product A in a shop and its retail price is instantly checked for its inflation status. It is found to be above the inflation rate by 50p and the customer though has already spent this amount but is compensated for it digitally by having it recreated into his or her account. This is called Above Inflation Adjustment. In another instance, person T buys product C which is 30p below the inflation rate and it is the retailer who gets the extra 30p by a digital recreation of it in her or her account. This is called Below Inflation Adjustment. (McDermott,2004). |
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| | === 4. Dynamic Pricing in Real-Time === |
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| '''PS. There is serious interest in the idea of "free" money especially in connection with the Universal Basic Income. The originator of this presentation on TFE is in favour of it. It could act as an essential stopgap for the phasing in of Transfinancial Economics in its most advanced form.'''
| | Fintech is short for Financial Technology. It is a critical part of the TFE paradigm without which it cannot exist. A good example of such financial technology which exists now is Dynamic Pricing. Essentially, it can automatically deal with variable pricing due to changes in supply and demand. It has been successfully utilised in areas such as transportation, hospitality, professional sports, retail, and the like. Even Amazon uses it along with many other companies (Sharda, 2018). All this adds greater credibility to the idea of developing a genuine real-time economy on a national and ultimately international scale. Of course, it has to be realized and remembered that real-time data is used by financial markets around the world in which investors can keep an eye on the value of their shares, or securities. Traders can use such information to make “bets” on the rise and fall of prices of the various companies such as Apple, Google, Unilever, and many other lesser-known ones. |
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| | === 5. TFE and the Climate Change Emergency === |
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| | At present the greatest challenge facing humanity is the climate change emergency. Tragically, it seems highly likely that it will become irreversible (if it is not already). As such governments, Bigtech companies, and smaller businesses must try if possible to make serious efforts to create credible resilient adaption and mitigation projects on a scale never before known in human history. All this ultimately costs money. Hence, TFE. With this emerging paradigm it would be possible to create new money to fund credible and “feasible” green projects. Of course, investors could be invited to invest venture capital into such investments which could prove lucrative. Such projects may seem in some cases more like “science fiction” but now is the time to think outside the box otherwise we could see the global demise of the human race. It is simple as that. Climate change emergency is not just a physical challenge it is also a spiritual one of the highest order. |
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| | Here are a few examples of potential green projects which need to be undertaken (though some of them are in the making or have already been done but not on a scale ultimately necessary for human survival) and they include more solar and wind and solar power facilities; more factory plants and mechanical trees to suck carbon emissions out of the atmosphere; more electric cars; more advances in Nanotechnology in which atomic structures could create new materials in a world of limited resources; possible underground cities and even underground agriculture may be a required to some extent; natural solutions; sun dimming which may be necessary but a controversial move; more flood defences; more recycling centres and so on. At the same time with all this going on the likes of entrepreneurs such as Bezos and Musk can “wisely” continue with the possible colonisation of the moon and even mars (Gates, 2002; Carney, 2021). |
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| | === 6. The Basic Differences between Transfinancial Economics and Modern Monetary Theory === |
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| Transfinancial Economics is an evolving project nearing basic completion. It should be said that there has been a degree of interest in it from a number of people with economic backgrounds such as Warren Mosler, Andy Dennis, Stephen Monrad, Trond Andresen (cybernetics expert), Prem Sikka, Steve Keen, Andy Haldane (of BoE, or the Bank of England) and the futurist, and autodidact Hazel Henderson. In April 2010, TFE was also a subject discussed at a major scientific conference (the ICEME, or International Conference of Engineering, and Meta-Engineering, Florida, USA). | | Modern Monetary Theory is at the time of writing been in the public spotlight for several years and has attracted much public attention. It is similar to Transfinancial Economics or TFE. MMT claims that the government is the sole issuer of the national currency and can fund public expenditure and only raises taxation, if necessary, as a means of controlling inflation at some future date. In this respect, TFE is in agreement. Infact, something like MMT already exists. It is called Deficit Spending. This is when governments need more money and can borrow it and (or) create new amounts of it (Kelton, 2020). This of course works but only to a limited extent. Now, the key differences are: |
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| | a) TFE uses digital price controls to monitor and if necessary, cap the market price. These would cover the entire economy and not just tiny sections of it. MMT though would use taxation to control inflation instead but may ultimately use price controls. |
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| In 2016 a paper was published entitled ''Orthodox Monetary Theory: A Critique from Post Keynesianism and Transfinancial Economics'' by the economist, Dante A Urbina. It formed part of a respected academic publication called ''International Monetary System, Past, Present and Future'' edited by Dr Debesh Bhowmik. It should be said here that a paper may also be published soon by the originator of TFE itself. Furthermore, one paper was to be published some time ago, but after receiving the copyright clearance form a dispute arose with the editor in connection with it, and it was withdrawn by the author.
| | b) Unlike MMT TFE has a very advanced understanding of the economy via Big Data in real-time whilst the former would probably largely rely on old outdated understanding of economics. |
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| | c) As MMT continues to create new money into the economy a point may be reached that too much money will circulate and could lead to not just gradual rises in inflation but to a sudden mass catastrophic state of hyperinflation. With TFE such problems are dealt with directly by digital controls that would instantaneously control the situation at a touch of a button or indeed happen automatically. |
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| Anyway, it is important to say that TFE itself regards the financial system as a huge global IT system, and recognizes the reality that virtually all money exists as electronic,or digital data transmitted from one bank account to another. This means that the free flow of capital can be tracked, and controlled if necessary.
| | d) Since TFE would have a far more accurate comprehension of the economy in real-time it can assess the potential inflation tax liability (possibly as an online sales tax) months or years ahead. On the other hand, MMT could find itself in a situation in which the overall inflation tax liability would be too heavy, and could even cause social unrest. Incidentally, it should be added that a tax rebate is possible in which the inflation taxation paid could be digitally recreated in full, or in part at a future date. |
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| | e) Unlike MMT TFE can adjust the value of money if necessary and instantaneously when products and services are bought in real-time at the point of sale (POS). This of course is when the inflation status is checked by the Inflation Authority. Thus, the purchasing power of money is largely or wholly maintained. This was explained in brief early on using two examples. |
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| Essentially, TFE can be regarded as a form of Cybernetic Economics. Its scope, and scale is colossal....colossal enough to help deal with a whole range of multidimensional problems facing humanity, be it social, economic, or political.
| | f) In MMT the government is seen as the key issuer of currency as something which is non- repayable. However, special private banks could be had in which such grants or (non-governmental) “subsides” could be created digitally. |
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| It should be said that TFE is form of non-mainstream economics, or Heterodox Economics. It is not a science in the strict sense of the word. Yet,it has aspects which may appear "scientific". '''Ofcourse, it also takes into account uncertainty in the economy, and indeed, the irrationality of the money markets. It has special super-flexible electronic controls that can instantly adapt to such unexpected economic problems.'''
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| As one may gather, the "full" development of TFE will require the help of "open minded" experts notably in the fields of Economics, Computer Science, Politics, and indeed, the Law (both National, and International). Indeed, there may well be important global/political implications to consider notably international trading laws especially in connection with WTO, or the World Trade Organisation. Moreover, there could be implications for the EU State Rules, and certain other rules of such other influential organisations as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) to do with amounts of money given to the Developing World by certain countries in the Developed World.
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| ''Please note that this presentation of TFE has been going through a whole series of changes, and where, and when necessary may be subject to further additions, and possible corrections. It is still a "work in progress" project. Also, the Kheper version of TFE which appears at times on search engines is out-of-date, and is not as authorative as the presentation here.''
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| It should be clearly stressed here that TFE fully recognizes the vital importance of good planning by businesses, governments, and NGOs in connection with many commercial, and "charitable" projects. Without that, money can be so easily wasted. Hence, excellent planning is of ''equal importance'' to excellent funding. One cannot have one without the other. Thus, the two factors of good planning, and good funding are critical for success. The former can be seen as the "Brains" of a project, and the latter as the great Enabler.
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| IMPORTANT. It should be said too that references are made to supercomputers to possibly monitor, and control the economy within a capitalist system. However, quantum computers could do an infinitely better job than supercomputers if they are properly developed.
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| Also, please note that we do not waste any time, or space here with the usual conspiracies theories against banking, and bankers.
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| '''Towards Futuristic Economics'''
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| '''An Introduction to a Major Global Paradigm'''
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| The following may be helpful for new readers.
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| Essentially, TFE claims that new closely monitored non-repayable money, or Facilitation Finance could be created electronically by special transparent, and credible funding mechanisms, or Facilitation Banks (and/or by governments to some extent). This could notably fund in full, or in part high environmental, and high socio-economic projects of great ethical value. This would help to '''speed things up''' unlike repayable loans, but interest free ones could also be created electronically when necessary, and when a commercial operation becomes self-supporting. Incidently, funding using non-repayable money could be used to deal with projects that have little, or indeed, no commercial viability.
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| The aim of all this is also to give powerful financial incentives to businesses. They could profit with genuine projects, and more importantly help save the planet, and its people notably in connection with Climate Change, and "irreversible" Global Warming.
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| '''''Extra finance would not lead to serious inflation, or indeed, hyperinflation (eg. Zimbabwe, and ofcourse, Venuzuela) as the phasing in of newly created unearned money would be a gradual process, and the checks, and "controls" would be most effective in monitoring, and controlling inflation. This point is most notably true of Advanced Stage TFE explained a little later. Thus, there is no mad flooding of the real economy which ofcourse is absurd in extremis.'''''
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| Strictly speaking, there are two forms of TFE, one of which has just been mentioned above. Firstly, Primary Stage TFE which is when the amount of new money created is limited to "sufficient" amounts. It notably uses Economic Indicators (eg. GDP, and Inflation Indexes)to help decide how much could be created, and used directly into the Real Economy. Also, the conventional method of raising taxation, and interest rates could be utilized to help decrease the money supply, and hence, reduce any inflationary pressures.
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| Also, it is important to note that Primary Stage TFE could be skipped altogether in favour of Advanced Stage TFE. This could be regarded as genuine Transfinancial Economics as the latter would involve highly credible programming using relevant algorithms, and supercomputers, and their ilke.
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| In contrast to Primary Stage TFE, Advanced Stage TFE itself can create and phase in far greater amounts of new financial capital for projects mentioned in the first paragraph of this section. This should become clear shortly.
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| Among other things, Advanced Stage TFE can gain a "near perfect" knowledge of the entire economy of the country. Such Big Data as it is called would come about via full Electronic Transaction Monitoring(or ETM)and could be collected 24/7 in Real-Time. This is done via the ID codes, and barcodes of most products, and services at the electronic Point of Sale (EPOS), or later transactions with banks.
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| Due to comprehensive algorithmic programming, the Free Market Price comparisons can be made in Real-Time, and inflationary pressures can be detected (ie. data mining). This transaction data could be vital to bring about a genuine wholesale sea change towards an environmentally more comprehensive sustainable, and socially ethical economy, as more, and more new electronically monitored non-repayable money could be gradually phased in, and created '''with real confidence''', and without any serious inflation in Advanced Stage TFE.
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| As we would have a highly accurate understanding of the real economy inflation risks could possibly be more accurately assessed continually via "instant" continuous computer simulations of the economy itself. This is revolutionary when fully understood. ''However, it is worth repeating here that TFE would have to take into account uncertainty, and indeed, the irrationality of the money markets. As such economic forecasts would still be very difficult to do accurately. However, such predictions may be more accurate than conventional methods. ''
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| Another aspect of Advanced Stage TFE, and full ETM is taxation(and interest) itself could possibly be phased out. Moreover, fuller funding of many charitable NGOs would also become possible, and fundraising for them could ultimately be phased out altogether in many cases.
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| In Advanced Stage TFE there would be super-flexible direct electronic controls (similiar to temporary "price controls" but far more advanced)to ensure inflation, and currency devaluation can never get out of hand. This would involve an instantaneous intervention with little, or no time-lag. This is explained in more detail later on.
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| However, as far as the collection of income tax is concerned it would be allowed to continue for the time being via conventional means. It would not be undertaken by some form of "instant" electronic deduction(s)even though this is perfectly possible. Civil, and criminal fines (a kind of tax if such it could be called) would still exist ofcourse.
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| ''It is also important to point out that we are not discussing a full Soviet style top down command/control economy. The reason why is that the Free Market Price is largely determined by private businesses, and capitalism in an increasingly more ethical form (due to increasing powerful financial incentives notably created by non-repayable money, plus repayable money as loans if necessary)would still continue until there is "full" automation when money, and wage slavery would no longer exist, and hence, become largely, or wholly unnecessary. This could with the right education lead to the "natural" phasing out of the rich elites, and lead to a more advanced non-hierarchical society based on true cooperation rather than competition.''
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| ''During the above process, pressure groups, or NGOs would become increasingly more influential as they would gain over time greater, and greater access to mainly newly created funds from independent grant making bodies, and possible other sources. Thus, the process of socio-economic, and political reform should grow apace as never before in human history.''
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| Hopefully, a more advanced technological, and more moral human civilization will largely emerge based on improved Democracy, Universal Human Rights, and greater fairness. In other words, Global Justice. As can be seen TFE is concerned essentially with a system's change to achieve these lofty goals.
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| '''Present Day Economics'''
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| Mainstream Neo-Classical Economics has developed a somewhat appalling reputation as the dismal "science". Most of its work appears to be largely theoretical, and based on highly questionable statistics, and mathematical modelling. Its economic forecasts often, or not turn out to be wrong.
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| Moreover, there is still an obsession with the need for more, and more unsustainable growth even though the planet has finite resources. More startling though, is that there is little, or no real understanding of the importance of how money is created, and what it fully means in society, and the world.
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| Unfortunately, Neo-Classical Economics still has great influence over the economics profession. Essentially, it believes in the "Free Market" in which little, or virtually no regulation is needed. Thus, Capitalism then appears to do well by being largely unimpeded by red tape.
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| ''Such ideology received a battering with the Great Financial Crisis, or GFC (2008, and the following Global Recession) in which the entire world banking system practically collapsed, and was saved by massive bailouts. Ofcourse, the basic cause of the GFC was largely the overproduction of repayable loans due arguably to too much self-regulation. With TFE advanced computer technology would be able to get an accurate knowledge when such a "process" was beginning to get out of hand, and hence, curb the possibility of a serious economic collapse. This would also involve the likelihood of more advanced regulations.''
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| '''The Creation of Money'''
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| In TFE ofcourse, money is recognized as being largely digital, or electronic encrypted data which can be transmitted from one bank account to another at the touch of a button. Governments create it notably as paper, and coins. This makes up a near non-existent portion of the entire money supply itself, and is spent into the economy as something largely non-repayable. However, the rest of the money is created electronically out of thin air by mainly private banks via Credit Creation as repayable loans with interest charged on them. In other words, unlike what many people may think, they do not actually lend out existing money from their reserves. The amounts they can issue are supposed to be limited by a "set" fraction of existing money held. However, in most, if not in "all" cases this is not observed. Thus, banks can create any amount of new repayable money. In the light of all this, it is not surprising that certain banking reformers believe that banks should not be allowed to create more money than they actually have.But it is very hard to see how this can ever become a reality in the foreseeable future.
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| As can be seen the actual mechanics of money creation are subject to some controversy. But what does appear to be clear as day is the seeming fact that private banks can create money ex nihilo which gives them great power. But this money is something which is repayable(ie. a loan) as opposed to being something non-repayable. Also, there are ofcourse a number of NGOs such as Positive Money, and the American Monetary Institute which are concerned with such issues.
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| A NOTE. In connection with the money creation by banks the actual principal, or the borrower's hard earned money (not created out of thin air electronically ofcourse) is apparently actually deleted leaving the interest (ie. earned money) on a loan for the bankers. This raises interesting ethical, and philosophical questions on the nature of money which is beyond the scope of this presentation on TFE.
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| '''Brief look at some other "Unconventional" Monetary Initiatives'''
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| Anyhow, some radical monetary reformers believe (like the Muslims) that loans should be free of interest, and of "excessive" interest, or usury. Others like the idea of banks possibly being nationalized.
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| Certain monetary reformers believe in the development, and the usuage of free local currencies which strictly speaking are meant to be tax free, and interest free. These have obvious limitations, but they are easily set up, and are workable. However, new virtual cryptocurrencies, notably Bitcoin have a global reach. They are usually anonymous transactions, and have no Central Bank.
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| Another important initiative is the emergence of P2P lending companies that avoid mainstream banks. Zopa is one such example in which lenders, and borrowers are brought together. Crowdfunding is another, in which the internet notably is used to raise money directly from the people themselves for some business proposal, or charity.
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| To return to TFE. It can be regarded by many as being very similiar to Social Credit(Socred) started by C.H. Douglas. Modern Monetary Theory, or MMT (also called Neo-Chartalism )is also like TFE. Both notably believe in the responsible creation of mainly new non-repayable money, or what Douglas referred to as Debt-Free Money in the case of Social Credit.
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| ''It should be said too that MMT seems to be gaining some traction notably among the American progressives. It can be summed up in one sentence. Essentially, it believes that government should create new money to fund public expenditure, and taxation itself is only used as a means of controlling inflation. This is a good idea. One recommends it as a good start in the development towards a more Non-Debt Based Economic System. On a downside note, the degree of inflation taxation within the MMT concept could possibly become increasingly greater over time, and hence, lead a grave social, economic, and political situation... when the tax debt could become "too heavy". However, the big advantage of MMT has over TFE in its Advanced Stage is that it would require time to set up, but the amount of new money it could create, and safely phase in would ultimately be far greater than MMT. The reason for this is that it would be possible to gradually increase the levels of growth and potential inflation in such a way as to retain the value of the currency (This is explained later in the text). Such a process can only be successfully achievable if the economy can be monitored, and controlled in Real-Time, or near Real-Time. Furthermore, taxation itself could be phased out altogether as a means of controlling inflation, and only used in an emergency situation.''
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| '''A New Vision and Understanding of Money'''
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| Policy makers, and technocrats in Advanced Stage TFE are given ''full confidence'' that newly created money could be "safely" created.Instead of conventional "controls" of raising taxation, and interest rates to try, and control inflation the TFE ones would be electronic, and ideally instantaneous. As a result, taxation, and interest rates could possibly be phased out altogether.
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| Some people would say that the notion of creating new non-repayable money is funny money. But as we have seen here in connection with banks they themselves create it ex nihilo as something repayable(ie as loans).
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| Moreover, in TFE itself we are not discussing easy money because controls on its electronic issuance would be legally credible, and transparent.
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| For some, the notion that new money could be created at the push of a button is socially unacceptable. Yet, social, economic, and political injustice is also socially unacceptable especially if there is a lack of conventional earned funding available to back up NGOs, (green) businesses, and governments to deal with it.''This gives newly created money a new higher value, and ethical dimension as never before.''
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| '''The Problem with Redistribution'''
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| It has been said that there may be more than enough money to change the world.The problem is gaining legal access to it especially where there is a genuine social,econommic, or environmental issue at stake.Apparently, most of the money of the world exists in financial trading, or "betting casinos" dealing with derivatives (eg. currency speculation). Indeed, the sum total of the capital involved may even be several times greater than the entire Gross Domestic Product(GDP)of the planet.
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| Some activist groups have suggested the implementation of the Financial Transaction Tax (FFT), or Robin Hood Tax to raise funds in the real productive economy. In TFE such an approach at "redistribution" in this context is ultimately seen as unnecessary, and frankly absurd when sufficient sums could be created at the press of a button. Incidently, it is interesting to point out that the Transaction Tax appears to be an instant electronic deduction in Real-Time.
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| ''However, redistribution of financial wealth using taxation is fine, and ethical as far as it goes. It is highly unlikely though that such capital will "ever" be fairly redistributed due to the present Capitalist System, and the Free Market Economy. Moreover though, the problems facing humanity such as food security, Climate Change/Global Warming, population growth, and the like are colossal. To try, and solve this via earned money alone through taxation, and business investment will probably become increasingly difficult. Hence, the need for TFE to speed up, and facilitate change notably using newly created non-repayable money, or indeed, repayable finance as an add on where necessary to earned capital. In other words, direct financial easing by special Facilitation Banks, and/or by governments if absolutely necessary.''
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| '''The Emergence of Facilitation Banks'''
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| If Primary, and later Advanced Stage TFE is undertaken the introduction of ethical Smart Banks, or rather Facilitation Banks, or FBs is an important start.They can be seen as "superbanks". They could become a part of the mainstream banking system but they would have a far tighter regulatory framework. Ofcourse, there are a few so-called "ethical" banks already such as Charity Bank, and Tridos.
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| Anyhow, FBs would have powers to electronically create closely monitored new non-repayable Debt-Free Money (ie. Facilitation Finance) as well as repayable interest free loans if necessary. The interest on loans does not have to come from the customer necessarily but could instead be electronically created by the Central Bank, or by some other independent authority. Something similiar could happen with the new non-repayable capital. In other words, an operating cost ideally, or more controversially, Grant Interest which could increase depending on the amount of new money created.
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| The basic aim, and purpose of such FBs is to create funds for projects which would be difficult if not "impossible" to finance by conventional means as indicated earlier on. Initially, their remit though is largely targetted at investing in full, or in part in large, or small human-scale concerns to do with renewable energy alternatives, enviromental projects as well as social/ethical "entrepreneurial" businesses, or indeed, non-profit "enterprises".
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| The decision making process on all this must be largely, if not wholly be free from any undue influence from governments, and corporations.It must notably be transparent, holistic and "objective" as possible with all options for consideration for some specific project, or projects that could be vital for the social, and environmental "health" of the planet. In the main this would require bona fide experts in their respective fields. It could involve genuinely transparent cooperation, and partnerships with governments, NGOs, and existing green businesses as well as Open Source consultations with the public.
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| Ofcourse, when ready, investors using their own earned money could put it in some commercial project in order to gain a return. Indeed, their assets could be financially protected by the FB should the economy of any country face any serious problems, and hence, could avoid capital flight where possible.
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| However, quite unlike existing mainstream commercial banks,(which would coexist with FBs) the financial dealings of FBs are continually, and fully tracked electronically to prevent fraud with specific algorithms for the job. Such a process could again be undertaken by a Central Bank, or by some other credible body which could also possibly ''impose instant fines, and/or indeed, an instant freeze on targeted accounts as part of a legally binding contract.''
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| Also, during tough business negotiations with companies, and notably corporations the FB would have access to "infinite" sums of money. This would hopefully ensure that only the very best lawyers, and business negotiators are always employed to ensure that contracts are genuinely enforceable, and hence, honoured.
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| Essentially, the amount of funding which FBs can create is dependent on the cost, and availability of present, and future planned resources, or products from suppliers. This means that the amount of goods needed to be manufactured for some project would need to be planned well in advance.
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| Ideally, if possible at all, checks on the relevant suppliers in the supply chain as to whether they have sufficient capacity to produce such resources could be undertaken. Capacity though could be increased if necessary by the FB. Ofcourse, it would be possible to have the relevant products (and services) on order to be electronically monitored whenever money is transmitted. In effect, we could have to some extent an Advanced Market Commitment in which a more "Protected" Economy would emerge within the present "Free Market" System.
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| With the aid of experts it is hoped that Facilitation Banks, and indeed, Facilitation Finance in the context of TFE will become a serious proposition. This innovative financial model would certainly be more advanced than such controversial global institutions as the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund, or IMF.
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| Indeed, FBs would not lead to "competition" with "normal" mainstream banks as the latter could possibly have equal shares in the FBs, or some other legal arrangement(s). Understandably, some NGOs may regard them with suspicion but hopefully this will be dispelled if everything goes to plan "successfully".
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| Some critics will probably point out that elected governments alone should have the power via an independent body to have Facilitation Finance created rather than mainly by companies such as the FBs (possibly existing mainly as private companies, or as indicated here be owned by the state in full, or in part). The reason for emphasis on the latter (unbracketted) approach is that it is hard to see that a country notably like the US would frown on the idea of greater government interventionism in the "Free Market" Economy.
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| | === Key References === |
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| Thus, something like FBs could be more acceptable, and their influence towards more environmentally, and ethically centred businesses would be more agreeable. Arguably, more regulations could do this to some extent, and this would be a more ethical approach rather than greater financial incentives (eg The European Union regulation for design of Energy Related Products Directive 2009/125/EC).
| | [1] Carney, Mark. (2021). Value (s), Building a Better World for All. William Collins. |
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| However, many companies including a certain corporations are taking the initiative as they realize for example that recycling, and reusing resources in the Free Market makes good business sense as the planet has finite resources. A good example of this is the promotion of the so-called Circular Economy. To some extent, this already exists as more, and more "rubbish" is being recycled rather than sent to landfill.
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| Another instance of the Free Market at work is Ethical Investment. People can decide for themselves in which shares, or securities they could invest in. Such investments should ideally go into companies with a good environmental/socially ethical track record.
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| All this, is very well, and good, but sufficient amounts of new non-repayable money (plus interest free loans ideally)could also be created to speed things up in a Free Market Economy. Ofcourse, to a very limited extent, a number of governments have been doing just that, but ofcourse using earned money from green taxes. A huge amount needs to be done though as there are many complex aspects to this subject.
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| '''Democratic Governments, and Finance'''
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| In TFE taxation could possibly be phased out over time. In other words, earned money from the people would be gradually reduced in terms of tax liability as new non-repayable money is ''slowly'' phased in.
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| At present though, if there are shortfalls in tax revenues, governments can issue bonds. These are IOUs mainly bought up by the rich, and super rich companies, and corporations in which money is lent to governments. When paid back by government the bonds also carry interest which act as profit for lenders in the private sector.
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| In Quantitative Easing or QE governments again create bonds (with the right legal arrangements), and these though are bought up by the Central Bank electronically creating new unearned money ex nihilo. This could be seen as a form of Primary TFE. ''Furthermore, it should be said that during the Great Financial Crisis the specific use of money created by the Central Bank to prop up banks, and certain other large businesses was severely restricted. In other words, the funding could not be used willy nilly and hence, essentially contained within the relevant commercial organisations. Thus, such a move did not lead to seriously inflation, or even, hyperinflation. Also, it should be noted that such a measure such as QE in TFE in its Advanced Stage would not ofcourse only be used in an emergency situation (ie The Great Financial Crisis)but could become the norm in the economy as inflation could be electronically tracked, and controlled (when necessary and "instantaneously") in Real-Time, or near Real-Time without serious devaluation of currency, or even serious inflation. This aspect will be explained later on.''
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| To return to bonds per se the trading of them is a huge global market. With TFE it could continue if necessary, or be gradually phased out (if desired). If the latter happened, investors could possibly receive compensation, or alternatively other kinds of financial instruments, or investments could be found. These could be far more lucrative. ''In other words, vested interests would not find TFE a threat, thus making global change quicker, and easier to achieve. This seems to be the most sensible, and practical way forward. Trying to do otherwise would probably be too slow, and "virtually impossible" to do. Many of the left will not like this but it may be necessary if not enough political pressure is applied to the financial elites. What is far more important is to turn TFE into reality as soon as is feasible which may take time.''
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| ''' The Electronic Profile of the Economy, and Big Data in Real-Time/Advanced Stage TFE'''
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| Most products, and services in the business world have codes for the ease of accounting. Small shops, and supermarkets often, or not have barcodes which are used at checkouts to electronically account for sales transactions of customers. This is known as the Electronic Point of Sales, or EPOS. This notably gives retailers an accurate understanding of the demand of barcoded products along with their identifications, or IDs.
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| Such a method known as Electronic Transaction Monitoring, or ETM could also be used to create an electronic profile of the entire economy in Real-Time (or near Real-Time if necessary). ''What we are also ofcourse talking about here is Big Data,and instant Data Mining. Morever, even so-called Deep Learning, and Artificial Intelligence could also possibly play a part. ''
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| Anyway, under new regulations, retailers would not only account for their sales, but would also at the same time transmit their information to a public, or semi-public, or private inflation authority (which could be a part of the banking system, or independent of it). With modifications in barcodes,such transaction data (largely identified but not always,and would allow for commercial confidentiality where necessary) would be able to build up a highly accurate electronic Global Domestic Product, or GDP of the entire economy on a daily basis(ie.24/7) essentially in near Real-Time, or rather in Real-Time par excellence.
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| The question now is this. Why is it vital to know the economy as far as possible in Real-Time? The answer is basically three-fold.
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| i) ''To electronically monitor, and track, and compare price changes of specific groupings of most products, and services to help check inflation status.''
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| If serious rises in prices occur they could be monitored, and targetted by direct electronic controls rather than always using indirect controls of taxation, and interest on loans which could be phased out over time. This process would involve advanced, and highly credible algorithmic programming, and the possible use of supercomputers of the inflation authority. A more "decentralized" version of this could also exist.
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| ii) ''To create a highly accurate electronic "inventory" of resources used to make up products, or goods.''
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| This will become increasingly vital as resource scarcity increases. Such data would be good for democratic government planners, and more importantly for private business planners who have a profit motive as their incentive. In other words, improved traceability. Indeed, something called the Blockchain (usually associated with Cryptocurrencies) exists to a somewhat limited extent which can electronically track the provenance of the materials used in the making of goods in a supply chain.
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| iii) ''To bring about a greater understanding of the dynamics of the economy itself.''
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| This may be very useful for future economists. With continuous computer simulations garnered directly in Real-Time (ideally) from ETM of the Real Economy itself it may be possible to "accurately" forecast the potential inflation impact involved in the creation of new unearned money (ie. Facilitation Finance) for certain vital projects. It could also ultimately give us direct data of the productive capacity of various "small" companies, and corporations as never before.
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| ''Indeed, the origins of potential business cycles of boom, and bust could be tracked, and resolved. This is a very important point. In other words, recessions, and depressions could become things of the past. This could notably involve a Quantitative Easing for the People, as well as a Quantitative Easing for Businesses.''
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| Anyway, Transfinancial Economics, or TFE itself is an IT Megaproject. Unfortunately, at the present time though management of such Projects can fail. However, there is no reason in the world why they cannot be achieved ''with total persistence'' in the future with greater, and greater insight gathered from the analysis of past experience. Thus, ETM on a national scale represents a big technical challenge, but it is one well worth undertaking as the social, economic, environmental, and political implications of it would be colossal.
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| Incidently, cash transactions, or something similiar could still exist, and be adapted to Advanced TFE in some manner, or other.
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| It should be said that such an "Electronic Economy" would be "fully" protected against Cyberattacks. Indeed, there would always be the funds to ensure that security is continually reviewed to the highest possible standards.
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| Finally for this section it must be added that the Data Mining involved would require a huge amount of electricity. One way of dealing with this is possibly to reduce the amount of "Mining" needed. However, solar power, and other alternative energies could be utilized to deal with this "problem" successfully. Nuclear power is obviously another possible option but a far less popular one.
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| '''Super Flexible Instantaneous Electronic Controls'''
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| With the continous electronic monitoring of the Free Market Prices of the transaction of most goods, and services the data which results is transmitted to the inflation authority where supercomputers could be programmed to notably check any inflationary problems.
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| ''However, economists would recognize the direct electronic controls mentioned above as being like "price controls," but a far more advanced version of them. The key feature of them is that in Advanced TFE they are super-flexible, and instantaneous. They are also notably super-sensitive to the changes in Real-Time to inflationary pressures in ways unimaginable to the old clumsy, and "rigid" price controls of the past.''
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| Ofcourse, their correct programming using algorithms is absolutely vital, and this could be based with likely modifications on existing formulas, and equations known in Econometrics. Naturally, such an arrangement could take into account many factors in Free Market Pricing such as the value added to a product, or service. It should also be said that a producer of goods, or services would have to register online by law to ensure that their offerings can be correctly identified at the point of transactions by special barcodes, or like means.
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| Such electronic, or digital transactions would occur in the main with smartphones, or indeed, by debit, or credit cards, or something similiar. These can transmit, and receive money electronically. Ofcourse, to a growing extent, this already happens in many parts of the world.
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| Anyhow, there are a number of things which the electronic controls (open to further modification, and development) could do, and they would naturally enough require specific algorithms to be programmed carefully, and properly :-
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| i) '''Above Inflation Adjustment'''
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| A Free Market Price of a product being bought at a checkout is found to be above the inflation rate. An example, should make it clear as to what happens. Lets say that the price of product X is instantly checked by the inflation authority using supercomputers at the Point of Sale. It is found that X is 2p above inflation. As a result, the 2p is instantly added to the customer's bank account electronically (ie. Inflation Interest). However, the retailer still retains the 2p on product X. The extra 2p for the customer is an adjustment, or instant subsidy created electronically with newly created money.
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| ''Ofcourse, an instant electronic inflation tax could be created to deduct the inflated value of money. This though is avoided unless it is absolutely necessary. TFE aims to be as business friendly as possible otherwise attempts to introduce it would be blocked by commercial interests.''
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| ii) '''Below Inflation Adjustment'''
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| This is when a price of a product may be below the inflation rate, and an instant subsidy, or adjustment is created electronically. Again, to take a simple example. A customer wishes to buy product Z at the Point of Sale. The price is checked instantly by the inflation authority. It is found that Product Z is being sold below inflation by 2p. As such, the retailer, and not ofcourse, the customer gets 2p straight into their account.
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| What is described above is deliberately "simplistic" as there may well be many aspects to all this that are beyond the scope of our presentation.
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| iii) '''Instant Price Drop Subsidy'''
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| This may be necessary if the Free Market Price is rising too quickly. If so, a price drop may be undertaken instantaneously. At the same time, a subsidy, or adjustment is instantly created with new money which creates a "progressive" profit to a certain level for the retailer instead of a profit "loss". In effect, it creates an incentive to drop prices if, and when necessary.
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| iv) '''Temporary Electronic Price Capping.'''
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| Here, a maximun price may be set by a government, or by an FB in certain circumstances, or by any other "organization". If the price of production starts to exceed the maximun price, the producers would recieve instant financial help, or compensation where necessary as long as they stick to the temporary "control" price. Ofcourse, electronic price capping should be avoided at all cost as it could in certain instances lead to serious shortages, and price distortions.''The aim in TFE is to allow as far as possible for the laws of supply, and demand to be maintained naturally.''
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| ''It should again be added here that similar methods to the above could possibly be used to help control "bubbles" in the economy (eg."runaway" rising prices in the housing market being the classic example).'''
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| '''The Question of Economic Growth'''
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| ''As many realize the planet has finite resources. Thus, continous exponential growth cannot go on indefinitely. In Advanced TFE there is a long temporary period of rapid economic growth but it is heavily influenced notably by the power of FBs, and Facilitation Financing making the present capitalist system far more environmentally sustainable, more ethical, and energy efficient as never before in human history.''
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| Yet, how finite is our planet really? This is arguably at present an "impossible" question to fully, or accurately answer. But, it has also been pointed out that most of the resources of our planet lie under sea beds. To actually "mine them"(with robots) is prohibitively expensive but there appear to be small initial attempts to do just that. With Facilitation Finance this process could be speeded up, but it must be undertaken in a responsible manner.
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| Apart from mining sea beds, there are other ways to deal with the potential resource scarcity question. They could include the following:-
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| i) The development of safe Nanotechnology which could create new resources out of thin air via the manipulation of atoms.
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| ii) Space exploration with the aid of Facilitation Finance could find resources from other planets. These could be brought to our terrestrial world.
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| iii) Again, with Facilitation Finance it would be possible to create colonies on other planets, and hopefully, use their resources responsibly.
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| iv) Inventions could be developed to create more out of less, and less. For example, miniaturization of certain devices/products would require little in the way of resources for their creation. In economics this is sometimes referred to as dematerialization.
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| v) Digital Abundance is an awareness, and indeed, a growing reality that online/internet information is "infinite" and not subject to mainstream resource scarcity as we would understand it.
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| ''It should be said here that people (especially the young) should become more, and more educated in that we must live simpler, less materialistic lives. This does not mean going back to the "stone age" but instead to an advanced technological world in which higher values, or ideals should take their place of unnecessary overconsumption, or "affluenza". This is not a question of ideology. It is a question of practical necessity. This would all be part of GEMs, or Global Education Movements mentioned later on.''
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| '''Some Other Key Benefits of Transfinancial Economics.'''
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| Apart from the above section there are many other benefits with TFE. They would include the following list.
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| a) '''Poverty.'''
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| With TFE, NGOs concerned with this issue would become increasingly empowered financially by Facilitation Finance which could be had directly from a FB, or possibly a government agency. It could also come from one, or more "independent" grant-making body (ie. a foundation, or trust). Such better financed NGOs with good strategies, and logistics(ie good planning) could thus help reduce inequality in the world more quickly than at present.
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| Indeed, some of them could modify microfinance in the developing world to include an UBI, or Universal Basic Income, or subsidy of sorts without having to borrow money all the time (except possibly for the development of some form of self-employment/business ofcourse). It could be electronically created by FBs, or by genuine governments, or by both of them in partnership.
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| ''It should be stressed that every effort would be made to ensure that new money does not go into the wrong hands especially in the developing world. What is notably required here is a very credible "full-proof" system for the electronic tracking of funds which could lead to instant fines, and/or freeze of relevant targeted accounts. This was mentioned earlier on in the text in connection with FBs, but is worth repeating. Moreover, NGOs could get Facililtation Finance to help fund regular spot checks on people, and organisations involved in some socially ethical project be it social, or environmentally important.''
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| ''Moreover, such financing could also be invested in making sure aid workers are "fully" protected, along with their convoys from terrorist attacks in countries under crisis.''
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| b) '''Health Care.'''
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| Irrespective of whether health care is largely in private hands, or not, Facilitation Financing could help enhance the existing system in which everyone in spite of their economic status has access to high quality medical intervention. This process could happen in both the developed world, and the developing world. Again, efficient planning plays a vital role in all this ofcourse.
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| One vital potential application of all this is that TFE could fund in full, or in part new antibiotic drugs to help save the lives of huge numbers of people in the present, and in the future. Such medicines make little, or indeed, no real profit for the big corporations, and their ilke, and hence, an "unconventional" approach to funding may be required.
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| c) '''Food Security.'''
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| Here, innovative but safe production of more food could be funded in full, or in part by Facilitation Finance. Moreover, like their developed world couterparts, farmers in the developing world could receive in full, or in part subsidies notably via closely monitored new non-repayable money created electronically.
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| d) '''Population.'''
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| NGOs with ideas, and projects concerned with this matter could be funded in full, or in part by Facilitation Finance. These would probably be largely educational in nature (ie. family planning advice).
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| e) '''Climate Change, and Potential Global Warming.'''
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| ''This is probably the most important challenge facing the human race,(apart from potential resource scarcity) and could infact, threaten its very existence. A huge amount needs to be done in the quickest space of time. "Science Fiction" type projects should be considered seriously such as Geoengineering (eg.Sun Dimming Management undertaken very carefully if necessary), and various adaption, and mitigation projects such as the following where appropriate, and necessary...........
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| 1) Special smart dams..........
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| 2) Underground cities/towns............
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| 3) Artificial underwater dwellings..........
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| 4) Artificial "islands"...............
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| 5) Underground agriculture (this does seem to be possible, and could be done on a colossal scale helping to feed the global population)..............
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| 6) Mass Tree planting and machines to suck carbon out of the air............
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| 7) A whole variety of sustainable smart energy production (ideally decentralized) such as wind, wave power, and ofcourse solar energy, along with the development of effective long-term green reusable storage batteries, and other like innovations...............
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| 8) Introducing resilence in the construction of buildings, and other kinds of structures so that they can withstand a variety of extreme weather from Climate Change...............
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| 9) Smart green transport such as electric vehicles, or better still cycling if one is able..............
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| Governments need to take climate change very seriously, along with global warming irrespective of whether such "scenarios" ultimately happen, or not. To do otherwise is totally irresponsible, and could lead to the future deaths of thousands, or indeed, millions of people on the planet. It should be stated that most scientists believe that Climate Change is largely man-made, and could lead to serious Global Warming.''
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| ''It aught to be added that though the market price of renewables (notably for wind, and solar power)are falling the need for greater, and greater capital investment would still be necessary in projects notably mentioned above. This is very important to understand, and appreciate. Dealing with Climate Change, and potential Global Warming is a complex multi-faceted problem. Moreover, even if humanity manages to reach a largely low, or zero carbon state, there is no telling whether we have actually reached the so-called tipping point in which "irreversible" Global Warming occurs. Hence, the need to turn our planet into Fortress Earth which could largely withstand extreme weather conditions, and the like.''
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| ''*It should be noted that there is some evidence in connection with below ground "human-induced" activity causing minor earthquakes (so-called "HiQuakes") However, it should be noted that there is no reason to believe that structures such as houses underground could not be largely protected by advanced design "technology", but this ofcourse would require more capital investment.''
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| '''Possible National, and International "Compensation" with Facilitation Finance'''
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| One aspect of TFE is that any "unethical" environmental activity undertaken by some company, or transnational corporation could if absolutely necessary be paid "compensation" (depending on the situation) to stop, or correct itself from going ahead, or continuing with something which may be "wrong" for the people, and the planet. Such an approach has already been undertaken by a number of governments on certain issues (eg. protecting threatened forests), but ofcourse using earned money (ie.via taxation) on a limited scale. With TFE though such "compensation" can be undertaken on a massive scale by FBs, and possibly governments via an independent public authority.
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| In an ideal world there should be a credible global environmental agency which could ensure that corporations, and smaller business organizations are regulated in ways which are legally binding, and truly enforceable on an international scale. This is the high ethical approach.
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| However, the lower ethical approach of legally "bribing" them to move in the right directions would probably be necessary in a large number of cases. Ofcourse, we are not discussing here a friendly, or hostile takeover bid, or indeed, disinvestment ofcourse. The aim again is to be business friendly as possible without sacrificing many important ethical/environmental principles. This should speed up change which is vital in our present time.
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| ''An important example, of all this is the possible implications for over consumption of certain products (even where there may be a demand for them). Some lines of environmentally "wasteful" productions (eg particular types of goods with planned obsolescence) could be quickly phased out altogether where necessary, and profits lost as a result could be compensated using a one off payment, or alternatively as continuous compensation as if the products concerned were still being created, and sold. In other words, a lower ethical approach which may seem "utterly outrageous" for some, but may for practical purposes be deemed necessary.''
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| All this has profound importance for humanity. But it should be said that TFE is not the panacea for all the problems of the world. Yet, it can certainly help solve many of them in a "surprising" manner. | |
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| PS. Another way of doing things is B Corporation which issues private certificates claiming that a corporation is being "ethical" as far as social, and environmental issues are concerned.
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| '''"Full" Automation, the Future, and Global Citizenship'''
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| During the transition from a debt based economic system to a non-debt based one in which taxation, and interest could ultimately be phased out, many momentous, and simultaneous socio-economic, and political changes would probably occur. But the rates at which this evolutionary process would happen will vary from one country to another.
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| One of the future momentous events is the phasing in of "full" automation on a huge scale. This could lead to growing "unemployment". However, something like an UBI, or Universal Basic Income (mentioned earlier on) could be introduced irrespective of whether one is employed, or not. This would not require means testing. Moreover, it could be financed in full, or in part by new non-repayable funds without fear of serious inflation.
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| In the light of the above paragraph, other kinds of "leisure-like" forms of work, or employment could come into being. Alternatively, for some, a green business could be created but with a high degree of automation included. The finance for such things would not be a problem. Ultimately, the only problem with developing such "enterprises" would no longer be financial capital but rather good efficient small-scale, or large-scale planning, plus relevant resources. Ideally, such "businesses" should also be genuine cooperatives.
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| Naturally enough, TFE has great implications for NGOs. These Civil Societies could expand, and be able to bring aboard new recruits as money would become easier to find, and fundraising itself could also be ultimately phased out altogether in many cases. Hence, progress of socio-economic, and political issues (eg. Fair Trade, Human Rights, Poverty Reduction, Globalization, Racial Discrimination, Campaign Finance, et al) will gain far greater momentum, influence, and power as never before in human history. Thus, Advanced TFE can lead to greater, and greater Democracy rather than to some dystopian future.
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| Certain better financed NGOs would find it easier to challenge elitist plutocratic power structures if they feel that their activities to a certain extent are unethical in some manner, or other.
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| ''...But, TFE may make the wealthy richer notably with genuine green, and socially ethical type investments. It could also ironically lead to their own demise when automation begins to take over most work activities. This could be accelerated with new non-repayable money. When near "full" automation, is achieved on a largely global scale money itself could become largely, or wholly unnecessary. This is very important to try, and grasp.It is revolutionary. Essentially, TFE can be seen as a transitional stage from a money based system to something more akin to a non-money based one.''
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| With the growing financial empowerment of NGOs for a new, and hopefully a better, and fairer world the following could be included notably.
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| i) The continuance of Open Democracy, and respect for Universal Human Rights.
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| ii) Growing altruism, and more humanitarian action in society should act as the key incentive rather than the profit motive. This is very important. Indeed, so-called Hedonic, or Happiness Economics can play a part in all this via its "scientific quantification" of "well-being" of people through the further creation of special Indexes. This ofcourse goes beyond the mere material wealth accumulation of the Gross Domestic Product, or GDP of an entire country. Happiness Economics can present a more fuller, and more advanced picture of the economy in relation to human beings.
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| iii) Possible evolution towards direct/digital Democracy in which a Universal Debating Project could be part of a "Global Brain", or "forum" could be credibly created on the internet on a P2P Open Source basis to show clearly "all-known" arguments notably for, and against social, economic, and political issues (presented without too much verbal padding). In other words, an objective, and holistic approach to information. This could be updated continually in Real-Time.
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| iv) The need to move towards a society in which cooperation, and high ideals rather than competition, and greed should be the incentive to drive the world forwards. At the same time, there should be greater growth in the development of a "genuine" Sharing Economy in which products, and services could be shared for non-financial gain.
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| v) There should be a greater emphasis for "smaller" human-scale communities which could be highly self-sufficient. This is important, but huge "smart" eco-cities could also possibly be developed, and expanded simultaneously. Also, there should be a drive towards more, and more decentralised energy systems.
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| vi) As already indicated, NGOs notably concerned with inequality would become increasingly empowered by Facilitation Finance in the form of grants, and interest free loans to improve the lot of the poor. One aspect of this is the creation of more social housing which could be funded in full, or in part with new non-repayable money.
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| vii) Greater decentralisation of power especially at the top.
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| viii) Society should become less, and less hierarchical.
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| It is ultimately envisaged that something like an advanced technological world will emerge. The Venus Project inspired by Jacque Fresco, a noted populariser of something akin to Technocracy could be seen as an example of what could be done. Unfortunately, it does not seem to have any real, or credible transition plan, unlike Transfinancial Economics.
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| The ideas above could help form the basis of a new global order of existence. They are progressive, and humane. They also indicate the need for the entire world to move towards Global Cooperation, and Global Citizenship.
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| Indeed, there should over time be the creation of Global Education Movements (or GEMs)which could inspire the young especially, to bring about change in the world. Ofcourse, there are many groups already which are similar to GEMs. They could join in, and work together more, and more to bring about a "saner" reality in the spirit of genuine cooperation. This could notably occur with P2P-like computer networks.
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| Naturally enough, GEMs could be funded in full, or in part with new money electronically created.
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| PS. It should be stressed that automation (''including robotics ofcourse'') should be totally suited to a low carbon, or "zero carbon economy," and as such would qualify for Facilitation Financing.
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| '''Campaign Activism for Transfinancial Economics.'''
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| In order to bring about the serious possibility of change from our present debt based economy of taxation, and interest to one which is largely non-debt based, a campaign would be necessary. Unfortunately, at the present time, a grassroots organization(s) to directly challenge banks, and their kind is unlikely to work. A more pragmatic approach is needed.
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| To promote TFE a campaign is required. Initially, it is suggested here that a professional website would need to be set up to spread the word of Transfinancial Economics as a serious, and credible proposal. It could be sent to people, and organizations that have real power, and influence such as government policy makers, banks, specialized financial companies, progressive think tanks, et cetera. Other such strategies could be utilized. This is probably the way forward, and there are a number of other key aspects to this process notably in connection with the main website. They are:-
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| I. News update about the campaign progress, notably the lobbying of certain governments.
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| II. Commissioned papers (initially) by willing forward thinking economists (and others, notably computer scientists) possibly using econometric models to show the efficacy of TFE in technical terms, including detailed studies on various facets of the subject.
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| III. A scholarly online Journal of Transfinancial Economics.
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| V. A powerpoint presentation of TFE for downloading.
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| VI. ''Monitoring advances in technology, notably in connection to dynamic algorithmic pricing, and developments in Big Data would help to give TFE greater, and greater credibility. Indeed, it aught to be added that there are now initiatives to electronically track to a limited degree, the Free Market Price of products, and services in Real-Time.''
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| VII. Possible field trials of the electronic technologies involved in TFE. This could be partly, or fully funded by governments, and/or by corporations, or possibly by some other source such as a NGO(s).
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| At some point, the concept of TFE would probably have to go before the US authorities, the European Parliament, the UK Parliament, and other democratic governments. Ideally, most countries especially in the developed world should work in consort to introduce something like TFE. However, certain developing countries which may have corrupt governments may only be helped indirectly, and would not necessarily be allowed to create full Advanced TFE. Hence, possible geo-political implications.
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| Anyway, a "good," but controversial idea is to try, and market TFE to certain corporations(and ofcourse, other smaller businesses) as a huge global "business opportunity" of colossal importance. Ideally, such massive businesses though should ideally have some serious, and genuine interest in sustainability. They could form a special alliance to put pressure on governments for revolutionary financial reform, possibly in Washington to carry out Primary Stage TFE at least (though QE has been, or is being undertaken indirectly financially supporting the economy via certain businesses rather than a direct QE for the people)
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| Advanced TFE (ie Electronic Transaction Monitoring, or ETM)would be more difficult, and controversial to "sell," and become law on a national, or more international scale. But it has a huge number of social, economic, and political benefits. It is this that should help to "easily" sell it not only to the rich, but more importantly to the masses who could find that their financial problems could be "progressively" eased.
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| '''Basic Glossary'''
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| What is presented here are the basic definition of key terms in TFE. New ones may be added in the future, but most of the terminology would ultimately come from mainstream economics.
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| *'''Transfinancial''' = The latin word trans implies something above, or beyond. In this case, it can be interpreted as being beyond conventional finance, and indeed, economics itself (ie Transfinancial Economics). In another context, transfinancial can imply money being transferred across borders to other countries.
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| *'''Facilitation Banks (FBs)''' = These would be quite unlike their mainstream "counterparts" in that they have a licence to create new non-repayable money directly, and indirectly into the economy. Moreover, their regulatory framework is far more tighter than an ordinary bank. Ideally, they could among other things closely track, and monitor electronically where newly created money goes, and can instantly override, and fine an account holder if it is deemed that certain funds have gone to a "wrong" account (ie. fraud prevention). The aim of FBs would be notably concerned with creating finance for environmental projects, and high social/ethical concerns. Ofcourse, it should be added that Central Banks could do the "same" work as FBs if necessary.
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| *'''Primary (Stage) TFE''' = Here, very limited amounts of mainly new debt-free non-repayable money could be gradually created electronically into the economy directly, and indirectly. Repayable money, or loans could be created as well if necessary. Economic Indicators (ie.GDP, and Inflation Indices) could be used to decide whether more new money could be created, or not. If inflationary pressures grow the conventional methods of raising taxation, and interest on loans could be undertaken. This is intended to help reduce the money supply, and hence, inflation. Primary TFE can also be largely equated with concepts of QE for the People, so-called Helicopter Money, Overt Monetary Financing, Emergency Money (term used in Numismatics for governments notably creating their own money), Deficit Spending (in conventional economics), Debt-Free Money (term usually used in Social Credit), and a Modern Debt Jubilee (suggested by Steve Keen, a noted economist)
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| *'''Advanced (Stage) TFE''' = This is when most goods, and services would be tracked electronically, and have instantaneous checks undertaken at the point of transaction. This is done to find out their inflation status, and also to ideally discover the IDs of most goods, and services. The latter aspect is used to instantly create a profile, or electronic GDP of the economy in Real-Time. At the point of transaction electronic checks are undertaken by supercomputers (and/or quantum supercomputers as indicated at the very end of the first section of this presentation)when the relevant pricing data is sent to an inflation authority. It is then that the inflation status, and IDs of most goods, and services can be ascertained. The resulting data is transmitted to the cashier, and certain "unconventional" electronic controls may be used to adjust the Free Market Price.
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| *'''Electronic Transaction Monitoring (ETM)''' = This is explained above. It is simply the monitoring of most goods, and services of products, and services.
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| *'''Facilitation Finance''' = The circulation of mainly new Debt-Free non-repayble electronic money by special Smart Banks, or Facilitation Banks(FBs), and/or possibly by governments. This Facilitation Finance can be seen as the result of a money creation process known in economics as Quantitative Easing, or QE. Ofcourse, repayable money could be created electronically sans interest ideally.
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| *'''Grant Interest''' = The creation of new money as something non-repayable by an independent organisation (other than the mainstream banking system) to gradually pay on behalf of a customer or company the interest on a loan. This is a controversial concept.
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| ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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| '''Some Key References'''
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| The following is not exhaustive ofcourse. The literature on finance, monetary reform, economics,and sustainability, is vast with an array of well-known, and little-known authors.
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| Steve Keen, ''Debunking Economics - Revised and Expanded Edition: The Naked Emperor Dethroned?'' Zed Books, 2011
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| David Colander (Author), Paul Ormerod (Author), Dave Ramsden (Author), Paul Seabright (Author), John Sloman (Author), Edward Glaeser (Author), Andrew Haldane (Author), John Kay (Author), Andrew Lo (Author), Diane Coyle (Editor),
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| ''What's the Use of Economics? Teaching the Dismal Science after the Crisis,'' published 2012.
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| L. Randall Wray, ''Modern Money Theory: A Primer on Macroeconomics for Sovereign Monetary Systems,'' Palgrave Macmillan, 2012
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| Stephen Zarlenga,''The Lost Science of Money: The Mythology of Money, The Story of Power,'' AMI, Dec 2002
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| J.W. Hughes,''Major Douglas: The Policy of a Philosophy,'' Wedderspoon Associates,2002
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| Ellen Hodgson Brown and Reed Simpson, ''Web of Debt: The Shocking Truth About Our Money System and How We Can Break Free,'' 2012 edition (among many other interesting things, it includes some rare info on "experiments" used by early American Colonists to create "enough" new money to fund various projects)
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| Josh Ryan-Collins (Author), Tony Greenham (Author), Richard Werner (Author), Andrew Jackson (Author) ''Where Does Money Come From?: A Guide to the UK Monetary and Banking System,'' New Economics Foundation, 2012
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| Jeffrey D. Sachs,''Common Wealth: Economics for a Crowded Planet,''Penguin Books, 2009
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| Jeffrey D. Sachs, ''The Price of Civilization: Reawakening American Virtue and Prosperity,'' Random House Trade Paperbacks, 2012
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| Joseph Stiglitz, ''Freefall: America, Free Markets, and the Sinking of the World Economy,'' W. W. Norton & Company, 2010
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| Noreena Hertz, ''IOU: The Debt Threat and Why We Must Defuse It,'' Fourth Estate, 2010
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| Mckenzie Funk, ''Windfall, The Booming Business of Climate Change,'' Penguin, 2014
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| Viktor Mayer-Schonberger, and Kenneth Cukier, ''Big Data: A Revolution That Will Transform How We Live, Work and Think,'' John Murray, 2013
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| Jeremy Rifkin, ''The Zero Marginal Cost Society: The Internet of Things, the Collaborative Commons, and the Eclipse of Capitalism,'' Palgrave Macmillan, 2014
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| Naomi Klein, ''This Changes Everything: Capitalism vs. the Climate'' Simon & Schuster, 2014
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| Vasilis Kostakis, Michel Bauwens, ''Network Society and Future Scenarios for a Collaborative Economy'' Palgrave Pivot, 2014
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| -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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| '''Some Links Of Possible Interest.'''
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| The following links may be of interest.
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| 1) TFE is notably similiar to Social Credit. The following link may be of interest, and a French version also exists.
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| http://www.michaeljournal.org/plenty42.htm
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| 2) An introduction to MMT, or Modern Monetary Theory which is also similiar to TFE.
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| http://ralphanomics.blogspot.com/2011/02/introduction-to-modern-monetary-theory.html
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| 4) Trond Andresen connects electronic money to MMT in his working paper. He may have drawn some of his inspiration from TFE. A link here is also included on Steve Keen's Modern Debt Jubilee
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| http://www.itk.ntnu.no/ansatte/Andresen_Trond/econ/mmt-electronic.pdf
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| https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ocQWs8EteqI
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| 5) The following link to a NGO is concerned with how money is created, and used.
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| http://www.positivemoney.org.uk/
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| 6) The idea of businesses working in a possible future Real-Time monitored economy has been mooted at. Ofcourse, TFE ultimately goes beyond this to include a deeper, and far more accurate understanding of the actual workings of the economy itself. This is revolutionary, and turns economics on its head. Indeed, it could be argued that TFE is the most important breakthrough in the history of economics, and this may one day be recognized.
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| http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real-time_economy
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| Certain initiatives are being undertaken to a limited degree to track the Free Market Prices of goods in Real-Time. Some examples are as follows http://theeconomicrealms.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/real-time-economic-data-tracking.html
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| http://theeconomicrealms.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/mit-launches-real-time-inflation-indices.html
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| http://theeconomicrealms.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/raging-inflation-narendra-modi.html
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| http://information.aalto.fi/en/research/rte/ (Finnish academic organization concerned with the possibility of Real-Time economics)
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| 7) Kenya, of all places have been using the mobile phone as the main means to transmit, and indeed, recieve funds electronically.
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| http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11793290
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| 8) The links below lead to a blog developed by the author of this presentation on TFE
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| http://theeconomicrealms.blogspot.co.uk/2012/12/how-can-anything-rival-threat-of.html
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| http://theeconomicrealms.blogspot.co.uk/2012/11/paradise-or-oblivion.html
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| 10) High Frequency Trading is an example of the power of advanced automated computer technology. http://www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_frequency_trading
| | [2] Clegg, Brian. (2021). Quantum Computing; The Transformative Technology of the Qubit Revolution. Icon |
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| | [3] Cockshott, W. Paul., & Cottrell, Allin. (1993). Towards a New Socialism. Spokesman Books. |
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| 11) The idea of something like a cybernetic economy has been around for sometime. The following links may be of interest, and appear to offer "techno-economic" ideas within a genuine socialist, or communist type system. With TFE though we are discussing an economy that exists within the framework of a more "ethical" futuristic capitalist system which would ideally have genuine open democracy, and respect for universal human rights rather than some dystopia, or totalitarian system. This is always important to remember. Yet, if society decides it can evolve into a "higher," or more "advanced" social structure similiar to one envisaged by Technocracy. In this respect, TFE can be seen as a "credible" transitional system to a "better" world.
| | [4] Gates, William Henry. (2021). How to avoid a Climate Disaster; The Solutions we have and the Breakthroughs. Allen Lane. |
| http://p2pfoundation.net/Towards_a_New_Cybernetic_Socialism http://blog.p2pfoundation.net/why-you-should-read-the-essay-red-plenty-platforms/2013/08/20 http://p2pfoundation.net/Cybernetic_Communism
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| http://p2pfoundation.net/Cybernetic_Revolutionaries http://p2pfoundation.net/Cybernetic_Planning http://encyclopedia2.thefreedictionary.com/Economic+Cybernetics
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| Reference is also made to Paul Cockshott, and his Cybersocialism https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LtlZys7QOO4
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| | [5] Haldane, Andy. (2018, April 30). Mapping the economy in real time is almost within our grasp. Financial Times.https://www.ft.com/content/58190dc2- 4c79-11e8-97e4-13afc 22 d86d4 |
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| 12) Professor Richard Werner was the originator of the term Quantitative Easing, or QE. But it has been completely misinterpreted as the following link reveals
| | [6] Heydorn, Oliver. M. (2014). Social Credit Economics. Canada: CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform. |
| http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24614016#story_continues_3
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| | [7] Kansas, Salina. (2021, October23). The Real-Time Revolution; How the pandemic reshaped the dismal science. The Economist.https:// www.economist.com/briefing/2021/10/23/enter-third-wave-economics |
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| 13) The problems facing the management, and possible success of Megaprojects, notably IT ones.http://blog.budzier.com/me-research/
| | [8] Kelton, Stephanie. (2020). The Deficit Myth: Modern Monetary Theory and how to build a Better Economy. John Murray. |
| http://www.mckinsey.com/client_service/public_sector/latest_thinking/mckinsey_on_government/seven_imperatives_for_success_in_it_megaprojects
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| | [9] McDermott, John. (2004).Economics in Real Time, a Theoretical Reconstruction. The University of Michigan Press. |
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| | [10] Sharda, Sahaj. (2018). The Extinction of the Price Tag; How dynamic pricing can save you. New Degree Press. |
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| 14) The use, and development of Big Data appears to be growing apace in the world. It has huge significance for TFE
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| http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_data
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| 15) The use of dynamic pricing, and algorithms is becoming a serious reality. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dynamic_pricing
| | Important. Many people reading the above may realize that the concept like a “Blockchain” would be used in Transfinancial Economics to monitor transactions in real time…. it would not though use cryptocurrencies. |
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| 16) Serious problems may be faced with ageing bank computer systems. With TFE it may be possible to help in full, or in part the financing of new IT systems.http://theeconomicrealms.blogspot.co.uk/2013/12/banking-it-crisis.html
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| 17) The Resource Based Economy may be of interest.
| | == Some key Points to understand in brief == |
| http://www.theresourcebasedeconomy.com/
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| 18) The Universal Debating Project http://www.p2pfoundation.net/Universal_Debating_Project
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| 19) The idea of the Industrial Internet is similar to the concept of ETM in TFE. http://gelookahead.economist.com/industrial-internet/
| | I. One possible problem with TFE is ofcourse shortages due notably in connection with food security. This is not mentioned in the above paper in detail. This could be alleviated to a large extent with forward thinking and credible planning using special monitored non-repayable money. However, as Climate Change worsen governments will probably be forced to introduce manual price controls but such a measure though would largely be resisted by mainstream economics. Ofcourse, conspiracy theorists would come out of the wood work if and when this happens. Another issue is that highly flexible digital price controls unlike their manual counterparts would be far more efficient (though |
| http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrial_Internet
| | they could be better termed as inflation controls).But the latter could act as a stopgap for the former if absolutely necessary. |
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| 20) The Internet of Things could have relevance to TFE. http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Internet_of_Things&redirect=no
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| 21) Jeremy Corbyn, leader of the UK Labour Party has expressed some interest in a direct form of Quantitative Easing for the people, and possibly businesses as well. http://theeconomicrealms.blogspot.co.uk/2015/08/corbyns-peoples-qe-could-actually-be.html
| | II. Apart from the Central Bank creating new green non-payable money which ofcourse is already happening to some extent new green repayable money can also be created. Special private banks or indeed, existing ones could also be used in part and would have an operating fee as profit instead of charging interest. The source of such funding would come from the Central Bank or some other kind of legal entity.In other words, the private sector could profit greatly via TFE. |
| http://theeconomicrealms.blogspot.co.uk/2015/08/is-corbynomics-inflationary.html
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| http://theeconomicrealms.blogspot.co.uk/2015/08/chris-leslie-has-got-corbynomics-wrong.html
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| Richard Murphy who wrote the article on the last link above seems to have written a lot on QE as revealed in the link on the following link so to speak...
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| http://theeconomicrealms.blogspot.co.uk/2015/08/how-green-infrastructure-quantitative.html
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| The following are links to searches concerning possibilities for the future. TFE could play a big part in their realization.
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| 1) Undersea living https://www.google.co.uk/webhp?hl=en#safe=strict&hl=en-GB&q=undersea+living
| | II. In the normal state of affairs green goods and services should as time goes by become cheaper and hence more attractive as demand naturally increases from the public. However, this process is already happening somewhat "slowly" but there are marketing stratagies which could artificially alter this situation, and this needs to be developed to create green competition using small or large subsidies. Companies that could loose out at first would be compensated using new capital created ex nihilo. The details of exactly how green artificial "competition" works is still being developed in detail at the time of writing.Moreover, shortages of certain products may occur and there may be a degree market distortion. This could be dealt with to a large extent via "instataneous"compensation. |
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| 2) Underground Agriculture https://www.google.co.uk/webhp?hl=en#safe=strict&hl=en-GB&q=underground+agriculture
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| 3) Smart Eco Cities https://www.google.co.uk/webhp?hl=en#safe=strict&hl=en&q=smart+eco+cities
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| 4) Smart Technologies https://www.google.co.uk/webhp?hl=en#safe=strict&hl=en-GB&q=Smart+Technogies
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| 5) Smart Sustainable Resilence https://www.google.co.uk/webhp?hl=en#safe=strict&hl=en-GB&q=Smart+Sustainable+Resilience
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| 6) Robots https://www.google.co.uk/webhp?hl=en#safe=strict&hl=en-GB&q=robotics
| | IV.The originator of TFE is very much aware that Transfinancial Economics would increase emissions. This is unfortunate but hopefully with further funding the way or ways to deal with this problem would be better funded as never before. There are ofcourse a number of so-called carbon capture programmes in the world, but much more like this needs to be done. Anyway, all this means is that if we have Rapid Green Growth or RGG many people would still die during the Climate Change Crisis. This is tragically unavoidable. But if this were slowly undertaken (as is the case now) it is more probable that the death toll would be much higher in the long run. |
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| 7) Automation https://www.google.co.uk/webhp?hl=en#safe=strict&hl=en-GB&q=automation
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| 8) Smart Sustainable Transport https://www.google.co.uk/webhp?hl=en#safe=strict&hl=en-GB&q=smart+sustainable+transport
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| 9) Future Studies https://www.google.co.uk/webhp?hl=en#safe=strict&hl=en-GB&q=future+studies
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| 10) Smart Agricuture https://www.google.co.uk/webhp?hl=en&ei=0NPyVfKqB-O17gag97egDQ#safe=strict&hl=en-GB&q=smart+agriculture
| | V. It is important to understand that when TFE becomes a reality there is no direct or indirect of taxation. The reason is simple. Since money can retain its value in real time it cannot be inflated to a serious degree, and cause devaluation of money. This means ofcourse that more money can be transmitted into the economy safely. All this has notable implications for charities, and NG0s, or non-governmental organisations as it would mean that raising money from earned sources would no longer be absolutely necessary. This is revolutionary. The only limits ofcourse for this are limited human and natural resources at any point in time. |
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| 11) Geoengineering https://www.google.co.uk/webhp?hl=en&ei=7tPyVbnvJIfb7AarkpzYAg#safe=strict&hl=en-GB&q=geoengineering
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| 12) Undersea Mining (for resources) https://www.google.co.uk/webhp?hl=en#safe=strict&hl=en-GB&q=undersea+mining+
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| 13) Supercomputers / Quantum Computers https://www.google.co.uk/webhp?hl=en#safe=strict&hl=en-GB&q=Supercomputers+Quantum+Computers
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| 14) Terraforming https://www.google.co.uk/?as_qdr=all&gws_rd=cr,ssl&ei=IrTyVcfRC4absgHSqrOgDQ#safe=strict&as_qdr=all&q=Terraforming
| | VI. Originally, the above entry included a lengthy piece on TFE but this is not included here, though it may re-appear. It maybe found elsewhere probably on The Economics Realms blogspot. |
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| 15) Heat Resistance/Climate Change https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C1GGRV_enGB758&biw=1920&bih=974&ei=hKE-Xs6WAZq4gAaAmoPgBQ&q=heat+resistance+climate+change&oq=heat+resistance+climate+change&gs_l=psy-ab.12...0.0..34134...0.0..0.0.0.......0......gws-wiz.-sbQ6PdRz5o&ved=0ahUKEwjO6KLg8sHnAhUaHMAKHQDNAFwQ4dUDCAs
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| 16) Nanotechnology https://www.google.co.uk/webhp?hl=en#safe=strict&hl=en-GB&q=nanotechnology
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| 17) Renewable Energy https://www.google.co.uk/webhp?hl=en#safe=strict&hl=en-GB&q=Renewable+Energy
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| 18) Big Data/Economics https://www.google.co.uk/webhp?hl=en#safe=strict&hl=en-GB&q=Big+Data+economics (The huge importance, and relevance of Big Data in economics is slowly dawning in mainstream, and heterodox economic circles)
| | VII. Furthermore, over the years TFE has been circulated around on the internet, and has attracted a number of influential people including the noted rebell economist Steve Keen (and some of his followers), Ellen Brown, Stephen Zarlenga, Baron Prem Sikka, Richard Murphy, Hazel Henderson (who was especially keen on TFE), and even the present Lord Nathan Rothschild and his family seem to be interested in the new economic paradigm to some extent. There are also some indications that certain commercial entities (ie potential private investors) may be taking some interest in TFE and ofcourse, they could help attract relevant funding for the emergence of TFE into the world. |
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| 19) Inflation in Real-Time https://www.google.co.uk/search?source=hp&ei=-Ks-XrqtN4PeauKoqLgH&q=economics+in+real+time+fast+indicators&oq=economics+in+real+time+fast+indicators&gs_l=psy-ab.12..33i22i29i30.1574.15491..17056...4.0..0.128.3141.37j5......0....1..gws-wiz.......0i131j0j0i10j0i22i30j0i13i5i30j33i10.X-jN5lmYEb0&ved=0ahUKEwi6idvc_MHnAhUDrxoKHWIUCncQ4dUDCAc#spf=1581165571693 (There is now a growing "literature" on attempts to track inflation in Real-Time. This is a vital of Advanced Stage TFE)
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| PS. Robert Searle is the originator of this "work in progress" project. His email address is robertsearle46@googlemail.com . Admitedly, my bio below is to some extent "unconventional," but it is hoped it will not detract from any interest in the above project.
| | VIII. Another aspect of this subject is that notably big oil and gas companies could possibly be legally "bribed" and bought up and phased out to make way for an economy run by clean sustainable energy. Admitedly, this may not be the most ethical way of doing things but humanity must come first rather than powerful vested interests. |
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| https://wiki.p2pfoundation.net/Robert_Searle
| | Finally, it should be said in this brief introduction the originator (ie. Robert Searle) of the TFE System hopes to write a few more papers on some aspect(s) of this subject. At the same time he hopes to fully research and complete a book probably to be entitled Towards Economic Revolution, subtitled Global Financial Reform and the Survival of the Human Race. This may take two years or so and would require help from a whole array of experts including those in economics, business, politics, law, computers, et al. |
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| [[Category:Economics]] | | [[Category:Economics]] |
The following is a brief paper which also appears in a respected academic book edited by Dr Debesh Bhowmik. It is entitled An Approach Towards Central Bank Digital Currency published by Kunal Books, New Delhi, 2022. In Chapter4 the material below is presented. Also, it should be mentioned that a paper published in 2016 entitled Orthodox Monetary Theory: A Critique From Post-Keynesianism and Transfinancial Economics by Dante A. Urbina appears in a book called International Monetary System. Past, Present, and Future Regal Publishing, India. RS
FUTURISTIC ECONOMICS FOR THE 21ST CENTURY?
by Robert Searle
Abstract
The following is in brief concerned with the very basics of an emerging paradigm known as Transfinancial Economics or TFE. It can be seen as a form of Keynesian Economics. Basic to it is the huge relevance of the use of computers and information technology in finance. This would act as a means of notably influencing the economy towards a more ethical, and greener environmentally friendly economy as never before. Many will regard TFE as being similar to Modern Monetary Theory or MMT which has gained a large amount of publicity in recent years. However, the latter is regarded as being a precursor and possible stopgap to TFE which is far more advanced. At the time of writing what follows is still “work in progress”. Of course, it raises many questions which may be answered in the near future such as TFE’s connection with exchange rates and of course the possible emergence of Central Bank Digital Currencies, or CBDCs.
Keywords: Transfinancial Economics, Modern Monetary Theory, Inflation Taxation, Digital Price Controls, Climate Change
JEL Classification Codes: E42,F33,F65,G00,O3,Q54
1. Nationwide Electronic/Digital Price Controls
Essentially, Transfinancial Economics or TFE believes notably that new unearned repayable and non-repayable money can be digitally created ex nihilo and phased into the economy safely without leading to uncontrolled levels of inflation or indeed hyperinflation. This is simply done with the aid of highly flexible electronic digital price controls used for nearly every kind of financial transaction in real time. Thus, if there is a concern about some rise in the prices of certain goods and services these could be digitally capped temporarily. This would be an instantaneous process and could occur automatically in any part of the economy. This could be undertaken with the help of supercomputers or more likely by quantum computers (Clegg, 2021).
Of course, such digital price controls are not the ideal way of doing things but they are better than nothing. Some form of compensation could be created for retailers if desired. However, it must be stressed here that with the right algorithms the market price is allowed to change naturally as much as possible. Whether we like it or not most of the money exists as digital data in a bank. It is used in any number of transaction but “real” money like cash and coin can still be used (unmonitored or possibly monitored in some way) but it would make up only a tiny fraction of the overall economy, and hence, would have near zero significance in our understanding of the whole economy. This is an important but basic point to understand.
Also, in connection notably with vital climate change projects a legally binding agreement should ideally be undertaken to use certain algorithms to track funding. They could detect and instantly ” freeze” in real-time any money that may be involved in fraud.
2. Big Data and Real-Time Economics/The Uncloaking of the “Invisible Hand”.
As one might well realize it would be possible to understand the entire economy in real-time (or near real-time). This colossal accounting data would be created 24/7 with virtually every transaction notably using barcodes, or something similar. The central Inflation Authority would be programmed to instantly check the inflation status of each product or service and if at all necessary instant temporary price capping may occur. Hence, a huge picture of the economy would be possible and could prove invaluable for future economists. Also, such incoming real-time economic indicators would be totally up to date and as such would have no long-time lags unlike conventional economic data.
In spite of this though such information cannot fully rule out uncertainty in the economy. Yet, the data emerging instantaneously should at least give us a far better idea of how it is “working” and this could be important for decision-making. AI or Artificial Intelligence could also play a vital role in all this. Apart from identified transaction data there are what are referred to as Faster Indicators. These use various types of economic activity to be factored in to give us an even wider understanding of the economy in real time (Salina, 2020; Haldane, 2018).
It must be made clear that what we have been saying so far is a capitalist economy. TFE though can also be adapted into a socialist or communist type of economy because it can notably make central planning a lot easier and more likely to succeed unlike conventional economics. Indeed, Economic Cybernetics is an example of this kind of approach, and it is also possible in some future time to have an economy which is “completely” automated and where money is no longer necessary (Cockshott & Cottrell, 1993).
The concepts of TFE are like those proposed by Clifford Douglas and his Social Credit Movement but they have the added dimension of using Big Data and instant digital price capping which did not exist in his time. If he were around today, he would have been impressed by the use of computers, smart phones, plastic cards, et al in developing a futuristic economy. Modern Monetary Theory or MMT is to some extent similar. It should be added too that the term “Social Credit” has nothing to do with the dystopian system of the same name in China (Heydorn, 2014).
Finally in this section of this brief paper it should be said that in time the financial industry will hopefully be powered more and more by sustainable (non-fossil fuel) electricity, and it should be said too that it is possible
to have a high degree of commercial confidentiality in connection with the digital transaction data instantaneously going to the Inflation Authority 24/7 for specific businesses of one kind, or another.
3. Maintaining the Value of Money in Real-Time.
TFE would be able to maintain the value of money in real-time at the point of sale (POS). For example, person T buys product A in a shop and its retail price is instantly checked for its inflation status. It is found to be above the inflation rate by 50p and the customer though has already spent this amount but is compensated for it digitally by having it recreated into his or her account. This is called Above Inflation Adjustment. In another instance, person T buys product C which is 30p below the inflation rate and it is the retailer who gets the extra 30p by a digital recreation of it in her or her account. This is called Below Inflation Adjustment. (McDermott,2004).
4. Dynamic Pricing in Real-Time
Fintech is short for Financial Technology. It is a critical part of the TFE paradigm without which it cannot exist. A good example of such financial technology which exists now is Dynamic Pricing. Essentially, it can automatically deal with variable pricing due to changes in supply and demand. It has been successfully utilised in areas such as transportation, hospitality, professional sports, retail, and the like. Even Amazon uses it along with many other companies (Sharda, 2018). All this adds greater credibility to the idea of developing a genuine real-time economy on a national and ultimately international scale. Of course, it has to be realized and remembered that real-time data is used by financial markets around the world in which investors can keep an eye on the value of their shares, or securities. Traders can use such information to make “bets” on the rise and fall of prices of the various companies such as Apple, Google, Unilever, and many other lesser-known ones.
5. TFE and the Climate Change Emergency
At present the greatest challenge facing humanity is the climate change emergency. Tragically, it seems highly likely that it will become irreversible (if it is not already). As such governments, Bigtech companies, and smaller businesses must try if possible to make serious efforts to create credible resilient adaption and mitigation projects on a scale never before known in human history. All this ultimately costs money. Hence, TFE. With this emerging paradigm it would be possible to create new money to fund credible and “feasible” green projects. Of course, investors could be invited to invest venture capital into such investments which could prove lucrative. Such projects may seem in some cases more like “science fiction” but now is the time to think outside the box otherwise we could see the global demise of the human race. It is simple as that. Climate change emergency is not just a physical challenge it is also a spiritual one of the highest order.
Here are a few examples of potential green projects which need to be undertaken (though some of them are in the making or have already been done but not on a scale ultimately necessary for human survival) and they include more solar and wind and solar power facilities; more factory plants and mechanical trees to suck carbon emissions out of the atmosphere; more electric cars; more advances in Nanotechnology in which atomic structures could create new materials in a world of limited resources; possible underground cities and even underground agriculture may be a required to some extent; natural solutions; sun dimming which may be necessary but a controversial move; more flood defences; more recycling centres and so on. At the same time with all this going on the likes of entrepreneurs such as Bezos and Musk can “wisely” continue with the possible colonisation of the moon and even mars (Gates, 2002; Carney, 2021).
6. The Basic Differences between Transfinancial Economics and Modern Monetary Theory
Modern Monetary Theory is at the time of writing been in the public spotlight for several years and has attracted much public attention. It is similar to Transfinancial Economics or TFE. MMT claims that the government is the sole issuer of the national currency and can fund public expenditure and only raises taxation, if necessary, as a means of controlling inflation at some future date. In this respect, TFE is in agreement. Infact, something like MMT already exists. It is called Deficit Spending. This is when governments need more money and can borrow it and (or) create new amounts of it (Kelton, 2020). This of course works but only to a limited extent. Now, the key differences are:
a) TFE uses digital price controls to monitor and if necessary, cap the market price. These would cover the entire economy and not just tiny sections of it. MMT though would use taxation to control inflation instead but may ultimately use price controls.
b) Unlike MMT TFE has a very advanced understanding of the economy via Big Data in real-time whilst the former would probably largely rely on old outdated understanding of economics.
c) As MMT continues to create new money into the economy a point may be reached that too much money will circulate and could lead to not just gradual rises in inflation but to a sudden mass catastrophic state of hyperinflation. With TFE such problems are dealt with directly by digital controls that would instantaneously control the situation at a touch of a button or indeed happen automatically.
d) Since TFE would have a far more accurate comprehension of the economy in real-time it can assess the potential inflation tax liability (possibly as an online sales tax) months or years ahead. On the other hand, MMT could find itself in a situation in which the overall inflation tax liability would be too heavy, and could even cause social unrest. Incidentally, it should be added that a tax rebate is possible in which the inflation taxation paid could be digitally recreated in full, or in part at a future date.
e) Unlike MMT TFE can adjust the value of money if necessary and instantaneously when products and services are bought in real-time at the point of sale (POS). This of course is when the inflation status is checked by the Inflation Authority. Thus, the purchasing power of money is largely or wholly maintained. This was explained in brief early on using two examples.
f) In MMT the government is seen as the key issuer of currency as something which is non- repayable. However, special private banks could be had in which such grants or (non-governmental) “subsides” could be created digitally.
Key References
[1] Carney, Mark. (2021). Value (s), Building a Better World for All. William Collins.
[2] Clegg, Brian. (2021). Quantum Computing; The Transformative Technology of the Qubit Revolution. Icon
[3] Cockshott, W. Paul., & Cottrell, Allin. (1993). Towards a New Socialism. Spokesman Books.
[4] Gates, William Henry. (2021). How to avoid a Climate Disaster; The Solutions we have and the Breakthroughs. Allen Lane.
[5] Haldane, Andy. (2018, April 30). Mapping the economy in real time is almost within our grasp. Financial Times.https://www.ft.com/content/58190dc2- 4c79-11e8-97e4-13afc 22 d86d4
[6] Heydorn, Oliver. M. (2014). Social Credit Economics. Canada: CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform.
[7] Kansas, Salina. (2021, October23). The Real-Time Revolution; How the pandemic reshaped the dismal science. The Economist.https:// www.economist.com/briefing/2021/10/23/enter-third-wave-economics
[8] Kelton, Stephanie. (2020). The Deficit Myth: Modern Monetary Theory and how to build a Better Economy. John Murray.
[9] McDermott, John. (2004).Economics in Real Time, a Theoretical Reconstruction. The University of Michigan Press.
[10] Sharda, Sahaj. (2018). The Extinction of the Price Tag; How dynamic pricing can save you. New Degree Press.
Important. Many people reading the above may realize that the concept like a “Blockchain” would be used in Transfinancial Economics to monitor transactions in real time…. it would not though use cryptocurrencies.
Some key Points to understand in brief
I. One possible problem with TFE is ofcourse shortages due notably in connection with food security. This is not mentioned in the above paper in detail. This could be alleviated to a large extent with forward thinking and credible planning using special monitored non-repayable money. However, as Climate Change worsen governments will probably be forced to introduce manual price controls but such a measure though would largely be resisted by mainstream economics. Ofcourse, conspiracy theorists would come out of the wood work if and when this happens. Another issue is that highly flexible digital price controls unlike their manual counterparts would be far more efficient (though
they could be better termed as inflation controls).But the latter could act as a stopgap for the former if absolutely necessary.
II. Apart from the Central Bank creating new green non-payable money which ofcourse is already happening to some extent new green repayable money can also be created. Special private banks or indeed, existing ones could also be used in part and would have an operating fee as profit instead of charging interest. The source of such funding would come from the Central Bank or some other kind of legal entity.In other words, the private sector could profit greatly via TFE.
II. In the normal state of affairs green goods and services should as time goes by become cheaper and hence more attractive as demand naturally increases from the public. However, this process is already happening somewhat "slowly" but there are marketing stratagies which could artificially alter this situation, and this needs to be developed to create green competition using small or large subsidies. Companies that could loose out at first would be compensated using new capital created ex nihilo. The details of exactly how green artificial "competition" works is still being developed in detail at the time of writing.Moreover, shortages of certain products may occur and there may be a degree market distortion. This could be dealt with to a large extent via "instataneous"compensation.
IV.The originator of TFE is very much aware that Transfinancial Economics would increase emissions. This is unfortunate but hopefully with further funding the way or ways to deal with this problem would be better funded as never before. There are ofcourse a number of so-called carbon capture programmes in the world, but much more like this needs to be done. Anyway, all this means is that if we have Rapid Green Growth or RGG many people would still die during the Climate Change Crisis. This is tragically unavoidable. But if this were slowly undertaken (as is the case now) it is more probable that the death toll would be much higher in the long run.
V. It is important to understand that when TFE becomes a reality there is no direct or indirect of taxation. The reason is simple. Since money can retain its value in real time it cannot be inflated to a serious degree, and cause devaluation of money. This means ofcourse that more money can be transmitted into the economy safely. All this has notable implications for charities, and NG0s, or non-governmental organisations as it would mean that raising money from earned sources would no longer be absolutely necessary. This is revolutionary. The only limits ofcourse for this are limited human and natural resources at any point in time.
VI. Originally, the above entry included a lengthy piece on TFE but this is not included here, though it may re-appear. It maybe found elsewhere probably on The Economics Realms blogspot.
VII. Furthermore, over the years TFE has been circulated around on the internet, and has attracted a number of influential people including the noted rebell economist Steve Keen (and some of his followers), Ellen Brown, Stephen Zarlenga, Baron Prem Sikka, Richard Murphy, Hazel Henderson (who was especially keen on TFE), and even the present Lord Nathan Rothschild and his family seem to be interested in the new economic paradigm to some extent. There are also some indications that certain commercial entities (ie potential private investors) may be taking some interest in TFE and ofcourse, they could help attract relevant funding for the emergence of TFE into the world.
VIII. Another aspect of this subject is that notably big oil and gas companies could possibly be legally "bribed" and bought up and phased out to make way for an economy run by clean sustainable energy. Admitedly, this may not be the most ethical way of doing things but humanity must come first rather than powerful vested interests.
Finally, it should be said in this brief introduction the originator (ie. Robert Searle) of the TFE System hopes to write a few more papers on some aspect(s) of this subject. At the same time he hopes to fully research and complete a book probably to be entitled Towards Economic Revolution, subtitled Global Financial Reform and the Survival of the Human Race. This may take two years or so and would require help from a whole array of experts including those in economics, business, politics, law, computers, et al.