George Modelski's Cycle of World Leadership

Discussion

Melissa Y. Rock on Modelski’s World Leadership Cycle:

"Modelski’s model is a historically based theory founded on his interest in naval history.

Some key elements of his theory are:

• Power is a function of global reach (the ability to influence events across the globe).

• Historically, world power rested upon the ability to control the oceans (“ocean-going capacity”).

• Ocean-going capacity is measured by the combined tonnage of a country’s military and merchant navies.

• Power in this model is about strength and dominance. ...

• A world leader is able to offer an “innovation” that provides geopolitical order and security.

• An innovation refers to bundles of institutions, ideas and practices.

• Cycles of world leadership are dynamic—they rise and fall.

Each cycle of world leadership is comprised of four phases (pg 199):

1. Phase of global war
2. Phase of world power
3. Phase of delegitimation
4. Phase of deconcentration"

(https://www.e-education.psu.edu/geog128/node/646)

• Table 7.1 Cycles of World Leadership:

World Leader Century Global War Challenger Coalition Partners

1. Portugal // 1500s // 1494-1516 // Spain // Netherlands
2. Netherlands // 1600s // 1580-1609 // France // England
3. Great Britain // 1700s // 1688-1713 // France // Russia
4. Great Britain // 1800s // 1792-1815 // Germany // US plus allies
5. United States // 1900s // 1914-1945 // Soviet Union // NATO