[p2p-research] any insights on oil price manipulation?
michelsub2004 at gmail.com
Sun Aug 16 07:32:36 CEST 2009
On Sat, Aug 15, 2009 at 5:08 PM, chris cook <cojock at hotmail.com> wrote:
> Having now had a chance to read Sepp's posts, they raise interesting
> I am certainly an agnostic on the subject of Climate Change, and the
> questions of the origins and amounts of hydrocarbons I am not qualified to
> But there is IMHO a "Peak Oil" consisting of the maximum sustainable level
> of hydrocarbon production, and the subjects of energy investment against
> energy return (never mind environmental damage of extraction). On the Oil
> Drum site these issues have been extensively debated, by people much better
> qualified than me.
> I'm interested in market structure, and in particular the uniquely toxic
> outcome of the profit motive in an intermediated market.
> I have no doubt whatever that one of the key driving forces behind
> commodity prices is the yield curve.
> Here, Shalom Hamou's idiosyncratic presentation of his ideas
> obscures a deep and powerful insight into commodity pricing (my bold)
> *"When the yield curve is inverted, because of profit maximization, Miners
> & Drillers prefer hoarding a higher proportion of their minerals in the
> ground (their preferred short-term assets) rather than extracting them and
> investing the proceeds in long-term instruments. Hence, the marginal cost of
> extraction of minerals becomes irrelevant to their market price as miners
> stop maximizing their output under the constraint: *"
> Easy oil is pretty much gone in the US, and the big boys sold out years
> ago, as they have in the North Sea. A new generation of easy gas is
> alreadycausing market issues and we can expect perverse outcomes and huge
> market volatility in the US gas market as a result.
> The deployment in the US of stripper wells, and new recovery techniques are
> purely a function of the market price. ie the marginal cost, which is the
> *other* key market price factor. But I think that apart from such
> investment decisions, what production IS in the hands of Big Oil is subject
> to the market disciplines of profit maximisation as Hamou outlines.
> As I said, the only cure to profit maximisation is a Peer to Peer Market
> 3.0, and a move from transaction profits to service provision. This
> transition is in fact already taking place, as sovereign nations assert ever
> greater control over their own resources.
> Plenty more to say, but no time now!
> Best egarss
> Date: Sat, 15 Aug 2009 08:27:28 +0700
> Subject: any insights on oil price manipulation?
> From: michelsub2004 at gmail.com
> To: p2presearch at listcultures.org
> CC: cojock at hotmail.com
> From Sepp:
> Does anyone else have a feeling that oil prices may be purposely steered in
> a desired direction, that changes in oil prices are not necessarily due to a
> physical shortage of oil but to a refusal to develop new (already known)
> sources and ‘judicious’ buying/selling of oil futures to influence the price
> My ideas on this are in these two blog posts:
> Work: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dhurakij_Pundit_University - Research:
> http://www.dpu.ac.th/dpuic/info/Research.html - Think thank:
> P2P Foundation: http://p2pfoundation.net - http://blog.p2pfoundation.net
> Connect: http://p2pfoundation.ning.com; Discuss:
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Work: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dhurakij_Pundit_University - Research:
http://www.dpu.ac.th/dpuic/info/Research.html - Think thank:
P2P Foundation: http://p2pfoundation.net - http://blog.p2pfoundation.net
Connect: http://p2pfoundation.ning.com; Discuss:
Updates: http://del.icio.us/mbauwens; http://friendfeed.com/mbauwens;
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