[p2p-research] A thirty year future of the transition to widescale P2P economies

Ryan Lanham rlanham1963 at gmail.com
Wed Nov 11 01:36:27 CET 2009

How does one get to post-scarcity without robotics?


On Tue, Nov 10, 2009 at 6:55 PM, Michel Bauwens <michelsub2004 at gmail.com>wrote:

> I see a big contradiction between freefall and total robotization, with
> freefall, who's going to invest in total automation?
> so I would add 2 centuries to the robotic prediction, though I'm not at all
> certain that this will occur, I think it's a capitalist fantasy essentially,
> to remove all human contact with making and producing its own livelihood
> (I'm aware of course that leftleaning people have the same vision from
> another angle)
> On Tue, Nov 10, 2009 at 11:29 PM, Ryan Lanham <rlanham1963 at gmail.com>wrote:
>> The intent here is brevity based on highlights...
>> 2010
>> The US begins to move rapidly toward social measures in medicine and
>> climate management that essentially break the back of any notion of a small
>> government state.  In chaos, the Republican Party splits and reforms to
>> advance primarily an anti-immigration agenda.  The United States enters a
>> long period of turning inward that will be copied in Europe and Asia.  The
>> era of international flows and trades is now past its peak.
>> 2014
>> China declares that the new communist vision is growth of opportunity
>> through local joy and happiness, effectively mandating that the People
>> become consumers.  The US dollar, in long decline as a carrying currency,
>> starts to become a secondary currency to the new Pan-Asia unit.
>> 2017
>> Mandarin becomes the first language of the web.  Nearly all children
>> globally begin to study Chinese.  India and China greatly enhance their
>> economic links.
>> 2019
>> Ubiquitous cloud computing and device linkage makes security,
>> communication, income, banking and money all converge.  The average
>> household uses more compute cycles per second than the most powerful
>> supercomputers in 2000.  Provision of electricty and cooling are the major
>> economic components of any household budget having surpassed transportation
>> in 2016.
>> 2020
>> As carbon reaches 425 ppm, the destructive impacts of climate change are
>> now starting to cause massive migrations and social turmoil.  Nations set 10
>> year targets to eliminate fossil fuel from their economies.
>> The United States, which as become an isolated power in its lost decade of
>> economic growth, begins to envision radical restructuring of local economies
>> to reduce carbon outputs and to protect aging populations who are dominant
>> politically and economically, but no longer personally productive.  The old
>> call for robotic support helpers along lines in use in Japan for 1/2 a
>> decade.
>> 2022
>> Most global universities exist only on line.  Older institutions have been
>> turned into open communities and greenscapes with collective governance
>> strategies along lines of co-ops or townhall styled local governments.
>>  Obesity penalities eliminate demands for poor food choices in most of
>> the world.
>> 2025
>> Nearly all projects are capitalized against a social account that builds
>> facilities determined by complex AI-assisted long-range eco-survival plans.
>> Most food and pharmaceutical production occurs within 10 miles of the
>> consumer's living space.  Earth's population peaks at 8 and 3/4 billion.
>> Most fish are extinct that are not in enclosed sea farms.  40% of all
>> known species in 2009 are extinct or severaly endangered.  Many plants have
>> succumbed to warming and treed landscapes outside of near arctic locations
>> or rain forests are rare.
>> 2027
>> Anti-work parties become commonplace along European models started in
>> universities in the 20-teens.  The agendas generally call half-jokingly for
>> "bread and circuses"   Most envision an handover to robots within 20 years
>> for all important managerial and process functions.
>> 2030
>> The computer processing power of integrated software clouds exceeds human
>> brains by several orders of magnitude.  Nearly all software is designed and
>> written by robots.  All medicine is done by robots.  The average age of
>> persons in the US and Europe climbs to 50.   Millions are now living to
>> 110.
>> 2032
>> Nearly all economic activity occurs within 10 miles of one's home.  Robots
>> and cloud computing handle most entertainment, chores, management processes
>> and research.  Humans overwhelmingly work on governing the commons in local
>> pools of advisors to robotic planners.
>> 2035
>> Average age of a human is 44.  In Germany, the average age is 63.  In the
>> US it is 55.  Population is now in freefall...down to roughly 7.5 billion.
>> Plans predict a global population of 2.4 billion humans in 2090 with carbon
>> levels stabilized at 437 ppm.
>> 2040
>> Life is essentially no different in China than it is in Utah or Nigeria.
>> People live in clusters of robotically managed groups with little need for
>> long-range travel or movement.  Exercise is a common "career."  Other
>> similar self-focused careers are designed by robots for people to feel
>> meaning and enjoyment.
>> P2P exchanges of goods and services occur between robots who use excess
>> capacities to perform the production of planned needs.  Shipping is entirely
>> automated.
>> Humans plan for a world with dramatically lower population rates.  Few
>> choose to reproduce because the high social responsibilities entailed in
>> multiple offspring.
>> --
>> Ryan Lanham
>> _______________________________________________
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> --
> Work: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dhurakij_Pundit_University - Research:
> http://www.dpu.ac.th/dpuic/info/Research.html - Think thank:
> http://www.asianforesightinstitute.org/index.php/eng/The-AFI
> P2P Foundation: http://p2pfoundation.net  - http://blog.p2pfoundation.net
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Ryan Lanham
rlanham1963 at gmail.com
Facebook: Ryan_Lanham
P.O. Box 633
Grand Cayman, KY1-1303
Cayman Islands
(345) 916-1712
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