Future Value of Ecosystem Services

* Article: The future value of ecosystem services: Global scenarios and national implications. By Ida Kubiszewski, Robert Costanza, Sharolyn Anderson et al. Ecosystem Services, Ecosystem Services 26 (2017) 289–301, June 2017

URL = http://www.idakub.com/academics/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/2017_J_Kubiszewski_ESscenarios.pdf

Summary

Robert Costanza & Ida Kubiszewski:

This paper "estimates the future value of global ecosystem services under four scenarios to the year 2050. Results show that the global value of ecosystem services can either decrease by USD $51 trillion/yr or increase by USD $30 trillion/yr, depending on which scenario we choose. The latter scenario adopts policies similar to those required to achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals, which would greatly enhance ecosystem services, human wellbeing, and sustainability."

Abstract

"We estimated the future value of ecosystem services in monetary units for 4 alternative global land use and management scenarios based on the Great Transition Initiative (GTI) scenarios to the year 2050. We used previous estimates of the per biome values of ecosystem services in 2011 as the basis for comparison. We mapped projected land-use for 16 biomes at 1 km2 resolution globally for each scenario. This, combined with differences in land management for each scenario, created estimates of global ecosystem services values that also allowed for examinations of individual countries. Results show that under different scenarios the global value of ecosystem services can decline by $51 trillion/yr or increase by USD $30 trillion/yr. In addition to the global values, we report totals for all countries and maps for a few example countries. Results show that adopting a set of policies similar to those required to achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals, would greatly enhance ecosystem services, human wellbeing, and sustainability."