Amara's Law

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Dion Hinchcliffe:

"Amara’s Law states that “we tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.” This is just about true of any major technology shift: There is a hype cycle effect that governs the perception of the new approach. Soon after initial adoption there is disillusionment as the expected transformation failed to happen as quickly as it was expected to. Finally enlightenment blooms as effective use takes hold, longer down the road than expected. This model is now even a popular research presentation approach from Gartner. This is one of my favorite laws and I do see this in effect quite often in traditional businesses with an Internet division: The traditional side of the business is growing in single digits (if they’re lucky) and will be for the foreseeable future. On the Internet side, the business is growing in the low to middle double digits. If you plot this forward 3-5 years, the Internet division will be almost as big as the traditional business or bigger, yet most management is still focused on the old business and not the new “sideshow”." (

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