George Modelski's Cycle of World Leadership
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Discussion
Melissa Y. Rock on Modelski’s World Leadership Cycle:
"Modelski’s model is a historically based theory founded on his interest in naval history.
Some key elements of his theory are:
- Power is a function of global reach (the ability to influence events across the globe).
- Historically, world power rested upon the ability to control the oceans (“ocean-going capacity”).
- Ocean-going capacity is measured by the combined tonnage of a country’s military and merchant navies.
- Power in this model is about strength and dominance. ...
- A world leader is able to offer an “innovation” that provides geopolitical order and security.
- An innovation refers to bundles of institutions, ideas and practices.
- Cycles of world leadership are dynamic—they rise and fall.
Each cycle of world leadership is comprised of four phases (pg 199):
- Phase of global war
- Phase of world power
- Phase of delegitimation
- Phase of deconcentration"
(https://www.e-education.psu.edu/geog128/node/646)
- Table 7.1 Cycles of World Leadership:
World Leader Century Global War Challenger Coalition Partners
- Portugal // 1500s // 1494-1516 // Spain // Netherlands
- Netherlands // 1600s // 1580-1609 // France // England
- Great Britain // 1700s // 1688-1713 // France // Russia
- Great Britain // 1800s // 1792-1815 // Germany // US plus allies
- United States // 1900s // 1914-1945 // Soviet Union // NATO