Pareto's Theory on Cycles of Elite Succession

Discussion

H. Stuart Hughes:

"With Pareto as with Freud, the implications of the theory of human motivation were what most of us would call pessimistic. In Pareto’s view, man’s political nature was unalterable. Despite revolutions and the reforming activity of demagogues, the lot of the masses remained as it was before. No regime could properly be described as popular. In fact, the whole notion of “the people” was simply another creation of sentimental ideologists. The mass of mankind could not conceivably govern itself; it was incapable even of understanding its own interests. Whatever the slogans under which a particular regime operated, each one was a more or less disguised form of class rule. Political history, then, could be redefined as the history of elites and the vicissitudes they encountered in trying to cling to power.

Hence Pareto also came out eventually with a theory of cycles. These cycles were formed by the ups and downs, by the alternations, of ruling elites. However much such elites might try, they never succeeded permanently in maintaining themselves in authority. The strong, proud men who had seized power in a society would do their best to adjust to circumstances by develop¬ ing the qualities of guile and pliability and by admitting to their ranks qualified and ambitious individuals from the masses. But eventually the sentiments of solidarity, the “ideals” to which they had originally owed their strength, would become diluted, and they would lose their self-confidence as rulers. A new elite possessing the required virtues of ruthlessness and loyalty would overwhelm them. The cycle would return to its beginnings. Such a theory of political and social behavior was obviously conservative in its implications. It taught the masses to despair of change, and the ruling classes to show resolution in maintaining their authority. It gave to the conservatives of Europe — who had been thoroughly beaten in the ideological battles of the nineteenth century — the theoretical basis for a most surprising revival. After a century and a half of intellectualizing about politics, Pareto’s harsh realism represented a return to the wisdom of a Thucydides or a Machiavelli."

Source: H. STUART HUGHES. Oswald Spengler. A CRITICAL ESTIMATE. Scribner's 1952, p. 24. See: A Critical Estimate of Oswald Spengler.