View source for Long Cycle of Global Politics and the Nation-State

'''* Article: The Long Cycle of Global Politics and the Nation-State. George Modelski. Comparative Studies in Society and History, Vol. 20, No. 2, Varieties of Modernization (Apr., 1978), pp. 214-235'''

URL = https://www.jstor.org/stable/178047

The material below is not directly related to the article, but to the general approach by Modelski.


=Contextual Quote=

"Modelski’s model of geopolitics is not capable of predicting events. It is a historical model that interprets a wealth of historic data in a simplified framework. In other words, it is a descriptive model. Also, Modelski’s model is useful, but only within certain parameters. His view of geopolitics is limited to conflicts between the major powers; smaller countries and geopolitical actors that are not countries are not included in this model. However, the model is useful for introducing the idea of a geopolitical structure and offering a context for current geopolitical events."

- Flint [https://www.e-education.psu.edu/geog128/node/646]


=Description=

'''1. George Modelski's Cyclic Model of World Leadership:'''

"Modelski’s model is a historically based theory founded on his interest in naval history. Some key elements of his theory are:

* Power is a function of global reach (the ability to influence events across the globe).

* Historically, world power rested upon the ability to control the oceans (“ocean-going capacity”).

* Ocean-going capacity is measured by the combined tonnage of a country’s military and merchant navies.

* Power in this model is about strength and dominance.

...

* A world leader is able to offer an “innovation” that provides geopolitical order and security.
An innovation refers to bundles of institutions, ideas and practices.


* Cycles of world leadership are dynamic—they rise and fall.


Each cycle of world leadership is comprised of four phases (pg 199):

# Phase of global war
# Phase of world power
# Phase of delegitimation
# Phase of deconcentration ."

(https://www.e-education.psu.edu/geog128/node/646)


'''2. Feedback loops in the Modelski model:'''

"Flint discusses the legacy of world leadership by exploring “feedback systems in Modelski’s model” (p. 237). The first feedback system is the “developmental loop”—which explains that the “innovations” brought about by world leaders remain even after their time as a world leader expires. Flint provides the example of the United States—presumably, the innovations of the idea of self-determination as well as institutions such as the United Nations, World Bank and the like, will continue to play a role in future global geopolitics. They may shift and change, but their foundation has been established and thus they will continue to have some influence (even if altered) going forward.

The second feedback system is a “regulatory loop” that “examines the process of an emerging challenger and the establishment of a new world leader” (p. 237). While Flint reminds us that the Modelski model is not a predictive model, it does highlight some historical patterns that can give us insight into possible future outcomes. In particular, he explains that the next world leader does not typically fall to the challenger of the current world leader. Rather, the next world leader is usually one of the coalitions or allied countries. For example, the case of the US and Great Britain followed this process. Germany challenged Great Britain’s role as world leader, which brought on two world wars. Germany needed allies/a coalition to challenge Great Britain’s leadership status. Great Britain, in turn, could not fight off the challenger alone and needed to establish a coalition of allied forces to fend off Germany. Flint explains that both the previous leader (Great Britain) and its challenger (Germany) exhausted their material capacity for power in the long phase of the global war (WWI & WWII). But the US became an increasingly prominent member of the world leaders’ coalition and at the end of the wars, was able to assume the “preeminent global position”. Thus, Flint explains, we might look at this pattern in history to make an educated guess that the next nation to rise to world power will be among the US’s allies, rather than its adversaries.

However, Flint does caution us that the Modelski model views global geopolitics through a prism that only considers the state to be a key strategic actor. The rise of non-state actors as legitimate threats complicates the model in a way that is yet to be resolved."

(https://www.e-education.psu.edu/geog128/node/646)


=Discussion=

==Long Cycle Theory==

Wikipedia:

"George Modelski, who presented his ideas in the book, Long Cycles in World Politics (1987), is the chief architect of long cycle theory. In a nutshell, long cycle theory describes the connection between war cycles, economic supremacy, and the political aspects of world leadership.

Long cycles, or long waves, offer interesting perspectives on global politics by permitting "the careful exploration of the ways in which world wars have recurred, and lead states such as Britain and the United States have succeeded each other in an orderly manner." The long cycle is a period of time lasting approximately 70 to 100 years. Modelski divides the long cycle into four phases. When periods of global war, which could last as much as one-fourth of the total long cycle, are factored in, the cycle can last from 87 to 122 years.

Many traditional theories of international relations, including the other approaches to hegemony, believe that the baseline nature of the international system is anarchy. Modelski's long cycle theory, however, states that war and other destabilizing events are a natural product of the long cycle and larger global system cycle. They are part of the living processes of the global polity and social order. Wars are "systemic decisions" that "punctuate the movement of the system at regular intervals." Because "world politics is not a random process of hit or miss, win or lose, depending on the luck of the draw or the brute strength of the contestants," anarchy simply doesn't play a role. After all, long cycles have provided, for the last five centuries, a means for the successive selection and operation of numerous world leaders.

Modelski used to believe that long cycles were a product of the modern period. He suggests that the five long cycles, which have taken place since about 1500, are each a part of a larger global system cycle, or the modern world system. Under the terms of long cycle theory, five hegemonic long cycles have taken place, each strongly correlating to economic Kondratieff Waves (or K-Waves). The first hegemon would have been Portugal during the 16th century, then the Netherlands during the 17th century. Next, Great Britain served twice, first during the 18th century, then during the 19th century. The United States has been serving as hegemon since the end of World War II."

(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hegemonic_stability_theory)


=More information=

* * [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hegemonic_stability_theory Hegemonic Stability Theory]]

[[Category:Geopolitics]]
[[Category:P2P_Cycles]]
[[Category:P2P_State_Approaches]]
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