Believability-Weighted Decision Making

From P2P Foundation
Jump to navigation Jump to search


Ray Dalio:

"Once facts and viewpoints are put out there through radical truth and thoughtful disagreement, how do you reconcile them to make the best decisions?

To maintain order and allow the best decisions to surface, people must agree on procedures to resolve disagreements, and abide by the conclusions of the procedures. At Bridgewater, the procedure they use is believability-weighted decision making.

“Believability-weighted” means to weigh the opinions of people who are more believable more heavily than less believable people. This is distinctly different from weighing everyone’s votes equally, as in a democracy.

Who are believable people? They are people who 1) have repeatedly succeeded at the thing in question, and 2) can logically explain their conclusions. It makes sense to value the opinions of successful people more than those with little experience." (