Sixth Kondratieff Wave

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Discussion

Nefiodow Interpretation

Leonid E. Grinin, Tessaleno C. Devezas,and Andrey V. Korotayev:

"The article by Leo and Simone Nefiodow (‘The Sixth Kondratieff. The Growth Engine of the 21st Century’) introduces a method that is able to predict Kondratieff cycles in their early phase and describe them in ever-greater detail during their further development. This method was first published in1996 (Nefiodow 1996). The authors believe that the fifth Kondratieff shaped economic events during the 1990s, and the new, sixth Kondratieff, is still in its early stage. This wave became possible because of the start of the formation of a new technological paradigm (new medical technologies and biotechnologies)whose development we have been observing during the last two decades. The Nefiodows believe that these are the technologies that will become the core of the new paradigm. At the same time they argue that psychosocial health(which, according to the authors, cover not only psychotherapeutic and psychiatric services, but also numerous measures of people's health improvement),will be the second leading way of the sixth K-wave."

(https://www.researchgate.net/publication/327333296_Cyclical_Dynamics_in_Economics_and_Politics_in_the_Past_and_in_the_Future)


Grinin Interpretation

Leonid E. Grinin, Tessaleno C. Devezas,and Andrey V. Korotayev:

"Leonid and Anton Grinin (‘The Sixth Kondratieff Wave and the Cybernetic Revolution’) differ from the Nefiodows, as they maintain that the sixth Kondratieff wave has not yet started – it will rather begin in the 2020s. The authors, based on their theory of production principles and production revolutions, reveal the interrelation between K-waves and major technological breakthroughs in history (for more detail about the latter see Grinin 2007a, 2012; Grinin and Grinin 2013). They make forecasts about the features of the sixth Kondratieff wave and its forthcoming technological paradigm in the light of the Cybernetic Revolution which, from their point of view, started in the 1950s. They assume that the sixth K-wave in the 2030sand 2040s will merge with the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution (which they call the phase of self-regulating systems). According to them, this period will be characterized by a breakthrough in medical technologies, which will be capable to combine many other technologies into a single complex of MBNRIC-technologies(medico-bio-nano-roboto-info-cognitive technologies).

(https://www.researchgate.net/publication/327333296_Cyclical_Dynamics_in_Economics_and_Politics_in_the_Past_and_in_the_Future)


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