Kondratiev Waves
For extensive treatment, see: Kondratiev Cycles
Definition
George Modelski:
"Let us ... define K-waves in particular as a pattern of regularity characteristic of structural change in the modern global economy. Some 50–60 years in length, it consists of an alternation of start-up periods of slow build-up of globally significant innovations, with others of high growth, chiefly in lead industries, but influencing the entire world system. ... K-waves arise from the bunching of basic innovations that launch technological revolutions that in turn create leading industrial or commercial sectors. ... global economy. Each K-wave has its own characteristic location in space and time. Britain's cotton wave was centered on Manchester. The Information (IT) K-wave (K19) is preferentially seen as originating in the United States, in California's Silicon Valley. K-waves also have a clear location in time, and can be dated. There is no standard listing, but following Kondratieff's practice, there is some agreement on the four or five most recent ones."
(https://www.sociostudies.org/almanac/articles/files/evolution_3/pdf/018-029.pdf)
Periodization
Table from George Modelski:
Table 1. Global economics and politics co-evolving in the modern world system
1. K-Waves 2. Global leading sectors 3. Date 4.
- K1 Printing and paper 930 LC1 Northern Song
- K2 National market 990
- K3 Fiscal framework 1060 LC2 Southern Song
- K4 Maritime trade 1120
- K5 Champagne Fairs 1190 LC3 Genoa
- K6 Black Sea trade 1250
- K7 Galley fleets 1300 LC4 Venice
- K8 Pepper 1350
- K9 Guinea gold 1420 LC5 Portugal
- K10 Spices 1492
- K11 Baltic trade 1540 LC6 Dutch Republic
- K12 Asian trade 1580
- K13 American plantations 1640 LC7 Britain I
- K14 Amerasian trade 1680
- K15 Cotton, iron 1740 LC8 Britain II
- K16 Railroads 1792
- World market
- K17 Electric power, steel 1850 LC9 USA
- K18 Electronics, oil, autos 1914
- K19 Computers, internet (IT)1973 LC10
- K20 2030
(https://www.sociostudies.org/almanac/articles/files/evolution_3/pdf/018-029.pdf)
More information
* Article: Kondratieff Waves, Evolution and Globalization. By George Modelski. In: Evolution: Development within Different Paradigms 2013 18–29.
URL = https://www.sociostudies.org/almanac/articles/files/evolution_3/pdf/018-029.pdf
Abstract: "Contemporary Kondratieff wave (K-wave) studies show two tendencies: one, a macroeconomic analysis that maps long trends of prosperity and depression with GDP data, but second, a sectoral approach that traces the influence of K-waves of basic innovations, and the rise of a succession of leading industrial and/or commercial sectors on the emergence of a global economy. What is more, K-waves are a not stand-alone feature of the modern world system but one in a cascade of processes that have shaped its emergence. They stand in a close relationship with world politics, democratization, and globalization. An evolutionary explanation of K-waves is one that gives a reasoned account of the emergence of the modern global economy over the past millennium, and one that may project equally far into the future."