View source for Peak Civilization, the Great Unraveling and the Great Transition



=Discussion=

Zak Walsh:

"The explosive growth of modern civilization was a historical event predicated on the exploitation of cheap energy reserves buried beneath the Earth’s surface. Now, the population and complexity of society has grown beyond society’s capacity to sustain it via the continued use of fossil fuels. Unless we transition to a sustainable civilization, breakdown will accelerate andwe will have reached the peak of civilization’s development, as harnessing the concentrated energetic potential of planetary history can only happen once.

What we face is a turning point between two futures: The Great Unraveling and the Great Transition (Lavelle & Walsh, 2019). Present-day responses to eco-crisis are split between these two futures characterized by breakdown versus breakthrough. The next decade constitutes what systems theorists call a “decision window.” As social and ecological pressures mount, societies must re-organize themselves or else they face catastrophic collapses as Earth systems irreversibly change (Laszlo, 2012). After 2°C of warming, we begin to reach a Hothouse Earth scenario in which irreversible tipping points (e.g., methane gas release from melting permafrost, melting polar ice packs, forest dieback and desertification) not only permanently destabilize our climate, but also our political and economic systems. Social systems will either be transformed by choice or else they will collapse under their own weight, unable to manage the forthcoming crises as sustaining them becomes too costly. Current systems simply cannot address the magnitude of today’s challenges, and the transition to a new world is inevitable. Change is coming one way or another. It will either be a just or unjust transition.

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Under the Great Unraveling scenario, the ensuing collapse of socio-ecological systems would be utterly devastating. Some of us would survive, but we would live in a world beset by social breakdown and conflict in which deeply unequal societies compete for resources. Over the next few decades, we can expect to face drought-triggered agricultural failures, water-security issues, social unrest, and conflict. By 2050, the International Organization for Migration estimates there will be an exodus of about 200 million climate refugees (Brown, 2008). The UK government predicts that we will experience the collapse of part or all of the Amazonian rainforest, a 25-60% increase in the risk of hunger, and more than a billion people without sufficient water (Stern, 2006).Although the Great Unraveling and Great Transition are typically considered future scenarios, one does not have to look far to find indications that both are already happening. It is becoming evident that global crises are more pronounced and sustained. The COVID pandemic, police brutality, climate disasters, protests and political unrest have been frontpage news for nearly two years. Indigenous people, for example, have experienced the apocalypse (Coleman,2017) and indigenous knowledge has been warning us about climate change for centuries (Harris,2019). “The future is already here,” as William Gibson once said, “It's just not very evenly distributed” (Quote Investigator, 2018).The current political and economic landscape is undergoing structural transformations and capitalism is in terminal decline. As Robert Gordon (2017) illustrates in The Rise and Fall of American Growth, the growth of the global economy has steadily declined since 1970, and thereare no prospects for rising levels of growth in the foreseeable future. Rapid economic growth was in fact a one-time-only event.


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People who accept the Great Unraveling as the only reality tend to embrace rugged individualism, tribalism, and protectionism. They see a dying system and respond reactively under stress. If we do not transition, societal breakdown will likely spur the rise of eco-fascism and embolden white supremacy, authoritarianism, and right-wing nationalism. The most statistically significant variable predicting whether a voter elected Donald Trump was authoritarianism (Macwilliams, 2016), and this is not surprising considering that many people turn to crisis cults during times of collapse. “Make America Great Again!” was Trump’s campaign slogan precisely because it spoke to the collective desire of his primary voting bloc, feeding illusions of recovered grandeur and empowerment.
Slavoj Žižek  (2011) has suggested that capitalism will restructure itself in more authoritarian forms. The increasing popularity of the China model as a viable political responseto the catastrophes of the 21st century support this view."

(https://www.academia.edu/76549452/Transformation_Toward_an_Ecological_Civilization_A_Relational_Appproach_to_a_Just_Transition)

[[Category:Civilizational Analysis]]
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